UPDATE 3-Heineken surprises by selling more beer in Q3

Wed Oct 26, 2011 11:47am EDT

* Q3 consolidate beer volume +2.7 pct vs expected -0.2 pct

* Q3 revenue up 0.6 pct vs expected 2.4 pct decline

* Keeps outlook of 2011 net profit in line with 2010

* Shares hit two-month high, close up 0.8 pct

By Philip Blenkinsop

BRUSSELS, Oct 26 (Reuters) - Heineken NV , the world's third-largest brewer, sold more beer at higher prices in the third quarter than a year earlier helped by stronger African markets and a rebound in Russia to report surprise increases in volumes and revenue.

Heineken shares rose as much as 4.1 percent to a two-month high of 36.90 euros in early trading, but concerns over cost pressures trimmed gains and they closed up 0.8 percent at 35.75 euros compared to a 0.2 percent rise in the STOXX European food and beverage index .

Analysts said despite higher beer sales, consumers in western Europe - which accounts of nearly 40 percent of group profit - remain under pressure and costs continue to drift up from increased marketing and higher input inflation.

"This is a modest beat," said Trevor Stirling, analyst at Bernstein Securities. "It is partly due to western Europe which was much better later in the quarter and a very, very strong central and eastern Europe... but EBIT is down."

Analysts said that operating profit, or EBIT, declined in the quarter due largely to the poor performance in western Europe, higher spend behind its brands and higher costs.

"The top-line was a positive surprise, but there's no change to the profit guidance. They are facing costs linked to their next savings plan and input costs which will start increasing by more than low single digits," said analyst Gerard Rijk at ING.

Europe's largest brewer, whose Heineken brand is the continent's number one beer, warned in August that lower consumer sentiment in the United States and Europe and poor summer weather in the latter would hit second half performance.

Western Europe, which represented just under half of group revenue last year, was the Dutch company's worst performing region, with beer volumes there falling 1.7 percent. However, sales picked up in the latter part of the quarter as sunshine lit up late August and September.

The brewer also sold 5.8 percent more beer in central and eastern Europe with a strong rebound in Russia and growth in Austria, Hungary and Romania. African volumes were 6 percent higher, led by growth in Nigeria, Rwanda and a joint venture in the Republic of Congo.

Overall, beer volume grew by 2.7 percent, or 2.2 percent on a like-for-like basis. The market had expected a 0.2 percent declined, based on a Reuters poll of eight brokers.

Revenue grew by grew by 0.6 percent, or 3.0 percent on a like-for-like basis, to 4.65 billion euros ($6.47 billion) compared with the 4.51 billion euro average forecast in the Reuters poll.

The Dutch brewer maintained its forecast that 2011 net profit before exceptionals would be broadly in line with last year, and net profit in the third quarter, at 525 million euros, was virtually unchanged from a year earlier.

Heineken bought Scottish & Newcastle with Carlsberg in 2008, chiefly getting the British assets, but expanded into emerging markets with an all-share purchase last year of the brewing assets of Mexico's FEMSA .

The group is the second of the 'big four' brewers to report figures for the period to the end of September.

The second-largest brewer SABMiller , which has a large presence in fast-growing Africa and Latin America, reported weaker than expected volumes due to poor performances in Europe and China and warned margins were 'constrained' by higher commodity costs and increased marketing spending.

World number one Anheuser-Busch InBev and number four Carlsberg both report results on November 9.

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