WRAPUP 8-U.S. eyes debt compromise under deadline squeeze

Wed Jul 27, 2011 7:49pm EDT

* Congressional leaders talk behind scenes about options

* Markets still expect late deal but nerves apparent

* Reid says could incorporate parts of Boehner plan

* World leery of impact of U.S. default, credit downgrade (Adds Boehner canvassing support, Tea Party pressure, analysts confidence in final deal, international fears)

By Richard Cowan and Andy Sullivan

WASHINGTON, July 27 (Reuters) - Top Republicans and Democrats worked behind the scenes on Wednesday on a compromise to avert a crippling U.S. default, looking to salvage a last-minute deal from rival debt plans that have little chance of winning broad congressional approval on their own.

With financial markets increasingly on edge, the White House said it saw no alternative to striking a deal to raise the government's borrowing limit by an Aug. 2 deadline to allow the world's largest economy to keep paying all of its bills.

"People keep looking for off-ramps. They don't exist," White House spokesman Jay Carney told reporters, saying the government would be "running on fumes" after the deadline unless the limit was raised.

Even if a deal is reached to lift the $14.3 trillion debt ceiling, a budget plan that flinches from hefty cuts in the deficit may result in a downgrade of the top-notch U.S. credit rating, which would push up U.S. and global borrowing costs.

The faltering moves to break the deadlock are already weighing on investors. Along with the uncertainty, Wall Street was hit by weak earnings and lackluster economic data, suffering its worst day in eight weeks. [ID:nN1E76Q1Z8]

"The market is beginning to show real concerns in terms of a default. I don't think it's going to happen ... (but) are we headed for a downgrade? That is becoming more of a possibility as each day goes by," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Avalon Partners in New York.

The U.S. dollar rebounded after a sell-off this week but policy makers in countries from Japan to France fretted over how a crisis of confidence in U.S. solvency could spill into the international economy.

Worried investors shifted funds into traditional safe havens gold and the Swiss franc, which both rose to record highs in dollar terms.

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Leaders in the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and Democratic-controlled Senate scrambled to find common ground but complications with their competing plans could send attempts at a compromise right down to the wire.

"You're going to have to make sure that you can have a spending cut package that can pass both chambers -- there's going to be some work to do there," senior White House adviser David Plouffe said on the PBS show "NewsHour."

President Barack Obama, a Democrat who will seek a second term in November 2012 elections, has been largely consigned to the sidelines for now.

Senate Democratic Leader Harry Reid, House Speaker John Boehner, the top Republican in Congress, and Senate Republican Leader Mitch McConnell have been talking about how to break the impasse, several lawmakers said.

"GET YOUR ASS IN LINE"

Boehner, facing a mutiny by Republican lawmakers aligned with the fiscally conservative Tea Party movement, has been feverishly canvassing support for a vote on Thursday on his reworked deficit reduction bill. It is expected to be close.

At a morning meeting, he appeared to be firming up support from several wavering lawmakers as he told them to "get your ass in line" behind what he has described as the best chance to win the deep spending cuts that Republicans seek.

His bill is not expected to pass the Senate but his negotiating position could be strengthened if it gets the 217 votes needed in the House.

If it fails, Boehner would be weakened and his job may be on the line. [ID:nN1E76Q1PW]

If Congress does not increase the debt limit, the United States could eventually suffer its first full government default that could put its faltering economic recovery into reverse and send shock waves through the global economy.

Analysts expressed confidence a deal could be reached.

"We continue to believe it is overwhelmingly likely that a debt deal is passed without a crisis," Eurasia Group said in a briefing note. "The two sides have furnished proposals that significantly overlap and leave room for compromise."

Reid said he could easily modify his own bill to incorporate elements of Boehner's bill in a way that could win support from both parties in the Senate. This would improve the chances for a compromise deal that has so far been elusive.

"There will be sufficient cooperation so a bill will pass that allows the debt limit to be lifted, with deficit reduction," Democratic Senator Max Baucus said.

Both sides acknowledge similarities between their plans.

Reid's measure has a concession aimed at winning Republican support -- no tax increases. It also cuts more spending than Boehner's proposal, according to an independent assessment.

Tea Party groups have called on Republican lawmakers to reject any compromise, including the Boehner plan.

A Tea Party rally outside the Capitol in Washington drew about 40 participants, including presidential candidate Herman Cain, who urged Republican leaders to "hold the line" in demanding spending cuts and opposing tax increases.

"Government's too big. That's what this is about," said one protester, Kathy Smith from Fairfax, Virginia.

WORLD "NEEDS" U.S. DEBT DEAL

Boehner rushed to revise his two-step proposal after an analysis by the non-partisan Congressional Budget Office found it would cut spending by $350 billion less than the $1.2 trillion over 10 years he had claimed.

His new plan, which may make it easier for him to obtain backing from fiscal conservatives, reduces the debt ceiling increase to a maximum of $900 billion, covering the nation's borrowing needs until about November. A technical tweak boosts the projected spending cuts to $917 billion.

Obama opposes the Boehner plan because it would extend borrowing authority only temporarily, risking a rerun of the debt standoff during the 2012 election campaign.

Senate Democratic aides said they hoped support would grow for Reid's one-step remedy, which Obama backs, if Boehner's plan is killed, either by the House or Senate.

Some analysts say the government may have enough cash on hand to pay bills until the middle of the month but the Obama administration says the Aug. 2 deadline is unavoidable.

"A default or downgrade on U.S. debt would cause considerable problems for Japan's financial system," said Hidetoshi Kamezaki, a board member of the Bank of Japan. "As the world's biggest economy, the U.S. would have an immeasurable impact on global financial markets and Japan would not escape the damage." [ID:nT9E7IC027]

France's budget minister, Valerie Pecresse, urged Washington to come to an agreement.

"The global economy needs an American agreement," Pecresse said. [ID:nP6E7I103Y] (Additional reporting by Deborah Charles, Andy Sullivan, Kim Dixon, Dave Clarke, Lily Kuo, Donna Smith, Alister Bull, Caren Bohan, Tabassum Zakaria and Laura MacInnis; writing by Matt Spetalnick and Pascal Fletcher; Editing by John O'Callaghan)

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Comments (4)
zenduane wrote:
Time to dust off the Constitution and go for “Plan 14.” The Tea Partiers cannot be controlled by Boehner or the US Chamber of Commerce that got them elected. The TP’s can’t even agree with each other let alone their leadership, the Senate, or the President. Oh for the days of Tip O’Neill or even Nancy Pelosi. They at least knew how to forge consensus.

Jul 27, 2011 1:25am EDT  --  Report as abuse
turncoat wrote:
Eliminate tax cuts, tax breaks, tax loopholes the rich have enjoyed since the Clinton administration and then increase taxes for the wealthy. After that you can start looking for ways to trim the federal budget and to curtail new programs and new spending until we have a surplus budget again.

Jul 27, 2011 1:28am EDT  --  Report as abuse
Boehner can’t even do basic math. His plan doesn’t add up. More Republican ineptitude. Gotta wonder how good America would be without Fox News to prop up these fools.

Jul 27, 2011 1:31am EDT  --  Report as abuse
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