The dome of the Capitol is reflected in a puddle in Washington February 17, 2012.REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque

Another debt ceiling debacle could sink the economy

Last year's Congressional debt standoff hurt consumer confidence more than the collapse of Lehman Brothers, Betsey Johnson and Justin Wolfers write. This time could be worse.  Read more at Counterparties  

Interactive

S&P downgrade may spark tougher EU ratings curbs

Related Video

The Standard and Poor's building is seen in New York, August 8, 2011.   REUTERS/Brendan McDermid

The Standard and Poor's building is seen in New York, August 8, 2011.

Credit: Reuters/Brendan McDermid

LONDON | Mon Jan 16, 2012 12:03pm EST

LONDON (Reuters) - Standard & Poor's credit rating downgrades of nine euro zone countries will fuel attempts by European Union lawmakers to slap stricter curbs on sovereign ratings.

The bloc's financial services chief Michel Barnier proposed in November a third set of rules for rating agencies in as many years. But faced with opposition from some of his fellow commissioners, Barnier dropped one proposed element: publication blackouts on ratings downgrades.

Now, with many lawmakers angry about the timing of Friday's downgrades, that proposal could be revisited.

"What I do think that could happen is some members of the parliament that are in favor of banning publication of negative ratings will try to reintroduce that in the proposal," Wolf Klinz, a German Liberal member of the European Parliament said.

"Some of the socialists and conservatives say it's a good thing to have the option to ban the publishing of ratings if they do come at the wrong moment," Klinz told Reuters.

The original blackout proposal was intended to cover only publication of negative ratings of countries receiving bailouts.

But some politicians could now go further and ask for publication to be banned if it comes at an 'awkward' moment for the country concerned. This could cover election campaign periods, or bailout negotiations, although in practice would be very difficult to define and is considered unworkable by many.

Rating agencies were criticized for awarding high ratings to securities based on sub-prime U.S. mortgages which later became untradeable when home owners defaulted on their loans, sparking a global credit crunch whose effects still reverberate.

FRESH PROPOSAL

The European Parliament and EU states have final say on the draft law that is expected to come into force around 2013. A senior lawmaker said on Monday he will table amendments to reinsert a modified version of ratings blackouts.

"Regarding sovereign ratings we have to organize things better and have rules that are more specific and take into account public debt. I will propose an amendment to that effect personally," Jean-Paul Gauzes, a French centre-right member of the EU assembly, told Reuters.

Such an amendment, if approved, would bar publication of sovereign ratings changes while a country is being bailed out.

The socialists and conservatives form the two biggest blocs in the European Parliament and could push through Gauzes' amendment but it is not clear if all the bloc's members would back blackouts.

"I don't think it will get a majority," Klinz said.

Leonardo Domenici, an Italian centre-left member of the European Parliament, is sponsoring the regulation and had already wanted to reopen discussion on blackouts. He was not immediately available for comment on Monday.

S&P also believes attempts to reintroduce a blackout provision would likely fail.

"This idea has been widely rejected and would lead to more not less uncertainty and volatility in markets," S&P said.

Even without blackouts, the EU is going further than the United States or what was agreed globally by the G20 to rein in agencies. The bloc's latest legislation is largely directed at the global market dominance of the "Big Three" ratings agencies: S&P (MHP.N), Moody's (MCO.N) and Fitch Ratings (LBCP.PA).

Barnier said in a speech in Hong Kong on Monday he wanted to see rating agencies operate in full transparency.

"I am surprised time and time again by the timing agencies choose to make such announcements," Barnier said. "I think it would be right for agencies to take better account of the unprecedented efforts being made by government."

The Italian banking association (ABI) said on Saturday that S&P's downgrades, which included Italy, were irresponsible.

"The ABI hopes the European regulation on the rating agencies will be completed and approved as quickly as possible and that the European Central Bank and central banks reconsider immediately the use of external ratings in their procedures and evaluation models," the association said.

World leaders have agreed to "dilute" the reliance banks have on ratings to calculate their capital buffers but this is proving hard in practice because of the difficulty of finding alternatives.

(Reporting by Huw Jones; Editing by Jodie Ginsberg)

Related Quotes and News

Company
Price
Related News
We welcome comments that advance the story through relevant opinion, anecdotes, links and data. If you see a comment that you believe is irrelevant or inappropriate, you can flag it to our editors by using the report abuse links. Views expressed in the comments do not represent those of Reuters. For more information on our comment policy, see http://blogs.reuters.com/fulldisclosure/2010/09/27/toward-a-more-thoughtful-conversation-on-stories/
Comments (5)
hariknaidu wrote:
I’d declare S&P (and other two) persona non existensia.

EU Laws must create their own private rating agencies responsible to the EP for their rating standards – and their license.

Jan 16, 2012 10:21am EST  --  Report as abuse
Oldfinanceguy wrote:
The Euro zone can restrict the rating agencies but that will only make investors more frightened of their true credit standing. The rating agencies did not get these nations or banks in trouble, the governments themselves created the mess. Blaming the rating agencies is a sad attempt to pass the blame to someone else so the current herd of politicians don’t have to face up to their mistakes. They are cowards and gladhanders, not leaders. They don’t have the courage to tell the people they represent the truth and then fix the problem in a rational way. They are frightened they will lose their job if they do what is required but its probably time for them to go home and get a real job.

Jan 16, 2012 11:55am EST  --  Report as abuse
oldmanegan wrote:
If the rating agencies are forced to hide their determinations this will only foster insider trading and volatility. There seems to be a naivete on the part of the EU reps if they think that there will not be a leak of rating agency findings, especially if the agencies must submit to some form of review agency in the EU for approval of publication of results. Someone related to this commission would likely leak the information for political purposes and the rush would be on one way or another.
This seems counter-democratic in that it looks to control information flow as well, and such control at the whim of politicians, not a very “disinterested lot’ that would be egalitarian in their dealings withthe information and their determination if it should be released or not.
What seems to be a more responsible and common sense resolution would be for ratings agencies to institute some form of 30 or 60 day review period for revising a downgrade given events taking place in the near term after a downgrade. It is unfortunate that ratings agencies lag the market events they base their ratings decisions on, but this is the nature of the beast as they are very conservative and thorough and try, outside of their housing debt ratings debacle, to be accurate. This means that they may issue a downgrade concurrently with efforts being made to resolve the factors that triggered the downgrade. Unfortunate, but a fact of life.
Another resolution may be the ratings agencies “pull the trigger” on their determinations faster, which could then make markets more volatile as well. Seems like it is a now in situation.

Jan 16, 2012 1:07pm EST  --  Report as abuse
This discussion is now closed. We welcome comments on our articles for a limited period after their publication.