Nordic power-Market edgy on Sweden nuclear outages

OSLO Jan 31 (Reuters) - Forward Nordic power prices <0#ENOALL:> rose at the front end of the curve on Tuesday due to shutdowns at Sweden's ageing nuclear reactors that were also seen pushing spot prices sharply upward in the days ahead.

The front-month contract, the February 2012, which was due to expire on Tuesday, rose 4.24 percent to 49.15 euros at 1145 GMT, while March 2012 was up 0.95 percent to 42.30 euros.

The contracts were rising due to problems at several nuclear reactors in Sweden, which produce some 40 percent of the country's electricity, according to a Swedish trader.

"Tomorrow we may only have 60 percent of nuclear capacity in activity, when two weeks ago we had 85 percent available," he said. "And this is happening at a time when the weather is cold."

"Everyone is focusing on the spot prices ... We could see peak prices," he said, adding that the spot price for Wednesday could rise to 62 euros from 48.25 euros for Tuesday. He saw Thursday's spot price rising even further, to 73 euros.

Two years ago, Sweden's faltering nuclear reactors helped cause the highest spot prices ever recorded, together with low water levels at the Nordics' hydropower stations.

Further out on the curve, forward contracts were declining on Tuesday on falling prices in Germany, with which the Nordics trade power, and on a declining short-run marginal cost of coal.

The benchmark contract on the pan-Nordic Nasdaq OMX Commodities exchange, the second-quarter 2012, fell 0.53 percent to 37.70 euros.

PRICE DRIVERS

* Spot price expectations: the trader expected the spot price for Wednesday to come out at 62 euros later today, due to the nuclear production problems, with Thursday's seen at 73 euros. Tuesday's was set at 48.25 euros.

* Weather: forecaster Georg Mueller at Point Carbon, a Thomson Reuters company, said the weather would be very cold only until early next week.

"Then (it will be) slowly more unsettled beginning in the north and west with slow normalisation in both temperature and precipitation," he said.

* Hydro balance: the total amount of snow and water available across Norway, Sweden and Finland 15 days from now was seen at 8.2 terawatt hours above normal, according to Point Carbon.

* Oil: a barrel of Brent crude was worth 112.21 dollars at 1136 GMT, up 1.32 percent.

* Carbon: The front-year European Union Allowances permit was up 0.90 percent to 7.84 euros.

* Nuclear: The Forsmark 3 reactor will be taken offline from Wednesday for repairs. The restart of Oskarshamn 3 will be delayed until Wednesday and is unlikely to be back at full capacity then.

Ringhals 2 is expected back online on Thursday, while Ringhals 1 will only come back on Friday.

* Coal: the short-run marginal cost of coal is expected to be 41.6 euros per megawatt hours in the second quarter of 2012, down 0.2 euros compared with yesterday's close, according to Point Carbon. (Reporting by Gwladys Fouche; Editing by Anthony Barker)