UPDATE 2-Colombia sees strong growth despite world woes

Thu Nov 17, 2011 5:51pm EST

* Worst case is economy grows 4.5 pct in 2012 -finmin
    * 2011 economic expansion to be around 5.5 percent

    BOGOTA, Nov 17 (Reuters) - Colombian Finance Minister Juan
Carlos Echeverry said on Thursday he expected economic growth
of between 5 percent and 5.5 percent in the fourth quarter
versus 6.7 percent in the third quarter.
    Resource-rich emerging market countries like Colombia have
seen their economies expand briskly in recent years, although
deteriorating U.S. conditions and financial troubles in Europe
are weighing on expectations for their future growth.
    "It's very solid growth. The idea is to stay stable at
these levels," Echeverry told a conference in the Colombian
coastal city of Cartagena.
    Echeverry said that full-year 2011 economic growth should
be around 5.5 percent versus a previous projection by the
ministry of at least 5 percent, while the worst-case scenario
for 2012 would be a growth of 4.5 percent.
    "Next year, we see it between 4.5 and 6 percent, it's
impossible to say right now if it'll be better. I don't know
what's going to come out the door, how ugly or manageable the
situation in Europe is going to be," he said.
    "But with the (U.S.) free trade deal, Latin America and
more or less stable commodity prices, we can survive."
    Colombia, Latin America's No. 5 economy, has been on a
recovery path from the 2007-09 global financial crisis, like
other emerging market countries, while industrialized nations
have struggled to recoup.
    Once seen as a failing state racked by guerrilla and drug
violence, Colombia has begun to turn its image around, becoming
a magnet for foreign direct investment and recouping three
investment grade credit ratings this year.
    Last week, Colombia's central bank revised its economic
growth forecasts for this year and next and warned it could cut
the key lending rate to protect the Andean nation if there were
another global economic shock.
    The monetary authority has kept interest rates steady since
August due to worries over the global economy's health after
raising rates in the previous six meetings to help keep a lid
on prices and prevent the economy from overheating.
    "Every day there's some good news and some bad. We've been
at this for a year more or less, and probably we're going to
continue like this for another year or year and a half. We have
to prepare ourselves for an uncertain world," Echeverry said.
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