Japan sees real GDP +2.2 pct in fiscal 2012/13

Thu Dec 22, 2011 1:17am EST

TOKYO, Dec 22 (Reuters) - Japan's economy will expand
2.2 percent in the fiscal year starting in April, the government
said on Thursday, as housing investment picks up following a
devastating earthquake and as subsides spur consumption and
capital expenditure.	
     The Cabinet Office issues economic forecasts in December
for the following fiscal year, and its figures provide the basis
for the government to compile its annual budget. The government
is expected to decide on its draft budget for fiscal 2012/13 in
the coming days.	
    The government's forecast for real gross domestic product is
stronger than the median estimate for 1.8 percent growth,
according to a Reuters survey. 	
    The government expects market turbulence from Europe's
sovereign debt crisis to subside next year and for exports to
recover as overseas economies pick up, and this may be more
optimistic than some private sector economists, a Cabinet Office
official told reporters.	
    The government is also more optimistic than some economists
on Japan's domestic demand, the official said.	
    The GDP forecast for next fiscal year is lower than the
previous forecast for 2.7 to 2.9 percent growth, but the
government could still face criticism that it issued overly
optimistic figures to help push through a plan to double the 5
percent sales tax.	
    For the current fiscal year ending in March, the government
lowered its real GDP forecast to a 0.1 percent contraction from
the 0.5 percent growth predicted previously to reflect the
impact of a record earthquake and tsunami on March 11 that
triggered the worst nuclear crisis in 25 years.	
    The government also cut this fiscal year's forecasts as a
strong yen and Europe's sovereign debt crisis hurt exports.	
    The following is a table of the government's forecasts:	
---------------------------------------------------------------	
                        FY 2011/12       FY 2012/13	
   
---------------------------------------------------------------	
Real GDP                  -0.1             +2.2	

 Domestic demand          +0.6             +1.8	
 External demand          -0.7             +0.4	
---------------------------------------------------------------	
Exports                   -0.4             +7.6	
Imports                  +13.6             +4.8           	
Overall CPI               -0.2             +0.1	
GDP deflator              -1.8             -0.2	
---------------------------------------------------------------
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