Moody's cautious about U.S. deficit cuts plan

NEW YORK Mon Aug 8, 2011 11:56am EDT

A Moody's sign on the 7 World Trade Center tower is photographed in New York August 2, 2011. REUTERS/Mike Segar

A Moody's sign on the 7 World Trade Center tower is photographed in New York August 2, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Mike Segar

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Ratings agency Moody's Investors Service on Monday warned it might also downgrade the U.S. government's credit rating if its planned measures to reduce its budget deficit turned out to be not "credible" after all.

In his first comments after the move by rival rating agency S&P, Moody's analyst Steven Hess sounded a note of caution about Moody's rating of the U.S., repeating that the August 2 plan to cut deficits by $2.1 trillion was positive for the U.S. credit standing, but not enough to keep its rating on a stable outlook.

On Friday Standard and Poor's downgraded the U.S. long term rating to AA-plus from AAA.

Moody's had earlier put the US on "review for downgrade" on July 13 before removing the ratings watch and affirming the AAA rating on August 2, after the U.S. Congress passed a measure cutting the fiscal deficit and raising the statutory borrowing limit.

"If the process for further deficit reduction that is included in the budget control act produces results that are not really credible, that combined with the economic performance could potentially cause an early move on the rating," Hess told Reuters in an interview.

Even the $917 billion in savings that have already been agreed by Republicans and Democrats are not guaranteed in the long term, Hess said.

Those savings come mostly from slowing the growth of the discretionary programs that Congress approves annually, covering everything from the military to food inspection.

"One can have doubts about it," he said. "We certainly believe that it's credible in the near term but we can have doubts about its enforceability over the long term because future Congress can always change that."

If the United States manages to keep its AAA rating until the end of 2012, Moody's will likely take into account how the government will handle the expiration of Bush-era tax cuts to make a decision on the AAA rating, currently under a negative outlook.

Plans from the next administration for additional deficit-reduction measures will also be taken into consideration, Hess said.

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Comments (44)
DrBjerkebek wrote:
By going political, S&P has marginalized itself. It only rates credit. It does not set government policy. The US simply can not kick entitlement recipients under the bus to eliminate debt. Nor can it shrink its military arbitrarily to please S&P.

The debt has accumulated over years, thus will take years to eliminate. We need (as I’ve said many times) to establish our long term goals and timelines. The outcome of the Super Congress must, must have timelines established as much as reduction amount tied to programs to be meaningful. This is the House and Senate’s job, not S&P’s.

Aug 08, 2011 4:05am EDT  --  Report as abuse
Biscayne wrote:
Had S&P done its job, this whole financial crisis would not have happened. These criminals on the take have the gall, I tell you.
But it all makes sense. Now they talk about more cuts in spending to reduce the deficit but I see no mention of raising government revenue, which suits their paymasters perfectly.

Aug 08, 2011 5:17am EDT  --  Report as abuse
Wizardling wrote:
How have S&P “gone political”? Seems to be it would be “going political” if they kept rating the US AAA no matter what. And whose fault is it if traders take a downgrade by a credit rating firm too seriously? Sheesh – grow up and take some personal responsibility, for crying out loud.

Aug 08, 2011 6:00am EDT  --  Report as abuse
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