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Another debt ceiling debacle could sink the economy

Last year's Congressional debt standoff hurt consumer confidence more than the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Betsey Johnson and Justin Wolfers write. This time could be worse.  Read more at Counterparties  

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Wall Street banks curb economic growth forecasts

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A street sign stands outside the New York Stock Exchange on August 19, 2011.  REUTERS/Lucas Jackson

A street sign stands outside the New York Stock Exchange on August 19, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Lucas Jackson

WASHINGTON | Tue Jan 10, 2012 2:21pm EST

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Wall Street banks lowered their outlook for U.S. economic growth due to concerns over the European debt crisis, oil prices, regulatory uncertainties and "continued disarray in Washington," according to a financial industry survey released on Tuesday.

The survey, which included bankers from Morgan Stanley, Wells Fargo Securities and Citigroup, forecast that the U.S. economy will grow at a rate of 2.2 percent this year, down from a previous forecast of 3.1 percent.

Several bankers said that U.S. financial markets and the economy were "greatly exposed to the risk of contagion from a systemic event arising from Europe."

The survey was released by the economic advisory roundtable of the Securities Industry and Financial Markets Association.

European debt problems, uncertainty over U.S. fiscal policy and lawmakers' general inability to look at long-term budget trends were most often cited as risks to the economic forecast.

Republican and Democratic lawmakers have repeatedly clashed over how to rein in the United States' massive public debt, with the latest congressional debt reduction panel failing to craft a plan to reduce the U.S. deficit.

Economic growth for 2011 is seen at 1.8 percent, down from a previous forecast of 2.5 percent, the roundtable said, noting that the outlook was considerably weaker than mid-year 2011.

The Wall Street bankers forecast that the policy-setting Federal Open Market Committee would not change its current interest rate target of between 0 to 0.25 percent earlier than mid-2013.

(Reporting By Rachelle Younglai; Editing by Kenneth Barry)

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Comments (1)
I hate to admit this, but I agree with the Wall Street Banks on the US economic prospects for 2012 for the same reasons. The European debt crisis was merely postponed with loans to big banks instead of small businesses that create the most new entrepreneurs, jobs, workers, paychecks, customers, and taxpayers. US demands that Iran get rid of non-existent WMD efforts (No one can disprove a negative.) are keeping oil prices too high for recovery because shipping costs are too high. Who knows what regulators will make and enforce what regulations in 2012 especially with elections and the political stalemate in the US? The US example in 2011 casts serious doubts on the value of democracy for making serious decisions. We shall see how 2012 turns out.

Jan 10, 2012 6:54pm EST  --  Report as abuse
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