Reuters Summit-WRAPUP-Supply worries to keep oil above $100

(For other news from the Reuters Global Energy and Climate Summit, click here

* Supply shortage seen looming later this year

* "Close trade quick" if price spikes to 2008 peaks

* Demand destruction, China worries key downside risks

By Dmitry Zhdannikov

LONDON, June 16 (Reuters) - Oil prices will stay above $100 a barrel in the next year as supply worries outweigh concerns about flagging global economic growth, a Reuters survey of oil industry officials, executives and traders showed.

Eight of 20 participants in the Reuters Energy and Climate Summit said they saw oil trading between $110 and $130 a barrel in June 2012, eight saw prices between $90 and $100 and three saw prices above $130. Only one respondent saw prices between $70 and $90 per barrel.

"We have a structural increase in demand emanating from the developing countries, which really is not being met by an increase in supply," said Peter Csoregh from Robeco, a 150 billion euro ($212.1 billion) fund, with 100 million euros in natural resources equities.

A failure by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) to boost output last week, despite calls from the West to help protect economic growth, has fueled debate over whether OPEC and leading member Saudi Arabia have enough spare capacity to open the taps if demand rises and prices spike. [ID:nN13138830]

"OPEC is a diminishing force," said Andrew Moorfield, top oil banker at Lloyds.

OPEC Secretary-General Abdullah Al Badri said he saw a risk of an oil price spike and supply shortages but said OPEC would do its utmost to avoid this.

"These targets are not relevant anymore," he said when asked if OPEC would stick to output quotas, thus giving Saudi Arabia the green light to pump as much as it wants. [ID:nLDE75D1C4]

James Janoskey, head of the oil and gas for Europe at Credit Suisse (CSGN.VX), said more crude from OPEC should prevent prices from rising back to their 2008 peak of $147 per barrel unless things went massively wrong.

"The general view is that the market believes (Saudi Arabia) can absorb a reasonable increase in demand. But there is a concern about the ability to absorb a big geopolitical event which reduces oil supply," he said.

UNKNOWN REGIMES

Janoskey said issues that could push oil prices higher included a new wave of unrest in the Middle East and a repetition of an event like BP's oil spill last year in the Gulf of Mexico, which shut down parts of the oil industry.

Citigroup (C.N) global head of energy Stephen Trauber said it was too early to call an end to tensions in the Middle East.

"We don't know how they play against each other. That to me leaves a lot of political uncertainty around the Middle East for years if not decades to come," he said.

Any steep spike in the oil price from the current levels would be, however, short lived as the fragile global economy would barely tolerate a price of $120-$130 a barrel.

"If we spike to $140, close your trade pretty quickly because the route down is going to be pretty sharp," said Jonathan Waghorn co-manager at the $4 billion Investec Global Energy Fund.

DOWNSIDE RISKS AND BLACK SWANS

Waghorn says the risk of demand destruction was underestimated if prices spiked further from current levels.

The price of gasoline was likely to become a political issue with U.S. elections pending in 2012: "Consumers are going to vote with their personal disposable income."

Alongside demand destruction in the United States, the world's largest oil consumer, a slowdown in the Chinese economy, the world's No.2 oil consumer, is causing most worries for oil market participants.

A slowdown of the Chinese growth to 4-5 percent would cause a major shock but woould not however change the long-term view.

"Given that the underlying trend for China is one of sustained growth, if there are a few wobbles on the way you have to look at medium and long-term growth," said Moorfield.

For Robeco's Csoregh things look more complicated.

"The black swan scenario is really that China is one big Ponzi scheme. They are pushing down the factory input costs to an extreme level to achieve a certain type of growth but if you look at what they spending the money on, are these really productive assets? What can you do with these assets?" (Reporting by Dmitry Zhdannikov; editing by Christopher Johnson)