BUY OR SELL-Will Heidelberg benefit from Manroland's woes?

Fri Nov 25, 2011 8:06am EST

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* Bears still see too much overcapacity in the market

* Bulls see Heidelberg winning market share from Manroland

By Maria Sheahan and Christoph Steitz

FRANKFURT, Nov 25 (Reuters) - Manroland, the world's third-biggest printing machine maker, filed for insolvency on Friday, a move that could give top rivals Heidelberger Druck and Koenig & Bauer more market share.

Bears see Heidelberg's own troubles being too deep and its business too far from Manroland's for it to benefit. Bulls, however, see Heidelberg achieving better prices and increasing market share.

Before news of the insolvency filing about half the analysts covering the stock had 'sell' ratings, two are buys and the others are 'holds', according to Thomson Reuters Starmine.

SELL

DZ Bank analyst Karsten Oblinger said while an insolvency of Manroland will help the company's rivals, Koenig & Bauer was in a better position to benefit than Heidelberg.

"Koenig & Bauer would benefit most from it as Heidelberg is not active in web-fed printing machines, where Manroland has a significant market share," he said, keeping his "sell" rating on the stock, with a fair value of 1.20 euros ($1.60).

Achim Henke, an analyst at WestLB, said he believed that an insolvency of Manroland would have very little positive impact on others in the sector because there was still too much overcapacity in the market.

"I think that several customers have given up on Manroland over the past years. So far, however, I believe this had very little positive impact on Heidelberger Druck's order intake," he said, reaffirming his "sell" recommendation.

BUY

However, Equinet analyst Holger Schmidt raised his recommendation on Heidelberg shares to "buy" from "sell" on news of Manroland's insolvency filing.

"In the past Manroland has been rather aggressive in terms of pricing ... With one player less in the oligopoly we think price discipline could improve and therefore be helpful for Heidelberg," he said.

He said he saw incremental sales for Heidelberg of 150-200 million euros in the medium term, and earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) of 40 million to 50 million euros in the next full year. ($1 = 0.7506 euros) (Editing by Greg Mahlich)

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