The dome of the Capitol is reflected in a puddle in Washington February 17, 2012.REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Another debt ceiling debacle could sink the economy

Last year's Congressional debt standoff hurt consumer confidence more than the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Betsey Johnson and Justin Wolfers write. This time could be worse.  Read more at Counterparties  

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Strong data damps Fed need to buy bonds: Bullard

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis seal is seen at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 8, 2011.  REUTERS/Peter Newcomb

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis seal is seen at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis June 8, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Peter Newcomb

CHICAGO | Sun Jan 8, 2012 5:05pm EST

CHICAGO (Reuters) - Signs the recovery is gaining strength suggest the Federal Reserve may not need to buy any more bonds to spur growth, a top policymaker said on Saturday.

"I don't think it's very likely right now because the tone of the data has been pretty strong" through the end of 2011 and up to now, St. Louis Fed President James Bullard told reporters after a speech at an economics conference. "We can probably wait and see for now."

The Federal Reserve cut benchmark rates to near zero more than three years ago and has bought $2.3 trillion in bonds to boost growth.

While the Fed has left the door open to further accommodation, the U.S. economy has shown signs of accelerating growth in recent months, leaving many to wonder whether the central bank needs to do any more.

Adding to a sense of pickup, the government said on Friday that employers added 200,000 jobs in December and the unemployment rate eased to 8.5 percent, near a three-year low.

Bullard's comments show a Fed still divided over the need for more accommodation to ensure a soft recovery does not dissipate or wilt due to an outside shock such as an intensification of the European debt crisis. Several Fed officials have urged another round of buying mortgage-backed securities to shore up the depressed housing market, including Boston Fed President Eric Rosengren in a speech on Friday.

INFLATION TARGET IN VIEW

Foreshadowing a development expected at the Fed's meeting later this month, Bullard said that the Fed's adopting of an explicit inflation target would reassure markets that the central bank will under no circumstances tolerate high inflation to get the economy back on its feet.

"If you don't name an inflation target, what you're doing is keeping the possibility of very high inflation in your pocket, which you might take out at an appropriate time," he said.

"I think we want to take that possibility off the table," he added.

Having an explicit inflation target would permit the Fed to take further action to stimulate growth, if it needed to, without losing its inflation-fighting credibility, he said.

The St. Louis Fed President, who is not a voter on the Fed this year, said reasonably strong holiday sales and labor market gains point to an improving economy at least for the next six months.

"Now, you do have this risk out there from Europe, but still I think the best forecast for the U.S. is that the momentum will continue into the first half of 2012," he said.

Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin said in a speech in Washington that the Fed must impose monetary penalties on banks over mortgage servicing problems, but did not comment on the outlook for the economy or monetary policy.

(Reporting By Mark Felsenthal; Additional reporting by Dave Clarke in Washington; Editing by Andrea Ricci)

(This story, in the sixth paragrph, corrects to say several Fed officials have urged more bond buying, instead of saying that three Fed officials on Friday called for more bond buying.)

We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/
Comments (10)
Intriped wrote:
Federal Reserve Governor Sarah Bloom Raskin said in a speech in Washington that the Fed must impose monetary penalties on banks over mortgage servicing problems, but did not comment on the outlook for the economy or monetary policy.

Actually the only bonds needed are bail bonds for crooked bankers.

Jan 08, 2012 12:03am EST  --  Report as abuse
AZWarrior wrote:
I suppose that when you can just print money at will, you don’t really have to care much about the quality of the bonds you buy with those dollars. Must be nice.

Jan 08, 2012 12:15am EST  --  Report as abuse
breezinthru wrote:
I think we’ll find that this economic warm and fuzzy feeling is just a flash in the pan. On Friday the 13th of January, Italy intends to conduct a bond sale and I expect that it will not go well and it will require more ECB purchases on the secondary market which may or may not be forthcoming (at some point, the ECB should realize that pouring billions of Euros into Italian bonds does nothing to resolve the overall problem).

The holiday surge is gone. The American dollar will continue to strengthen relative to the Euro and Eurozone economic activity will continue its precipitous decline. Brutal austerity measures in the Eurozone will exacerbate that decline and America will suffer.

The Eurozone banking system and its sovereign nations are supported by an incestuous system of bonds that are declining in value and which could quickly become worthless. That makes the risk of the entire system collapsing very poignant and real. It remains to be seen how well insulated America’s financial system will be.

We must also factor into this volatile mixture an ever increasing likelihood of a confrontation with Iran (beginning in mid-February?) and all of the sub-headlines that will be associated with that.

It’s no wonder why Eurozone naked short sales are now restricted. Enjoy the warm fuzzy feeling while you can. Frosty reality is just around the corner.

Jan 08, 2012 10:38am EST  --  Report as abuse
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