FOREX-Dollar extends losses against euro after Fed

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Thu Jan 26, 2012 1:42am EST

* Fed's delayed rate-hike expectations help dollar rivals

* Some euro short positions remain -strategist

* Dollar faces tough resistance around 78.30 yen

* Aussie hits nearly 3-mth high in thin holiday trade

TOKYO, Jan 26 (Reuters) - The dollar gave back some of its gains against the yen and extended losses to hit a fresh five-week low against the euro in Asian trading on Thursday after a more dovish-than-expected outcome to the Federal Reserve's latest meeting pressured it overnight.

Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke said the U.S. central bank might consider further monetary easing through bond purchases. The Fed also pushed back the likely timing of an eventual interest rate hike until late 2014, 18 months later than its previous expectations.

The greenback slipped to 77.63 yen, following its overnight rise to a two-month high of 78.28 yen on the EBS trading platform.

"After the Fed, the dollar will have a harder time continuing this week's gains against the yen. The topside has gotten heavy," said Teppei Ino, currency analyst at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ.

Strong technical resistance was cited around 78.30 yen, with the 200-day moving average now at 78.33 yen. The 61.8 percent retracement of the pair's October-January fall also lies at 78.31 yen, while support is seen at the long term trendline at 77.53 yen.

Japanese life insurers, which normally reduce their holdings of riskier assets and bolster holdings of yen bonds before the end of the business year on March 31, are likely to keep the dollar well off the 80-yen mark at least until then, said a senior spot trader for a major Japanese bank in Tokyo.

The dollar index eased to a five-week low of 79.357 before steadying at 79.392. The euro rose to a five-week peak of $1.3127, and last bought $1.3117.

While the single currency's climb has led many investors to cut back what had been significant short positions, some of these positions remain, leaving it vulnerable to short squeezes even as concerns about Europe's debt situation remain.

"The euro could continue to make short-term gains as the remaining positions are covered, so its downside risks are low for now," said Kimihiko Tomita, head of foreign exchange for State Street Global Markets in Tokyo.

But the euro faces upside challenges from remaining concerns about Europe's ability to come to grips with its debt crisis, with any negative developments seen as giving investors an excuse to sell into the short-squeeze rallies.

TICKING CLOCK

Greece remains in focus, as the top negotiator for private creditors is scheduled to return to Athens later on Thursday to resume talks with officials on a debt swap deal, as the clock ticks ahead of a March deadline when Greece faces major bond redemptions.

The euro changed hands at 101.83 yen, just shy of a fresh one-month high of 101.97 yen hit in early Asian trade, and moving further away from an 11-year low of 97.04 yen marked on Jan. 16.

Japanese exporters have set their euro rate targets at 105 yen, so many traders believe selling pressure will intensify ahead of that level.

"The euro's gains against the yen are mostly a reflection of the influence of the dollar's weakening against the euro, and the yen's weakening against the dollar, rather than any fundamental move," Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ's Ino added.

Both the Australian dollar and its New Zealand counterpart retreated after touching their highest levels since Oct. 31.

With Australian markets closed for a holiday on Thursday, the Aussie bought $1.0626 after rising as far as $1.6039 in thin trading conditions, its highest level since Oct. 31. With a test of the September and October highs in the 1.0750/65 area now possible, the weekly Ichimoku cloud top at $1.0561 could offer an entry point, according to a technical analyst.

Looking further ahead, the actual details of the federal funds rate forecasts by FOMC members are open for interpretation in the months ahead.

The U.S. central bank said a subdued outlook for inflation over the medium run was likely to warrant "exceptionally low" levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014. But the Fed's release also shows the average forecast from the 17 FOMC members for the rate at the end of 2014 is 1.1 percent, while the median is 0.75 percent -- far above the current policy target of zero to 0.25 percent.

"The market reacted without looking into the details, which show many Fed members are not as dovish as the Fed's statement sounds. The Fed says it introduced new announcements to improve communication with markets but this could be seen as misleading," said an economist at a Japanese brokerage.

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Comments (1)
SuccessEuro wrote:
The euro is actually just a matter of management, the euro remains strong even will recover soon

Jan 26, 2012 3:50am EST  --  Report as abuse
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