A year on, mystery shrouds Thailand's deadly unrest

An anti-government ''red shirt'' protester wears a fancy hat as she joins others attending a rally at Ratchaprasong intersection at Bangkok's shopping district May 19, 2011.

BANGKOK (Reuters) - A 30-metre (98-ft) corrugated iron wall masks the remnants of a mysterious arson attack a year ago on Southeast Asia's second-biggest shopping mall, a reminder of Thailand's struggle to tame a crisis many fear could turn violent again during elections.

Despite an official investigation, it remains unclear who started the massive fire on May 19, 2010, a day when the military used force to break up an encampment next to the shopping plaza where tens of thousands of red-shirted protesters had called for fresh elections.

It is one of many unanswered questions following clashes between protesters and troops from April 10 to May 19 last year that killed 91 people, wounded more than 1,800 and reduced one of Asia's most dynamic cities to scenes of chaotic street fighting, smouldering fires and 9 p.m. night curfews.

Around 7,000 red shirts rallied on Thursday near the site of the crackdown, waving flags and holding placards calling for justice for those killed.

The burning of Thailand's busiest shopping plaza was seen by Bangkok's middle classes as a desperate act of sabotage by an unruly mob hired by an exiled former premier seeking to wrestle back power.

While the government blames the red shirts for the attack on Central World, the sophistication of the destruction and photographs showing armed men in the building before the fire have raised questions of whether the military-backed government of Prime Minister Abhisit Vejjajiva had a hand in the arson.

"If the red shirts set the fire, it would have been much smaller, since they didn't have the tools or the expertise," Thaksin Shinawatra, the ousted former prime minister and red shirts' figurehead, told the Post Today newspaper this week.

His sister, Yingluck, leads the opposition in an election scheduled for July 3.

As Thailand braces for elections, investigations into the fire and the 91 deaths have made little headway, offering political ammunition to the opposition Puea Thai Party whose support appears to be gathering momentum.

With rivalry fierce between Thailand's political camps, many fear the election results will be contested, or powerful forces might seek to manipulate the formation of a new government, which is widely expected to be a coalition.

The biggest risk, analysts say, is that perceived injustices could ignite another round of instability in Southeast Asia's second-biggest economy, one of the region's most attractive destinations for foreign tourists and investors.

Police probes and a state investigation into the violence are largely inconclusive, ID:nSGE6B902Q] and tainted by allegations of political interference, while fact-finding panels have failed to unearth what exactly happened.

CONSPIRACY THEORIES

The shopping plaza, one of 39 buildings set on fire on May 19, 2010 after the military clashed with protesters, was a perfect target for disenfranchised red shirts disdainful of Thailand's moneyed, politically powerful elite.

After the fire that gutted the mall's 'Zen' department store, blame immediately fell on the red shirts. But conspiracy theories abound over the motives and identity of the arsonists.

Authorities said calls by protest leaders to "burn" Bangkok prove their guilt, and the black outfits worn by the arsonists caught on camera were consistent with shadowy gunmen allied with the red shirts.

But the opposition and its red shirt allies say the arson was planned by the military and its establishment allies to discredit protesters and win support in Bangkok.

Robert Amsterdam, a lawyer for Thaksin, submitted a petition on January 31 to the International Criminal Court in the Hague accusing the Thai government and military of crimes against humanity during the April-May 2010 suppression of the protests.

A document produced by Amsterdam & Peroff LLP as part of the petition quotes an "Anonymous Witness No. 22" -- a statement compiled from what the law firm says is the testimony of several military officers -- as saying "a team of arsonists contracted by the army" planted "incendiary devices inside Central World."

"The operation was planned by the army leadership, with the consent and approval of the government leadership, several weeks in advance of May 19," it said.

The Thai government denied the allegation.

Internet web boards have also posted images showing the saboteurs' military-issue boots and their use of walkie-talkies similar to those used by the army. The fact that the mall was set on fire long after the military had seized control of the protest site has not been explained.

A study published this month by New York-based Human Rights Watch blames both sides for last year's violence, criticising the military for "excessive and unnecessary lethal force" and the red shirts for calls to riot and harbouring black-clad militants who fought the army.

"There's some legal movement against demonstrators but no honest self examination or holding to account by the authorities and officials involved," said Benjamin Zawacki, a researcher at London-based Amnesty International. "So far, none of the root causes have been addressed."

An estimated 800 demonstrators were detained under emergency laws and more than 130 are still held, unable to afford bail averaging 500,000 baht. To date, 22 have been convicted of offences while no state officials have faced charges, according to the Truth and Reconciliation Committee investigating the unrest.

(Additional reporting by Ploy Ten Kate; Editing by Jason Szep and Daniel Magnowski)