Indonesia's May CPI slows to 5.98 pct y/y, above forecast

Wed Jun 1, 2011 12:13am EDT

 * May CPI 0.12 pct m/m, above forecast of 0.06 pct
 * May CPI up 5.98 pct y/y, above forecast of 5.92 pct
 * May core CPI up 4.64 pct y/y, below forecast of 4.70 pct
 JAKARTA, June 1 (Reuters) - Indonesia's May consumer price index from the
country's statistics bureau.	
 	
 KEY DATA:	
 CPI          (y/y pct change)   (m/m pct change)
 May          5.98               May          0.12
 April        6.16               April        -0.31
 March        6.65               March        -0.32
 Feb          6.84               Feb          0.13
 Jan          7.02               Jan          0.89
 Dec          6.96               Dec          0.92
 Nov          6.33               Nov          0.60
 Oct          5.67               Oct          0.06
 Sept         5.80               Sept         0.44
 Aug          6.44               Aug          0.76
 July         6.22               July         1.57
 June         5.05               June         0.97
 May          4.16               May          0.29
 April        3.91               April        0.15
 March        3.43               March        -0.14
 Feb          3.81               Feb          0.30
 Jan          3.72               Jan          0.84
 Dec          2.78               Dec          0.33
 Nov          2.41               Nov          -0.03
 Oct          2.57               Oct          0.19
 Sept         2.83               Sept         1.05
 Aug          2.75               Aug          0.56
 July         2.71               July         0.45
 June         3.65               June         0.11
 May          6.04               May          0.04
 April        7.31               April        -0.31
 March        7.92               March        0.22
 Feb          8.60               Feb          0.21
	
 CONTEXT:	
 Indonesia's annual inflation rate was seen easing to a seven-month low of
5.92 percent in May, but was expected to pick up 0.06 percent on a monthly basis
as food prices have been creeping up, analysts said.	
 The annual inflation forecast was in line with the central bank's estimate
of 5.8 to 5.9 percent, and the bank's deputy governor said the country's 2011
full-year inflation could be lower than 5.5 percent if there are no fuel price
hikes this year. [ID:nJKB004541] [ID:nJKB004533]	
 Core inflation -- which excludes administered prices and volatile foods --
was seen picking up again to 4.70 percent year-on-year, as strong demand boosts
broader economic growth.	
 However, analysts expect Indonesia's central bank to leave rates unchanged
for the fourth consecutive month at 6.75 percent at its next policy meeting on
June 9, as it is letting the rupiah currency strengthen to help reduce
imported inflation.	
 Most analysts have scaled back rate rise expectations to the second half of
this year, forecasting the central bank will hike rates by 50 basis points to
7.25 percent by the end of 2011 to guard against inflation.	
 Cooler inflation after Bank Indonesia surprisingly hiked rates by 25 basis
points in February to calm the market has helped revive investor confidence.	
 Foreigners have returned to buy Indonesian government bonds 
after a sell-off early this year, with net buying of 4.48 trillion rupiah ($524
million) in May.	
 Bank Indonesia's last policy statement in May was seen as less hawkish
because it did not reiterate previous statements to remain in a tightening
stance nor say there was room for further rate adjustments to manage
inflationary pressures.	
 	
 LINKS:	
 - Indonesia's statistics bureau: .... www.bps.go.id	
 - CPI breakdown ................................. 	
	
 (Reporting by Aditya Suharmoko and Adriana Nina Kusuma; Editing by Neil
Chatterjee)	
 
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