FOREX-Euro wobbles on Greek setback; subdued in holiday trade

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Sun Jan 22, 2012 6:08pm EST

* Euro under pressure first thing in Asia

* No clear outcome on Greek debt swap deal

* Holidays in Asia make for subdued trade

By Ian Chua

SYDNEY, Jan 23 (Reuters) - The euro started the week in Asia with a negative tone as investors turned wary after Athens and its creditors failed to agree on a debt swap deal that is vital to avert a chaotic default for Greece.

The euro stood at $1.2882, down some 40 pips from $1.2930 late in New York on Friday. It fell as low as $1.2856 in thin early dealings. Trading is expected to be subdued in Asia with many centres including China, Hong Kong and Singapore closed for the Lunar New Year holidays.

"There was no clear outcome on the talks about the restructuring of Greek debt over the weekend and that's probably pressured the euro lower," said Andrew Salter, strategist at ANZ in Sydney.

Traders said a clear break of $1.2870/80 could see major support at $1.2800/10 tested. Last Friday, the single currency hit a 2-1/2 week high around $1.2985, having risen nearly 3 percent from a 17-month trough at $1.2623 plumbed on Jan. 13.

Still, speculators boosted net euro shorts to a fourth straight record in the week ended Jan 17, suggesting the downtrend for the single currency remained intact.

Against the yen, the euro was at 99.11, well down from last week's peak around 100.32. On the Australian dollar, it fetched A$1.2281, not far off a record low around A$1.2220 set on Jan. 17.

Private creditors said on Sunday they had come to the limits of what losses they could concede in a Greek debt swap, putting the ball in the court of the EU and the IMF.

Much of the attention will now turn to a meeting of euro zone finance ministers on Monday, and to whether EU states and the IMF consider that the plan that is being put together by Athens and private bondholders does enough to cut Greece's debt payments.

Renewed euro weakness helped the dollar index climb 0.2 percent to 80.387. Against the yen, the greenback bought 76.95, having retreated from last week's high of 77.31.

Despite the dollar's generally firmer tone, commodity currencies like the Australian dollar held their ground. The Aussie stood at $1.0480, not far off an early 11-week peak of $1.0495.

"The AUD's break above 1.0450 on Friday maintains the positive momentum since the middle of December and suggests an upward bias today with minor resistance at 1.0500," said Besa Deda, chief economist at St. George Bank.

The Aussie's immediate focus is on producer prices due at 0030 GMT, but the key data this week is Wednesday's consumer inflation report. A tame number would cement expectations for an interest rate cut at the central bank's Feb 7 policy meeting.

For the wider market, the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting starting on Tuesday will be the major event. Although no policy change is expected, the Fed could take the historic step of announcing an explicit target for inflation as part of its new communication strategy.

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