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Moody's adjusts ratings of 9 European sovereigns
continues to be well supported by a large, diversified and highly competitive economy, a particularly flexible labour market, and a banking sector that compares favourably to peers in the euro area. The economy generally benefits from the significant structural reforms undertaken in the past. As a result of these strong structural features, Moody's expects the UK to eventually return to its trend growth rate of around 2.5%, although the return to trend growth is expected to be slower than originally expected, reflecting the nature and depth of the financial crisis. The current fiscal consolidation programme remains intact and the government has demonstrated its willingness and ability to take action to address shortfalls. The UK has been proactive in pushing banks to hold more capital and in taking steps to reduce the probability and impact of the sovereign having to use its own balance sheet to support British banks. Further, the outstanding debt stock has important structural features that give the UK government a very high shock-absorption capacity. The government is implementing an ambitious fiscal consolidation programme and so far has been meeting , and even exceeding, its deficit reduction forecasts. In the Autumn Statement, the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) announced weaker economic growth forecasts, to which the government responded by announcing further spending cuts, both over the medium and long term. Although Moody's sees rising challenges in achieving debt reduction within the timeframe that has been laid out by the government - not least the possible impact of any future cutbacks on short-term growth - the rating agency believes that the UK government's response to negative developments late last year indicates its commitment to restoring a sustainable debt position. This suggests that the UK's track record of reversing increases in debt is likely to continue going forward. The UK's Aaa rating is also supported by the robust structure of government debt. The UK has the lowest refinancing risk of all the large Aaa economies, based on the average maturity of the UK's debt stock (nearly 14 years), its large domestic investor base, and the willingness and ability of its central bank to undertake accommodative monetary policy. WHAT COULD MOVE THE RATING DOWN The UK's Aaa rating could potentially be downgraded if Moody's were to conclude that debt metrics are unlikely to stabilise within the next 3-4 years, with the deficit, the overall debt burden and/or debt-financing costs continuing on a rising trend. This could happen in one of three scenarios, all of which would imply lower economic and/or government financial strength: (1) a combination of significantly slower economic growth over a multi-year time horizon - perhaps due to persistent private-sector deleveraging and very weak growth in Europe - and reduced political commitment to fiscal consolidation, including discretionary fiscal loosening or a failure to respond to a deteriorating fiscal outlook; (2) a sharp rise in debt-refinancing costs, possibly associated with an inflation shock or a deterioration in market confidence over a sustained period; or (3) renewed problems in the banking sector that force a resumption of official support programmes and spill over into the real economy, indirectly causing lower growth and larger budget deficits. Conversely, the rating outlook could return to stable if the combination of less adverse macroeconomic conditions, progress towards containing the euro area crisis and deficit reduction measures were to ease medium-term uncertainties with regards to the country's debt trajectory. REGULATORY DISCLOSURES Although the following credit ratings have been issued in a non-EU country which has not been recognized as endorsable at this date, these credit ratings are deemed "EU qualified by extension" and may still be used by financial institutions for regulatory purposes until 30 April 2012. Further information on the EU endorsement status and on the Moody's office that has issued a particular Credit Rating is available on www.moodys.com. Government of Finland Government of Malta Government of Portugal Government of Slovakia Fondo de Reestructuracion Ordenada Bancario Malta Freeport Corporation Limited For ratings issued on a program, series or category/class of debt, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to each rating of a subsequently issued bond or note of the same series or category/class of debt or pursuant to a program for which the ratings are derived exclusively from existing ratings in accordance with Moody's rating practices. For ratings issued on a support provider, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the rating action on the support provider and in relation to each particular rating action for securities that derive their credit ratings from the support provider's credit rating. For provisional ratings, this announcement provides relevant regulatory disclosures in relation to the provisional rating assigned, and in relation to a definitive rating that may be assigned subsequent to the final issuance of the debt, in each case where the transaction structure and terms have not changed prior to the assignment of the definitive rating in a manner that would have affected the rating. For further information please see the ratings tab on the issuer/entity page for the respective issuer on www.moodys.com. The ratings Government of France, Government of Germany, Government of Italy, Government of Luxembourg, Government of Netherlands and Government of United Kingdom were initiated by Moody's and were not requested by these rated entities. All rated entities or their agents participated in the rating process. The rated entities or their agents provided Moody's access to the books, records and other relevant internal documents of the rated entity. The ratings have been disclosed to the rated entities or their designated agent(s) and issued with no amendment resulting from that disclosure. Information sources used to prepare the ratings for Governments of Slovenia, Slovakia, Portugal, Malta and Malta Freeport Corporation Limited are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, and public information. Information sources used to prepare the ratings for Governments of France, Italy, Societe de Financement de L'Economie Francaise and Societe de Prise de Participation de l'Etat are the following: parties involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information. Information sources used to prepare the ratings for Government of United Kingdom and Bank of England are the following: parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Analytics information. Information sources used to prepare the ratings for Government of Spain are the following : parties involved in the ratings, parties not involved in the ratings, public information, and confidential and proprietary Moody's Investors Service information. Information sources used to prepare the ratings for Fondo de Reestructuracion Ordenada Bancario are the following: parties involved in the ratings, and public information. Moody's considers the quality of information available on the rated entities, obligations or credits satisfactory for the purposes of issuing these ratings. Moody's adopts all necessary measures so that the information it uses in assigning the ratings is of sufficient quality and from sources Moody's considers to be reliable including, when appropriate, independent third-party sources. However, Moody's is not an auditor and cannot in every instance independently verify or validate information received in the rating process. Moody's Investors Service may have provided Ancillary or Other Permissible Service(s) to the rated entities or their related third parties within the two years preceding the credit rating action. Please see the special report "Ancillary or other permissible services provided to entities rated by MIS's EU credit rating agencies" on the ratings disclosure page on our website www.moodys.com for further information. The below contact information is provided for information purposes only. Please see the issuer page on www.moodys.com for Moody's regulatory disclosure of the name of the lead analyst and the office that has issued the credit rating. The relevant Releasing Office for each rating is identified in "Debt/deal box" on the Ratings tab in the Debt/Deal List section of each issuer/entity page of the Website. A link from the Releasing Office name is provided to lead to the full address of the respective MIS Releasing Office. (New York Ratings Team)
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