The dome of the Capitol is reflected in a puddle in Washington February 17, 2012.REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Another debt ceiling debacle could sink the economy

Last year's Congressional debt standoff hurt consumer confidence more than the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Betsey Johnson and Justin Wolfers write. This time could be worse.  Read more at Counterparties  

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Index of leading indicators to change

WASHINGTON | Thu Jan 5, 2012 11:50am EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The research group that publishes an index of U.S. leading economic indicators on Thursday said it will replace outdated components of the index with those that more accurately pinpoint economic cycles.

The Conference Board's gauge of 10 indicators that make up the leading index will be adjusted in order to hone in on the latest drivers of the economy, the New York-based research group said. The changes, which will be included in the report beginning on January 26, are the first revisions to the release since 1996 and reflect structural shifts in the make-up of the economy.

"These adjustments have been designed to make the U.S. Leading Economic Index an even stronger predictor of peaks and troughs in the business cycle, while recognizing changes in the functioning and drivers of the economy in the short and medium term," said Bart van Ark, chief economist at The Conference Board.

The former Real Money Supply will be replaced by a new Leading Credit Index component, retroactive to 1990. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) Supplier Delivery Index will be discarded and the ISM New Orders Index will take its place.

The research group will also revise how it weighs consumer sentiment. The Reuters/University of Michigan Consumer Expectations Index will be replaced by consumer expectations that come from surveys conducted by The Conference Board and Reuters/University of Michigan.

(Reporting By Margaret Chadbourn; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

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