COMMODITIES-Gold surges to record; dollar's loss is oil's gain
* Gold sets 9th record of Aug, best two weeks since 2008
* Commodities take cues from weak dollar, not weak stocks
* Wheat shoots up, oil next and metals lag (Adds quotes, updates prices)
By Jonathan Leff and Eric Onstad
NEW YORK/LONDON, Aug 19 (Reuters) - Gold surged to a record on Friday to seal its biggest two-week gain since 2008 while oil and copper also rose as a dip in the U.S. dollar offset another mild bout of investor jitters.
Commodity traders shifted their focus from the sliding U.S. stock market, which has largely dictated the direction for prices throughout an exceptionally volatile August, to the dollar, whose inverse correlation with raw material markets had waned in recent weeks as markets vacillated.
But the return of the once-popular dollar/commodity trade may be short-lived as investors refocus on euro zone credit woes and weak U.S. economic data that has caused gold to rise more than 12 percent this month while risk assets slump.
"Investors are really worried. Confidence is at its lowest ebb for some time and the more data disappoints, the more upside lies ahead for gold," analyst Edel Tully at UBS said in a note.
The Reuters-Jefferies CRB .CRB, a global benchmark for commodities, rose 0.9 percent, reversing half the previous day's losses and ending the week up 0.9 percent -- its biggest gain in six weeks. Most markets had already settled before the S&P index .SPX deepened losses to end 1.5 percent lower.
The dollar index .DXY initially fell after Spain said it would temporarily cut the sales tax on new house purchases in a move aimed at stimulating the construction sector. The dollar later hit a record low against the yen on a newspaper report suggesting Japan did not plan to intervene often. [FRX/]
The rebound in industrial commodities and grains helped shore up prices after another deep selloff on Thursday, spurred by data showing factory activity in the U.S. Mid-Atlantic region fell to the lowest level since March 2009, when the world's top economy was in recession.
Investors are now looking for any sign of Federal Reserve action when bankers gather in Jackson Hole, Wyoming, late next week, one year after Chairman Ben Bernanke launched a second phase of quantitative easing to revive the economy.
Whether the Fed really has more viable options now, having already committed last week to keep interest rates at near zero for the next two years, is an open question.
"We think the markets will be disappointed," Capital Economics said in a research note. "Bernanke will probably emphasise that the Fed has the tools to boost the economy if deemed appropriate. But the big difference between now and last year is the higher rate of core inflation."
"That means more policy stimulus will probably be a story for next year, once core inflation has fallen back, not this year," it added. <^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^
Commodity prices since 2008:
link.reuters.com/vam88r
Global agricultural prices since 2008:
link.reuters.com/dab94r ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^^>
GOLD LEADS, OTHERS FOLLOW
After rallying around 3 percent to a record $1,877 an ounce earlier in the session, bullion sharply pared initial gains as Wall Street held up better than European stocks. Rising oil and commodity prices also sapped some safety bids.
After touching its ninth record high of August, spot gold was up 1.2 percent at $1,846.40 an ounce by 3:36 p.m. EDT (1936 GMT). New York gold futures GCv1 rose 1.7 percent to settle at $1,850.10 an ounce, up 30 percent this year.
ICE Brent crude for October delivery LCOc1 rose $1.63 to settle at $108.62 a barrel, eking out a 59 cent weekly gain to snap three straight weeks of losses. U.S. front-month September crude CLc1 slipped 12 cents to settle at $82.26 a barrel, blowing out the Brent/WTI spread to a new record. [O/R]
London Metal Exchange (LME) benchmark copper CMCU3 closed up $51 at $8,825 a tonne, recovering from an earlier slide to $8,700, its lowest level since Aug. 11.
The industrial metals complex was partly supported by supply threats in Latin America.
Workers at Chile's Collahuasi, the world's No. 3 copper mine, have threatened a one-day stoppage on Sept. 2 if the company does not hire back workers fired after a previous disruption. [ID:nN1E77G1NQ]
"Setting aside the weak macro environment, copper's fundamentals remain well-supported. Risks of short-term disputes and potential supply outages remain," ANZ said in a note.
U.S. wheat futures rose 3 percent on Friday, rallying on production worries and a setback in the dollar that also boosted corn and soybeans. Next week's summer crop tour may set the tone for another test of recent highs.
"Today is a relief recovery. It's diminished European debt worry as we close and go into the weekend," said Dan Basse, president of AgResource Co in Chicago.
Prices at 3:33 p.m. EDT (1933 GMT)
LAST/ NET PCT YTD
CLOSE CHG CHG CHG US crude CLc1 82.63 0.25 0.3% -9.6% Brent crude LCOc1 109.01 2.02 1.9% 15.1% Natural gas NGc1 3.940 0.048 1.2% -10.6% US gold GCZ1 1852.20 30.20 1.7% 30.3% Gold XAU= 1845.90 22.05 1.2% 30.0% US Copper HGU1 398.35 1.75 0.4% -10.4% LME Copper CMCU3 8824.85 54.85 0.6% -8.1% Dollar .DXY 73.974 -0.270 -0.4% -6.4% CRB .CRB 329.470 3.050 0.9% -1.0% US corn Cc1 711.00 12.00 1.7% 13.0% US soybeans Sc1 1359.75 7.75 0.6% -2.4% US wheat Wc1 730.75 23.00 3.3% -8.0% US Coffee KCU1 266.15 1.35 0.5% 10.7% US Cocoa CCU1 2998.00 13.00 0.4% -1.2% US Sugar SBV1 30.96 1.84 6.3% -3.6% US silver SIU1 42.432 1.744 4.3% 37.2% US platinum PLV1 1874.90 27.20 1.5% 5.4% US palladium PAU1 748.80 -8.20 -1.1% -6.8% (Additional reporting by Jan Harvey, Harpreet Bhal, Barbara Lewis and Naveen Thukral; editing by James Jukwey and Dale Hudson)
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