Russia trims economic outlook amid global crisis

By Darya Korsunskaya
MOSCOW, Dec 11 (Reuters) - Russia's economic ministry
has warned the risk of a fall in oil prices has increased in the
wake of the euro zone debt crisis, causing it to lower forecasts
for exports as well as the strength of the rouble against the
dollar.
In a report seen by Reuters, the ministry said there is a
growing risk that oil prices could fall to $80 or even
$60 a barrel from $108 now, a decline that would directly affect
growth of the world's biggest energy exporter.
An oil price collapse in late 2008 caused Russia to slide
into recession for the first time in 10 years.
A possible fall would likely arise from the failure of
European countries to agree on a solution to the euro zone
crisis, the ministry report said, while the global impact of
budget reforms in the United States was also a concern.
The report left Russian GDP forecasts unchanged for 2012 at
3.7 percent, down from an expected 4.2 percent this year, but
said that exports of crude products would fall as a result of
lower oil prices and sluggish global economic growth.
Exports for 2012 are now expected to come in at $513.4
billion, down from an earlier forecast for $533.1 billion.
Economists at the ministry lowered their estimates for the
rouble against the dollar in 2011-2014. The average annual
exchange rate was cut from 28.7 to 31.1 roubles per dollar for
2012.
The rouble is closely linked to the price of oil.
A weaker dollar could, however, help Russia lower its budget
deficit, the report said. The falling value of the U.S. currency
would increase oil revenue, which would in turn top up the
budget.
The economic ministry now sees a budget deficit of 0.6
percent of GDP in 2012, against 1.5 percent in a previous
forecast.
The report did not mention last Sunday's disputed election
and subsequent protests as a risk to economic growth, despite
notable market wariness during the week.
Below are the full details of the December forecast:

2011 2012 2013 2014

Oil price, $/barrel 109 100 97 101
(108) (100) (97) (101)

Inflation, % 6,2-6,5 5-6 4,5-5,5 4-5
(6,5-7,0) (5-6) (4,5-5,5) (4-5)

Rouble (annual average), /$ 29,4 31,1 31,3 31,8
(28,6) (28,7) (29,4) (30,5)

GDP, % 4,2-4,5 3,7 3,9 4,4
(4,1) (3,7) (4,0) (4,6)

Industrial production, % 4,7 3,6 3,8 4,1
(4,8) (3,4) (3,9) (4,2)

Investment, % 6,0 7,8 7,1 7,2
(6,0) (7,8) (7,1) (7,2)

Real incomes, % 0,5 4,8 4,8 5,3

(1,5) (5,0) (4,8) (5,3)

Retail trade turnover, % 6,6 5,5 5,3 5,5
(5,3) (5,5) (5,3) (5,5)

Exports, $ billion 523,0 513,4 515,0 543,4
(527,5) (533,1) (535,9) (565,3)

Imports, billion $ 324,0 368,6 412,7 454,0
(340,0) (397,4) (444,6) (486,1)

(Writing By John Bowker)