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NYMEX-Crude rebounds on Goldman forecast, dollar

Tue May 24, 2011 5:45pm EDT

 * Goldman Sachs lifts Brent price forecasts for 2011, 2012
 * Dollar softens as euro off 2-month low on German data
 * Coming up: API oil data at 4:30 p.m. EDT on Tuesday
 NEW YORK, May 24 (Reuters) - U.S. crude futures rebounded
nearly 2 percent on Tuesday after Goldman Sachs lifted its
price forecast on Brent crude, the dollar weakened and economic
data showed rising sales of U.S. single-family homes.
 Trading was choppy, with gains pared around midday after
after front-month July contract CLN1 hit a session high of
$100.09 a barrel, which provoked some profit-taking.
 June RBOB gasoline futures RBM1 also lent some support to
crude futures, rising above $3 a gallon early, then paring
gains on news that Irving Oil of Canada had restarted a
gasoline unit, which was shut down earlier this week. The
shutdown had lifted June gasoline initially on Monday.
 Traders were refocusing on weekly inventory data, forecast
to show that domestic crude stocks fell 1.3 million barrels
last week, a Reuters poll of analysts showed. [EIA/S]
 Distillate stocks were forecast up 100,000 barrels and
gasoline supplies up 300,000 barrels, the poll showed.
 The Commodity Futures Trading Commission said it charged
oil trader Arcadia and Parnon Energy and two of their senior
traders in a civil complaint with artificially driving up crude
oil prices three years ago, netting illegal gains of more than
$50 million. [ID:nN24273712]
 FUNDAMENTALS
 * On the New York Mercantile Exchange, July crude settled
at $99.59 a barrel, gaining $1.89. or 1.93 percent after
trading between $96.61 to $100.09.
 * Goldman Sachs (GS.N) raised its year-end target for Brent
to $120 per barrel from $105, and its 2012 forecast to $140
from $120, saying it expects fuel demand growth will sap global
supply and strain OPEC's spare oil output capacity.
[ID:nL3E7GO153]
 * Goldman's rival Morgan Stanley also made a bullish call
on Brent crude, raising its 2011 forecast for the crude grade
to $120 a barrel, from $100 previously. For 2012, Morgan
Stanley put a target of $130 on Brent, from $105 previously.
[ID:nL3E7GO054]
* U.S. retail gasoline demand fell 3 percent in the week to
May 20 compared with the same period a year ago while demand
fell 1.4 percent compared with the previous week's level, a
weekly report by MasterCard Advisors' SpendingPulse showed.
[ID:nN24275452]
 * Sales of newly built U.S. single-family home sales rose
for a second straight month in April and supply was the lowest
in a year, but an overhand of previously owned houses on the
market coulod hobble recovery. [pID:NN24237107]
 * St. Louis Federal Reserve Bank President James Bullard
said  the U.S. economy is poised for steady improvement despite
the possibility it could be thrown off course by shocks,
including financial instability stemming from sovereign debt
crises in Europe. [ID:nWEN3580]
* Top Libyan oil official Shokri Ghanem has not defected,
contrary to widespread reports, and is secretly working for
Muammar Gaddafi to maintain ties with big oil companies,
sources at western firms said. [ID:nLDE74N0UN]
 * The United States announced new sanctions on Venezuela's
state oil company PDVSA and six other smaller oil and shipping
companies for engaging in trade with Iran in violation of a
U.S. ban. [ID:nWAT015132]
* Jet fuel traders are on alert for flight disruptions after
an ash cloud from an Icelandic volcano reached air space over
parts of Britain and Ireland on Tuesday, knocking the fuel's
prices lower. [ID:nLDE74N02E] [ID:nLDE74N13K]
 * An explosion at an Iranian oil refinery during a visit by
President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad killed two people and injured 12,
the Mehr news agency said. [ID:nLDE74N04S]
 MARKETS NEWS
 * U.S. equities slipped as a rebound in commodity prices
failed to offset lingering concerns about a slowdown in
manufacturing growth. [.N]
 * The euro pulled away from a two-month low against the
dollar after better-than-expected German business sentiment
data, but euro-zone debt worries persisted [USD/]
 * Gold rose to its highest in about three weeks as concerns
about a spreading EU debt crisis fueled safe-haven buying and
the euro's gains versus the dollar added support. [GOL/]
 * Copper recovered from the previous session's 3 percent
dive, hbut worries about Europe's sovereigh debt problems and
Chinese demand was seen limiting any near-term rally. [MET/L]
 UPCOMING DATA/EVENTS
 * U.S. Energy Information Administration weekly oil
inventory data released at 10:30 a.m. EDT (1430 GMT) on
Wednesday.
    SETTLE     NET    PCT     LOW    HIGH  CURRENT  DAY AGO
              CHNG   CHNG                      VOL      VOL
CLc1    99.59    1.89   1.9%   96.61  100.09  321,349  296,828
CLc2   100.06    1.92   2.0%   97.13  100.54   60,720   50,132
LCOc1  112.53    2.43   2.2%  109.50  112.65  184,832  191,503
RBc1   2.9928  0.0547   1.9%  2.9185  3.0256   21,722   35,479
RBc2   2.9580  0.0521   1.8%  2.8833  2.9850   46,990   40,873
HOc1   2.9097  0.0626   2.2%  2.8279  2.9176   16,401   26,578
HOc2   2.9213  0.0616   2.2%  2.8401  2.9300   40,581   46,384
TOTAL MARKET            VOLUME                 OPEN  INTEREST
          CURRENT    May 23   30D AVG     May 23  NET CHNG
CRUDE        522,360   491,529   685,610  1,534,010    -4,380
RBOB         110,075   113,370   155,361    271,018    -2,135
HO            81,729   106,712   122,494    316,011     1,110
 (Reporting by Gene Ramos and Robert Gibbons; Editing by David
Gregorio)


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