Status quo seen in Mississippi, Kentucky governor races

Nov 6_(Reuters) - A Republican is expected to win the governor's race in Mississippi on Tuesday and a Democrat in Kentucky, maintaining the status quo in the two states and offering few clues of trends for 2012, analysts said.

Kentucky Democratic incumbent Governor Steve Beshear is the overwhelming favorite to win a second term after his Republican opponent, David Williams, faltered during the campaign.

Mississippi Republican Lieutenant Governor Phil Bryant is widely seen as the likely victor there after he was endorsed by popular outgoing Governor Haley Barbour, who earlier this year decided against running for president.

In the unlikely event that Democratic candidate, Hattiesburg Mayor Johnny DuPree, scores an upset victory on Tuesday he would be the first African-American to win a statewide election in Mississippi in modern times.

"I expect Bryant to win by 54 to 56 percent," said Marvin King, assistant professor of politics at the University of Mississippi. "If he doesn't, I'll be shocked."

Both major parties will have something to tout if the outcome follows the form chart. Democrats can point to Beshear's reelection as evidence that they can win in the South with the right candidate despite President Barack Obama's unpopularity there.

Republicans can point to their dominance in the region, where in addition to Mississippi, Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal won reelection last month with some two-thirds of the vote in an open primary.

Nationwide, Republicans now hold 29 governorships, Democrats 20 and Rhode Island has an Independent governor, according to the National Governors Association.

The latest Louisville Courier-Journal/WHAS11 Bluegrass Poll, published on Wednesday, showed Beshear with 54 percent of the vote and Williams with only 29 percent.

Williams, who has been state Senate president for eleven years, fought a three-way primary including a Tea Party challenger, and some of his attacks on Beshear have failed to connect with voters.

Earlier this week Williams blasted Beshear for participating in a Hindu prayer ceremony last week at a new manufacturing plant in Kentucky. Beshear recruited the company to come to Kentucky after a trip to India and the ceremony was to mark the groundbreaking.

Stephen Voss, political scientist at the University of Kentucky, said that while Kentucky is a socially conservative state, voters will back either party.

"If you give them a moderate Democratic, they're on board," Voss said. "He (Beshear) has also got a reasonably folksy image, he's got a bit of an accent ... his values are not so far from the values of these voters."

A third party candidate in Kentucky, Gatewood Galbraith, could draw some votes as well. He is a familiar face in Kentucky having run five times including three times as a Democrat, once as Reform party and now as an independent. But Voss said his stance for medical marijuana may hurt him.

The contest in Mississippi has lacked fireworks. Both men support a proposed constitutional amendment that would make Mississippi the first state in the country to define a fertilized egg as a legal person, thereby outlawing abortion.

Both candidates have put education at the forefront of their campaigns, with Bryant emphasizing minimizing the high school drop-out rate and DuPree focusing on early childhood education.

Voter turnout is expected to be low in both states, which is typical in off-year elections. The Kentucky Secretary of State's office predicts only 25 to 28 percent of registered voters will cast ballots there.

(Additional reporting by Jacob Batte in Oxford, Mississippi; Writing by Greg McCune; Editing by Jerry Norton)