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Japan foresaw possible Fukushima meltdown from day one: documents

1 of 2. Tokyo Electric Power Co (TEPCO)'s President Toshio Nishizawa speaks to reporters after his meeting with Fukushima Prefecture Governor Yuhei Sato at the latter's office in Fukushima, northern Japan March 9, 2012. Nishizawa visited the governor ahead of the one-year anniversary since the Fukushima Daiichi plant was wrecked by a quake and tsunami last March, triggering the world's worst nuclear crisis in a quarter of a century and swamping the firm with huge clean-up, compensation and decommissioning costs.

Credit: Reuters/Yuriko Nakao

TOKYO | Fri Mar 9, 2012 5:07am EST

TOKYO (Reuters) - Japan's government foresaw the possibility of a meltdown at the Fukushima nuclear power plant hours after a huge tsunami smashed into it, according to cabinet minutes released on Friday, although it took officials more than a month to acknowledge it.

The earthquake and tsunami on March 11 knocked out cooling systems at Tokyo Electric Power Co's (Tepco) Fukushima Daiichi plant, triggering the world's worst nuclear accident since Chernobyl in Ukraine in 1986.

"Cooling functions still in service are those run by batteries. They will last eight hours," a summary of the first emergency cabinet meeting, four hours after the quake, quoted an unidentified participant as saying.

"If core temperatures in the reactors remain on the rise for more than eight hours, there is a possibility that meltdown may occur."

A Trade Ministry official who acted as a government spokesman after the disaster struck was replaced after he mentioned the possibility of meltdown on March 12.

It was not until May that Tepco acknowledged that a meltdown of fuel rods appeared to have occurred, sparking criticism that the operator and officials were playing down the severity of the accident.

Tepco now believes that three of the six reactors at the plant, 240 km (150 miles) northeast of Tokyo, suffered fuel meltdown.

The minutes were released two days before the first anniversary of the disaster that left 19,000 dead or missing.

Other entries in minutes of emergency cabinet meetings show confusion and disagreement among top leaders as Japan faced its deepest crisis since World War Two.

"Who is the leader of the actual operation?" Yoshihiro Katayama, internal affairs minister at the time, told a March 15 meeting of the Nuclear Emergency Response headquarters.

"I've got too many unintelligible demands and requests. No one is holding the reins."

On March 14, then-Prime Minister Naoto Kan spoke of a consensus among specialists that a 20-km evacuation zone around the plant was sufficient. He was challenged by Koichiro Gemba, national strategy minister at the time, who pointed out contradicting views.

Gemba, whose constituency is in Fukushima, told a different meeting: "This is war. We only win or lose. We are already losing in some battles. But the important thing is how we manage to limit our loss."

(Reporting by Kiyoshi Takenaka; Editing by; Ron Popeski)

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Comments (3)
HRPufnStuf wrote:
This is ridiculous. Of course they “foresaw the possibility.” I did too. What they did NOT do was report it immediately to the media and PANIC everyone. They did exactly what they should have done.

Prepare for the worst. Report the facts. They did the right thing.

That is patently NOT what the NRC and foreign media did, and we see the result. People in the Tohoku region behaved in an orderly fashion and reacted calmly. People in Tokyo panicked and rushed for airports. The US military scrambled to get their personnel as far away as possible. And why? Panic.

Mar 09, 2012 7:09am EST  --  Report as abuse
HRPufnStuf wrote:
Gemba’s comments are extremely interesting. His gut reaction was to extend the evacuations beyond 20 km, based on speculation. Jackzo of the NRC wanted a 50 km evacuation zone.

What was finally accepted was the 20 km zone, with a 30 km recommendation to stay inside.

The result is revealing. Evacuation was easy. Getting people to return is next to impossible, even in safe areas. You can’t convince people that they will NOT be harmed. They won’t hear it. Therefore, a 50 km zone would have devastated a HUGE region with panic and fear. Gemba was wrong. The NRC was wrong. And if people had listened to them, the situation would be 10 times worse today.

The Japanese government did exactly the right thing.

Mar 09, 2012 7:16am EST  --  Report as abuse
Total course of action taken by the Japanese government during and after the Fukushima disaster shows their lack of capacity to hand the situation like this. I just found this new study, produced independent organization Datapoke, concerning the estimated concentrations of radionuclides at upper altitudes. The report indicates concentrations orders of magnitude higher than those physically recorded at near surface level.

http://www.datapoke.org/blog/8/study-modeling-fukushima-npp-radioactive-contamination-dispersion-utilizing-chino-m-et-al-source-terms/

The report includes dispersion images but I can’t figure out how to post them here. Can anyone post the dispersion images?

http://www.datapoke.org/partmom/a=40

Mar 09, 2012 9:27am EST  --  Report as abuse
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