IFR Preview-major US economic data for release Aug. 31
WHAT: ADP National Employment, August WHEN: Wednesday 0815 EDT (1215 GMT) FORECASTS Reuters IFR Previous ADP (thousands) +100 +50 +114 IFR COMMENTARY: "If forced to hazard a guess, we would look for the ADP report to show a gain of about 50k private payrolls, based on our estimate for an 80k gain in the BLS report on Friday. But the ADP's performance in estimating the BLS figure has been notoriously erratic.
Still, we expect that the market will be watching ADP carefully, as August was a particularly turbulent month, and uncertainty about the labor market remains high. Thus the market is hungrier than usual for clues to Friday's employment report and, though it's not particularly reliable, ADP will at least provide a hint as to how much hiring was affected by the turmoil." ---------------- WHAT: National Association of Purchasing Management Chicago Purchasing Managers Index, August WHEN: Wednesday 0945 EDT (1345 GMT) FORECASTS Reuters IFR Previous PMI 53.5 56.5 58.8 IFR COMMENTARY: "The Chicago PMI will likely drop from 58.8 to around 56.5 in August, with recovering autos balancing cooling growth elsewhere. The Chicago PMI has significantly outperformed most other manufacturing surveys since about mid-2010, and this month should be no exception despite the decline, with other surveys ranging from weak (the Kansas City Fed's +3 composite) to catastrophic (the Philly Fed's -30.7).
A downward drift should be seen in most of the PMI's component indices, though employment should rebound somewhat from July's sharp 7.2-point dip." ---------------- WHAT: Commerce Department Factory Orders, July WHEN: Wednesday 1000 EDT (1400 GMT) FORECASTS (pct) Reuters IFR Previous Factory orders +1.9 +1.9 -0.8 Factory ex-transport. ---- +0.4 +0.1 IFR COMMENTARY: "Factory orders likely rose approximately a strong 1.9% overall in July, but that masks some underlying weakness, with ex-trans orders up a mere 0.4%. The 4.0% surge in durables orders was surprisingly strong, but civilian aircraft and autos were strong contributors, with ex-trans durables up just 0.7%. While the bounce in autos will likely stick, coming as it does as the industry is recovering from a supply chain shock, the rate of growth will not stay that high for long.
Fuels will probably not be a strong contributor to nondurables, with prices in July up very modestly. We look for nondurables orders to be up just 0.2%. August factory sentiment surveys have been weak so far, with only the Kansas City reading (+3) showing any sort of growth. Still, the real activity readings have been a bit more resilient than the surveys, so with orders growth continuing to trend upward, manufacturing may be able to dodge a significant contraction during the current soft patch."
For more Reuters consensus forecasts for U.S. indicators, double-click on [ECI/US]
-- by Theodore Littleton of IFR Markets, a unit of Thomson Reuters.
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