UPDATE 2-China Nov copper output falls 4.5 pct on month
* Copper at 448,000 T, lowest in six months
* Aluminium down 2.6 pct on month to 1.377 mln T
* Nickel falls 11 percent from Oct record to 26,925 T (Adds forecasts, lead, zinc and tin)
By Polly Yam
HONG KONG, Dec 9 (Reuters) - China's production of most base metals fell in November due to reduced demand and low domestic prices, with refined copper hitting its lowest level in six months.
The lower industrial metals output was in line with China's overall industrial output growth which hit its slowest pace in more than two years in November as economic conditions deteriorated.
Refined copper production fell 4.5 percent on the month to 448,000 tonnes in November, the lowest level since May 2011, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed on Friday.
However, output rose 9.3 percent from a year earlier because smelters expanded capacity. In the January-November period, output rose 16.3 percent on the year to 4.778 million tonnes.
"Falls in base metals production were not a surprise since prices were low last month," said Fu Bin, analyst at Jinrui Futures, a subsidiary of top copper smelter Jiangxi Copper.
Spot copper prices CU-1-CCNMM in China fell more than 7 percent from end-October to late-November.
He said copper producers in China usually conducted maintenances in the fourth quarter, slowing production.
Supply of raw material scrap was tight in the domestic market, cutting output from producers that used scrap as the main raw material, Fu said.
He added that supply of raw material copper concentrate to China had also fallen after strikes cut production in South America and Indonesia.
Smelters had expected domestic demand to fall in December due to a seasonal slowdown and adjusted their production rates last month, Fu said. He added that refined copper production was expected to decline in December from November.
Refined lead was the only base metal that rose in November as Beijing's crackdown on acid-lead battery manufacturing plants was ending, allowing some battery plants to resume operations, analysts said.
OTHER BASE METALS
Nickel production dived 11 percent from a record 30,248 tonnes in October to 26,925 tonnes in November, the data showed.
"The output fall was mainly because of lower production of nickel pig iron," Fan Runze, analyst at state-backed research firm Antaike, said.
He added that about a half of NPI producers in China had cut or shut production because of low prices and startups had been delayed to next year.
"If prices do not rise, output would not rise in December."
NPI is a low grade ferro-nickel in China made from laterite ore imports. Stocks of ore in Chinese ports rose to around 13 million tonnes from around 10 million tonnes in early November, Fan said.
Domestic demand for NPI and refined nickel had remained weak after small-scale stainless steel mills, top nickel users in China, cut production in the fourth quarter, he said.
November nickel output still surged 63.1 percent from a year earlier as new capacity came on stream this year. In the first 11 months, output rose 44 percent on the year to 252,411 tonnes.
Production of primary aluminium dropped 2.6 percent on the month to 1.377 million tonnes in November, the lowest level since February 2011, and extending a fall after posting a record 1.591 million tonnes in June.
But new capacity boosted November output 13.4 percent from a year ago. Output rose 9.9 percent on the year to 16.015 million tonnes in the first 11 months of 2011.
Aluminium demand from the southern Guangdong province dropped in the past two months as export orders fell and demand from other fabricating bases in the eastern provinces of Zhejiang and Jiangsu was lukewarm mainly because of reduced purchases from the property sector, traders said.
Plants in Guangdong may take a longer Chinese New Year break, which falls on Jan. 23 in 2012, due to reduced orders.
Low aluminium production also cut demand for raw material alumina, with output inching down to 2.639 million tonnes in November after posting a fall of 5.1 percent in the previous month.
Aluminum Corporation of China Ltd , the top alumina producer in the country, reduced its domestic spot alumina prices by 6.7 percent in late November to 2,800 yuan per tonne, the first price cut in more than a year, according to the company website (www.chalco.com.cn).
Refined zinc dropped 1.5 percent on the month to 467,000 tonnes in November but rose 1.7 percent from November 2010.
Tin output dived 19.9 percent on the month and dropped 8.6 percent on the year to 12,793 tonnes in November 2011.
Refined lead production, however, went up 2.9 percent in November to 423,000 tonnes, reversing a fall of 1.4 percent in the previous month. (Editing by Sugita Katyal)
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