Conference Board sees 50 percent chance of recession

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The U.S. economy faces a 50 percent chance of recession despite modest gains in a leading index of activity, a private sector research group said on Thursday.

The Conference Board's leading index rose 0.2 percent last month, a smaller rise than analysts had forecast in a Reuters poll, following a 0.3 percent gain in August.

Still, the group's economists warned the soft pace of growth in the index was consistent only with an anemic expansion, insufficient to put a dent in the nation's 9.1 percent jobless rate.

"This sluggish economy is going to be here for a while," said Ataman Ozyildirim, economist at The Conference Board.

(Reporting by Pedro Nicolaci da Costa; Editing by Theodore d'Afflisio)