METALS-Copper ends up with broader market risk recovery

Thu Aug 11, 2011 2:57pm EDT

 * Copper posts biggest one-day rally since Nov. 2010
 * Base metals markets eye yuan appreciation
 * Coming up: U.S. July retail sales data Friday
 (Rewrites, updates with closing New York price, adds graphics,
analyst comments, New York dateline/byline)
 By Chris Kelly and Pratima Desai
 NEW YORK/LONDON, Aug 11 (Reuters) - Copper ended up on Thursday
for only the second time this month but posted its biggest daily gain
in nearly nine months, as positive economic signals in the world's
top-two consumers powered the rally.
 Economic confidence, which has been savaged in recent days from a
credit rating downgrade in the United States and concerns over a
spreading debt crisis in Europe, was partly restored after an
appreciation in the Chinese yuan and relatively positive U.S. labor
market data struck a rare optimistic tone in the broader market.
 "On a short-term basis, it appears that both copper and equities
are putting in what appears to be a short-term low as long as this
week's lows are not breached," said Adam Sarhan, chief executive of
Sarhan Capital, a financial services firm based in New York.
 But even with the positive close, recent losses have pulled
copper down 1.7 percent so far this week and around 7 percent year to
date, prompting some additional buying on the view that fundamentals
remain strong for the metal.
 "Demand from China is significant and we expect that to more than
offset the falling demand in western economies," said Ana Armstrong,
chairman of Distinction Asset Management.
 "The sharp decline that we have seen in copper is a good buying
opportunity. Whenever there is a decent sell-off investors should be
ready to enter the market because global growth prospects are still
quite strong."
 London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark copper CMCU3 shot up
$286, or 3.3 percent, to end at $8,881 a tonne -- its largest one-day
rally since Nov. 4, when the contract price surged by 3.35 percent.
 In New York, the key September COMEX contract HGU1 jumped 12.00
cents or by 3 percent to settle at $4.0085 per lb, near the upper end
of its $3.8560 to $4.0360 session range.
 Reuters Commodities Specialist Christopher Henwood said any
slowdown in global economic growth will push copper below key support
levels as low as $3.40. [ID:nRTV248619]
 The rally helped drive COMEX copper volumes up about 40 percent
from the 30-day norm, at 66,500 lots, but well away from last
Friday's record 98,079 lots.
 Copper bulls fed off a strengthening yuan after top metals
consumer China moved to fix its mid-point CNY=SAEC to a record high
of 6.3991 versus the dollar. [ID:nEAP309B00]
 "This suggests to me that Beijing is sufficiently relaxed about
allowing the domestic economy to drive growth and being less
dependent on the export sector," said David Thurtell, an analyst at
Citi. "It shows they are confident that the Chinese economy has
sufficient momentum."
<^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
 Graphic of copper imports:  link.reuters.com/suh23s
 Table for July imports:                    [ID:nEAP307715]
 Graphic on week's winners/losers:
 link.reuters.com/xus92s
 Graphic on LME stocks, prices: r.reuters.com/hub62s
 ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
 U.S. data later in the day added some support to the rally, with
weekly jobless claims falling to a four-month low last week.
[ID:nN1E77A099]
 The data helped cement gains in the base metals and equities,
alike. [.EU][.N]
 "We suspect that equity markets will continue to set the tone for
commodities for the balance of the week. Although the two diverged
yesterday, it is very unusual for the pair to go their separate ways
for long," Edward Meir, analyst at MF Global, said in a note. 
 (Copper/equities graphic: r.reuters.com/veq23s )
 An indication of buying activity is canceled warrants, or
material already tagged for delivery on stocks in LME-approved
warehouses. <0#LME-STOCKS> MCUSTX-TOTAL
 Total LME copper stocks were at 463,150 tonnes and canceled
warrants at 8,300 tonnes. The percentage at 1.8 percent is the lowest
since February 2010.
 (LME warehouse graphic: link.reuters.com/neq23s )
 Zinc CMZN3 rose $86 to $2,186 a tonne, recovering from key
technical support near $2,000.
 "$2,100 has now established itself as a good level of support for
zinc and we'd expect to see further trade interest if the prices dips
down towards that level again," RBC analysts said in a note.
 "Fundamentally, we still don't see any major tightness in the
zinc markets appearing until late next year as mine closures will
begin to constrain supply."
 Metal Prices at 1817 GMT
 Metal            Last      Change  Pct Move   End 2010   Ytd Pct
                                                         move
 COMEX Cu       402.05       13.20     +3.39     444.70     -9.59
 LME Alum      2412.00       16.00     +0.67    2470.00     -2.35
 LME Cu        8881.00      286.00     +3.33    9600.00     -7.49
 LME Lead      2382.00      107.00     +4.70    2550.00     -6.59
 LME Nickel   21550.00      575.00     +2.74   24750.00    -12.93
 LME Tin      23605.00      860.00     +3.78   26900.00    -12.25
 LME Zinc      2186.00       86.00     +4.10    2454.00    -10.92
 SHFE Alu     17635.00       45.00     +0.26   16840.00      4.72
 SHFE Cu*     66710.00     -380.00     -0.57   71850.00     -7.15
 SHFE Zin     16780.00       70.00     +0.42   19475.00    -13.84
** Benchmark month for COMEX copper
* 3rd contract month for SHFE AL, CU and ZN
SHFE ZN began trading on 26/3/07
 (Additional reporting by Harpreet Bhal in London; editing by William
Hardy and Marguerita Choy)


Comments (0)
This discussion is now closed. We welcome comments on our articles for a limited period after their publication.