The dome of the Capitol is reflected in a puddle in Washington February 17, 2012.REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Another debt ceiling debacle could sink the economy

Last year's Congressional debt standoff hurt consumer confidence more than the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Betsey Johnson and Justin Wolfers write. This time could be worse.  Read more at Counterparties  

Recommended Newsletters

Reuters U.S. Top News
A quick-fix on the day's news published with Reuters videos and award-winning news photography and delivered at your choice of one of four times during the day.
Reuters Deals Today
The latest Reuters articles on M&A, IPOs, private equity, hedge funds and regulatory updates delivered to your inbox each day.
Reuters Technology Report
Your daily briefing on the latest tech developments from around the world from Reuters expert tech correspondents.

Fitch again warns U.S. debt burden threatens AAA rating

The Fitch Ratings building is seen in New York May 7, 2010. REUTERS/Jessica Rinaldi

The Fitch Ratings building is seen in New York May 7, 2010.

Credit: Reuters/Jessica Rinaldi

NEW YORK | Wed Dec 21, 2011 5:28pm EST

NEW YORK (Reuters) - Fitch Ratings on Wednesday warned again that the United States' rising debt burden was not consistent with maintaining the country's top AAA credit rating, but said there would likely be no decision on whether to cut the rating before 2013.

Last month, Fitch changed its U.S. credit rating outlook to negative from stable, citing the failure of a special congressional committee to agree on at least $1.2 trillion in deficit-reduction measures.

"Federal debt will rise in the absence of expenditure and tax reforms that would address the challenges of rising health and social security spending as the population ages," Fitch said in a statement.

"The high and rising federal and general government debt burden is not consistent with the U.S. retaining its 'AAA' status despite its other fundamental sovereign credit strengths," the ratings agency said.

In a new fiscal projection, Fitch said at least $3.5 trillion of additional deficit reduction measures will be required to stabilize the federal debt held by the public at around 90 percent of gross domestic product in the latter half of the current decade.

Fitch, when it lowered its outlook to negative, had said it was giving the U.S. government until 2013 to come up with a "credible plan" to tackle its ballooning budget deficit or risk a downgrade from the AAA status.

"A key task of an incoming Congress and administration in 2013 is to formulate a credible plan to reduce the budget deficit and stabilize the federal debt burden. Without such a strategy, the sovereign rating will likely be lowered by the end of 2013," Fitch reiterated.

Rival ratings agency Standard & Poor's cut its credit rating on the United States to AA-plus from AAA on August 5, citing concerns over the government's budget deficit and rising debt burden as well as the political gridlock that nearly led to a default.

On November 23, Moody's Investors Service, warned that its top level Aaa credit rating for the United States could be in jeopardy if lawmakers were to backtrack on $1.2 trillion in automatic deficit cuts that are set to be made over 10 years.

The plan for automatic cuts was triggered after the special congressional committee failed to reach an agreement on deficit reduction. Moody's said any pullback from the agreed automatic cuts to take effect starting in 2013 could prompt it to take action.

(Reporting By Daniel Bases; Editing by Leslie Adler)

We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/
Comments (9)
Fitch is correct to warn the US about its fiscal problems. Dagong, the Chinese ratings agency, lowered the US sovereign debt rating to A with a negative outlook on 8-2-2011. They cited three valid reasons: the US plays too many costly “great power” games in too many countries, can’t raise taxes, and can’t cut spending enough to balance the budget. The credit ceiling debates proved that the US was in stalemate. Three days later, S&P cut US debt to AA+. US banks sit on $2 trillion in cash to pay lawsuits over fraudulent mortgage-backed securities that banks used to cheat investors. Every week a few stories appear about banks paying tens of millions in fines without admitting guilt. US banks also have $500 billion in EU government bonds that EU governments can’t redeem because they invested in the fraudulent mortgage-backed securities of US banks, helping to cause the current EU crisis. It may be nice to know that US banks suffer in their own crimes, but the US banks have $2.5 trillion that they can’t use. In addition, private investors, following the banks, have bought large amounts of EU bonds. Yesterday, Fitch cut the rating ot Italy’s biggest bank and warned of cuts to 7 more Italian, 5 French, and 8 Spanish banks. Last week, Fitch cut France from AAA to AAA with a negative outlook and warned that 6 more EU economies could be downgraded. On 12-16-2011, Moody’s cut Belgium by 2 notches. The week before, Moody’s cut 3 French banks; Fitch cut 3 US and 4 EU banks; and Dagong cut France to A+ with a negative outlook and Italy to BBB. US trade and other financial ties to the EU, the fragile US economy, the US national political stalemate, and the growing austerity of local and state budgets combine to prove that no one can save the US when the EU fails. Both the US and the EU appear headed for a severe recession or depression that could last a decade.

Dec 21, 2011 5:05pm EST  --  Report as abuse
MaryWaterton wrote:
No decision on whether to cut the rating before 2013. Now isn’t that thoughtful of them to wait until after the elections.

Dec 21, 2011 5:30pm EST  --  Report as abuse
alanchristopher, What Dagong didn’t say is most important, “The US outsources too many jobs overseas” to maintain a positive rating. How convenient is that?

Dec 21, 2011 6:18pm EST  --  Report as abuse
This discussion is now closed. We welcome comments on our articles for a limited period after their publication.