China kicks off yuan trading vs Aussie, Canadian dollar
SHANGHAI |
SHANGHAI (Reuters) - China's yuan started trading against the Australian dollar and Canadian dollar in the country's onshore foreign exchange market on Monday, the latest currency pairs to be introduced as part of Beijing's efforts to promote the use of its currency.
Beijing's wants to expand the use of the yuan for trade and investment, as a way of reducing reliance on the dollar and thereby simplifying the settlement of trade in everything from energy to manufactured goods.
The yuan is not fully convertible under the capital account but China has made efforts to raise the international status of its currency over the past couple of years as it works toward its goal of making Shanghai a global financial center by 2020.
"This is part of official efforts to enrich trading products in the Chinese market," said Liu Dongliang, currency analyst at China Merchants Bank in Shenzhen.
"In addition, both Australia and Canada are China's important trade partners," he said. "In particular, because of its strong links with Australia, China's economic and market movements often have some influence on the Australia dollar."
Australia and Canada are both major producers of the commodities that have powered China's rapid economic growth.
The pricing of the yuan against the two currencies largely reflected the value of the yuan against the U.S. dollar and the dollar's value against the Australian and Canadian dollars, traders said.
It would take time for the yuan, which has been closely linked to the U.S. dollar, to trade more independently, they added.
Trading was thin on Monday morning, but market players expect it to pick up over time along with the gradual expansion of the yuan's use in global markets.
"This morning those banks trading yuan against Australian and Canadian dollars calculated on the basis of the central bank's mid-point and real time movements of the two foreign currencies against the dollar in global markets," said a trader at a European bank in Shanghai.
"The PBOC has so far still been pricing the fixing of other currencies based on the yuan's near peg versus the U.S. dollar."
The yuan opened at 6.1266 against the Canadian dollar, after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan/Canadian dollar's mid-point at 6.1048, and was later trading around 6.1227.
It opened at 6.2769 against the Australian dollar, also slightly weaker compared with the PBOC's fixing of 6.2491, and fetched around 6.2714 later in the session.
MORE TO COME
Trading in these two new currency pairs comes after the China Foreign Exchange Trade System started yuan trading against the rouble and Malaysian ringgit in 2010.
As part of its efforts to broaden the use of its currency, the government has turned Hong Kong into a center for offshore yuan as more and more trade is conducted in the renminbi, the official name of the currency, leading to the creation of bigger and bigger yuan pools outside mainland China.
Traders and analysts said China needed to add direct yuan trading against the Aussie because of increasing deals between China and Australia, in particular, in the mining sector.
Adding the Canadian dollar was a move to acknowledge the importance of one of the Group of Seven economies as well as being part of China's efforts to gradually have trading in all major currencies versus the yuan, they said.
Traders expect the Singapore dollar and Korean won to be among the next currencies to be traded versus the yuan.
The yuan can rise or fall 3 percent versus the Aussie and Canadian dollar from the PBOC's mid-points each day, according to an exchange announcement last Thursday.
The yuan can move only 0.5 percent to the dollar in either direction from the fixing in a day.
The domestic market now trades a total of nine currencies against the yuan, including the new currency pairs.
(Editing by Alex Richardson)
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The key word here is stability. In order to achieve so astonishing and prolonged growth in GDP and trade in such a large and diversified country, Chinese economy has to be stable and predictable. Rise of China is not welcomed by many stakeholders and main tool to stop China is to destabilize it and goal theoretically can achieved politically or economically. Internal political unrest is very unlikely due to tight control by government which btw has substantial support in society. External political influence is limited due to BRICS alliance and China’s UN Security Council permanent seat. Economic external tools are mainly: a) preventing access to natural resources, b) trade wars c) preventing access to international debt markets and downgrade of debt by Big Three
d) destabilizing currency and depletion of foreign reserves.
Economic internal tools like strikes etc. nearly impossible due to tight political grip.
a – impossible as China has plenty of basic natural resources and 30% to 50%+ of world usage of each and every natural resource bar hydrocarbons so is a good buyer.
And casus belli in all times.
b – limited effectiveness due to gigantic internal market of 1.3 billion consumers: so everybody is envious to access it. You need months of political talks to establish trade war against such a huge partner, while China has time to accommodate and retaliate and while its reliance on foreign trade will gradually fade.
c – Chinese have very high saving rate so China is and will be self sufficient in financing its development. Very limited impact.
d – Yuan full convertibility is needed for attack to be successful. It would have to be huge attack with trillions of US dollars utilized to strengthen Chinese currency and after 2 weeks you have 1 USD = 4 CNY. Then keep it for a month or so and observe huge turmoil in Chinese foreign trade and economy. Chinese have no solution but to print a lot of yuan to defend rate and effectively drown country in inflation or come back to US dollar peg. Loss of credibility of China, loss of clout and soft power. No possibility of yuan to become international currency. If Chinese haven’t come back to the peg you make second move, flee of trillions of US dollars from China abroad. And after 2 weeks you have 1 USD = 8 CNY.
China is devastated, at lest temporarily. Structural problems arise, unemployment, social unrest etc.
That is why China will not allow full convertibility of yuan till: their economy:
is much bigger than US economy, its reliance on foreign trade becomes much smaller (exports


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