The Future of the Global Tobacco Industry: 1 Billion Smokers in 2050, Reports Euromonitor

Tue May 15, 2012 10:09am EDT

* Reuters is not responsible for the content in this press release.

  LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM, May 15 (MARKET WIRE) --
With questions surrounding the viability and long-term future of the
tobacco industry, Euromonitor International is releasing a global report
on the projected tobacco industry in 2050. The Future of Tobacco report
examines the long-term prospects for the industry and is based on the
company's ongoing global tobacco research program in over 80 markets
world-wide. The report indicates that despite declining consumption in
developed markets, world cigarette volumes will increase over the next
few decades due to rising consumption in China. Asia Pacific, driven by
China, is predicted to increase its share of the global cigarette market
to over half of volume sales.

    Strict regulation on the tobacco industry along with increasing taxation
continues to put pressure on volume sales of tobacco products in more
developed markets like the US, Western Europe and Japan. Although China
will pay lip service to tobacco control, population growth forecasts
mitigate any fall in smoking prevalence, even in the long term. In fact,
tobacco users will remain at a billion by 2050, according to
Euromonitor's report. 


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Ranking of Major Tobacco Markets by Volume 2010 v 2050       
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                                       2010              2050
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China                                     1                 1
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Russia                                    2                 2
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USA                                       3                 9
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Japan                                     4                24
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Indonesia                                 5                 3
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India                                     6                 6
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Vietnam                                   7                 4
-------------------------------------------------------------
Turkey                                    8                10
-------------------------------------------------------------
South Korea                               9                16
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Italy                                    10                12
-------------------------------------------------------------
Brazil                                   11                15
-------------------------------------------------------------
Germany                                  12                25
-------------------------------------------------------------
Philippines                              13                 7
-------------------------------------------------------------
Egypt                                    14                 5
-------------------------------------------------------------
Ukraine                                  15                11
-------------------------------------------------------------
Spain                                    16                20
-------------------------------------------------------------
Pakistan                                 17                 8
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Poland                                   18                40
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France                                   19                26
-------------------------------------------------------------
United Kingdom                           20                41
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Source: Euromonitor International.                           
Note: Countries highlighted = major riser                    
-------------------------------------------------------------


    Manufacturers are seeking to offset volume declines in developed markets
by a process of premiumisation. "We're seeing manufacturers innovate
their so-called global flagship brands, chiefly their premium
international offerings, in order to maintain profits and stave off
downtrading," says Zora Milenkovic, Euromonitor's Head of Global Tobacco
Research. "Innovation - or 'premiumisation' - is most evident in pack
design, type and size as well as special filters and superslim
cigarettes," she adds. Premiumisation is threatened by the prospect of
plain packaging legislation being adopted in developed markets.

    In overall equivalent volumes, the world tobacco products market is
forecast to contract by about 7% between 2015 and 2050, because of a 9%
fall in cigarette volume sales. Other combustible categories are forecast
to record volume rises, due to the niche appeal of the products, the
perception that they are less dangerous than cigarettes, the price
advantage of some segments of cigars (eco-cigarillo type products), the
growth of cigars in China, and the price advantage of RYO (Roll Your
Own).

    The concept of reduced harm tobacco products is expected to pick up pace
as innovation in non-combustible, cigarette mimicking nicotine delivery
devices are developed by cigarette companies. The e-cigarette and the
(non-e) nicotine aerosol cigarette will lead the nicotine delivery market
over the long-term, according to Euromonitor's report The Future of
Tobacco.

    By 2050, Euromonitor International expects the novel nicotine delivery
device (NNDD) market (including e-cigarettes) to be equal in value size
to the whole other tobacco products (OTP) market. Meanwhile, the global
market research company expects cigarettes to continue to dominate the
world tobacco industry.

    Details of the report as well as a full table of contents can be found
at: www.euromonitor.com/the-future-of-tobacco/report. 

    Tobacco industry reports on markets in 80 countries can be found at:
Tobacco Industry Reports.

    About Euromonitor International 

    Euromonitor International is the world's leading provider for global
business intelligence and strategic market analysis. We have more than 39
years of experience publishing international market reports, business
reference books and online databases on consumer markets. 

    We deliver market research solutions to support strategic planning for
today's increasingly international business environment. Our research
offers in-depth market analysis on consumer goods and services industries
worldwide, as well as economic, demographic and socio-economic data and
insight on countries and consumers. 

    Euromonitor International is headquartered in London, with regional
offices in Chicago, Singapore, Shanghai, Vilnius, Santiago, Dubai, Cape
Town, Tokyo, Sydney and Bangalore, and has a network of over 800 analysts
worldwide. 

Contacts:
Euromonitor International
Louise Nicholas
Communications Manager
+44 207 251 8024 Ex.3103
Louise.Nicholas@euromonitor.com

Copyright 2012, Market Wire, All rights reserved.

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