FOREX-Euro relief proves fleeting, China data eyed

Tue Feb 21, 2012 5:50pm EST

Related Topics

* Euro off highs, commodity currencies on the defensive

* Markets take profits on recent gains following Greek bailout deal

* HSBC's flash PMI for China next in focus

By Ian Chua

SYDNEY, Feb 22 (Reuters) - The euro struggled to make any headway in Asia on Wednesday, having retreated from near two-week highs as optimism over the long-awaited Greek bailout deal quickly gave way to concerns about economic growth and implementation risks.

Traders said the Asian session will be directed by HSBC's flash manufacturing activity report on China. Any disappointment could weigh on risk appetite, although it could also bolster expectations of more stimulus from Chinese authorities.

The euro stood at $1.3235, down from Tuesday's high of $1.3293. It is seen capped at $1.3306, the 100-day moving average, and at last week's peak of $1.3321.

While Greece's aid package helped ease fears of an immediate default, the country's economic outlook remained anything but rosy, a problem that could yet derail its efforts to meet tough cost-cutting measures to secure the bailout.

"At the end of the day, considering how perfectly in place the pieces will need to fall for this bailout and said reforms to make the necessary changes to help revitalize the Greek economy, I do not believe that a Greek default is off the table," said Christopher Vecchio, currency analyst at DailyFX.

The dollar index edged off a 1-1/2 week low of 78.797 to 79.094 as the euro floundered. Against the yen, the greenback eased to 79.70, recoiling from a six-month high around 79.90 set on Monday.

The dollar has rallied some 5 percent from lows around 76.00 yen since the start of the month, spurred in part by yen-weakness after the Bank of Japan's surprise easing last week.

"The pace of the yen's move in recent days looks unsustainable. But the yen has the ability to weaken further, although it's not going to do so in a straight line," analysts at Societe Generale wrote in a note.

Among the biggest casualties overnight were commodity currencies as they suffered what traders said was a classic buy-the-rumour-sell-the-fact move following the Greek deal.

The Australian dollar was at $1.0657, more than a full cent lower from Monday's peak of $1.0817. It is testing the bottom of an uptrend channel formed from December and a break below the Feb. 14 trough at $1.0629 was seen paving the way for further losses.

The immediate focus for the Aussie is wage cost data due at 0030 GMT. Analysts generally expect a benign rise of 0.8 percent on the quarter, an outcome that would support the Reserve Bank of Australia's relaxed outlook for inflation.

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