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TEXT-S&P revises Halliburton outlook to stable

Thu May 17, 2012 2:50pm EDT

Overview	
     -- We view it as unlikely that Halliburton's aggregate losses
related to its role in the Macondo/Gulf of Mexico oil spill disaster of 2010
will approach levels that would significantly hurt the company.	
     -- Although Halliburton is experiencing some margin pressure in its core 	
North American oilfield services business, we expect its financial performance 	
to remain strong.	
     -- We have revised Halliburton's rating outlook to stable from negative 	
and affirmed the ratings on the company.	
     -- The stable outlook reflects our belief that court judgments or 	
litigation settlements related to the Macondo well incident are unlikely to 	
significantly affect the company and that it's unlikely Halliburton would 	
pursue large, debt financed acquisitions.	
	
Rating Action	
On May 17, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its ratings on 	
Halliburton Co., including its 'A' corporate credit rating. We revised the 	
rating outlook to stable from negative.	
	
Rationale	
Halliburton faces significant potential exposure stemming from its role as a 	
contractor on the Deepwater Horizon drilling rig/Macondo well project that led 	
to the disastrous oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico in 2010--highlighting an 	
operating risk in the oilfield services business. The oil spill is the subject 	
of several ongoing government investigations, and Halliburton has also been 	
named in more than 400 civil suits. However, an affiliate of BP Ltd. and 	
certain other defendants in this litigation have in recent months entered into 	
settlement agreements for amounts that were significantly less than Standard & 	
Poor's initially assumed. Also, in January 2012, the court in the 	
multidistrict litigation proceeding held that BP is required to indemnify 	
Halliburton for certain third-party compensatory claims, or actual damages, 	
even if Halliburton were found to be grossly negligent. Moreover, at least to 	
date, the Department of Justice has not named Halliburton as a responsible 	
party in any civil or criminal action. 	
	
These matters continue to cast a shadow over Halliburton and the timing and 	
financial consequences of the ultimate resolution are highly uncertain. In our 	
view, Halliburton's total Macondo-related costs could ultimately significantly 	
exceed the $300 million loss contingency that the company recorded in the 	
first quarter of this year, but we believe that losses are unlikely to 	
approach the $3 billion that we had identified previously as a possible 	
trigger point for a downgrade.	
	
The ratings on Houston-based Halliburton Co. reflect our view of the company's 	
"strong" business risk position within global oilfield services markets, owing 	
to its substantial geographic diversification, and broad and technologically 	
complex product and service offerings. The ratings also reflect our view of 	
the company's "modest" financial risk. The ratings take account of the 	
cyclical nature of the markets in which the company participates. As of March 	
31, 2012, Halliburton had about $5.6 billion in total adjusted debt, including 	
$800 million in Standard & Poor's adjustments for postretirement obligations 	
and operating lease obligations.	
	
Halliburton is one of the three largest global oilfield service firms, in 	
terms of total revenues, competing closely with Schlumberger Ltd. 	
(A+/Stable/A-1) and Baker Hughes Inc. (A/Stable/A-1). The company offers a 	
comprehensive suite of products and services, encompassing pressure-pumping 	
services, integrated software and services, drilling tools and services, 	
logging and perforating technology, drill bits, fluids services, pressure 	
control services, and completion tools and services. The technology component 	
of its business is high, affording significant barriers to entry. Halliburton 	
provides services on both a discrete and integrated basis to customers that 	
include the majority of national, major, and independent oil companies 	
worldwide--with some degree of customer concentration being inevitable, given 	
the structure of the industry. 	
	
The key driver of demand in Halliburton's markets is the capital expenditure 	
of its customers, which in turn is mostly a function of customers' 	
expectations regarding oil and natural gas prices. Thus, Halliburton's 	
profitability was weaker from late 2008 through early 2010 than in prior 	
years--although profitability and cash flow metrics remained satisfactory. 	
Subsequently, its financial performance has rebounded significantly, in line 	
with higher crude oil prices. 	
	
Also, Halliburton has particularly benefited from rapidly growing demand in 	
the North American pressure-pumping market (well stimulation and cementing) 	
where it is the market share leader. This market--which has accounted for a 	
disproportionate share of Halliburton's growth in revenues over the past two 	
years--has been propelled by greatly expanded use of relatively new hydraulic 	
fracturing technology to exploit oil and gas shale deposits that previously 	
were not economical. The outlook for continuing demand growth remains 	
favorable. However, leading players in the hydraulic fracturing 	
business--including Halliburton--have been investing to expand their pressure 	
pumping capacity, raising the specter of overcapacity. 	
	
Given depressed natural gas prices, exploration and production customers are 	
undergoing a rapid shift toward a focus on oil-directed drilling. This is a 	
favorable longer-range development for Halliburton in that oil drilling 	
requires more intensive use of hydraulic fracturing than natural gas drilling. 	
However, the need to relocate equipment is hurting Halliburton's margins over 	
the short term. Cost inflation of certain critical raw materials, as well some 	
intensification of price competition, has also strained Halliburton's margins. 	
We believe this could continue, constraining the pace of Halliburton's 	
earnings compared with the past year. Moreover, hydraulic fracturing is 	
controversial, given allegations of ground water contamination, which 	
ultimately could result in stricter environmental regulations.	
	
Broadly, recovery in Halliburton's international markets has lagged that in 	
North America, although trends have varied widely by country. Halliburton does 	
not bear country risk to the same extent as its integrated customers, given 	
the lesser degree of investment intensity for an oilfield services company 	
compared with a producer. However, the consequences of turmoil across North 	
Africa and the Middle East were nonetheless sufficient to impinge modestly on 	
Halliburton's financial results in 2011 and early 2012.	
	
Even so, Halliburton's overall financial performance has continued to be very 	
strong. Halliburton's revenues increased 38% in 2011 compared with 2010, and 	
by a further 30% in the first quarter of 2012 compared with the same period in 	
2011. Its adjusted EBITDA totaled a robust $6.9 billion during the 12 months 	
ended March 31, 2012 (with a 26.3% EBITDA margin), up from $4.8 billion (24.6% 	
EBITDA margin) during the year-earlier period. We expect profitability and 	
cash flow in 2012 to remain robust, although some contraction in EBITDA 	
margins (perhaps by 300 to 400 basis points--to the low 20% range) could 	
offset the benefit of full-year revenue growth in excess of 10%. Halliburton 	
is benefiting from management's focus on enhancing operating efficiency, 	
including working capital management.	
	
The company's financial risk profile benefits from moderate debt use. Thus, as 	
of March 31, 2012, adjusted debt to debt plus equity was 29%. Funds from 	
operations to total debt was 88% for the 12 months ended March 31, 2012; debt 	
to EBITDA was 0.8x; and EBITDA to interest was 22x--all indicative of a high 	
degree of earnings and cash flow protection for debtholders. Still, despite a 	
fairly low common dividend payout and a continuing hiatus in share 	
repurchases, surplus cash flow generation will likely be modest over the next 	
one to two years, given our expectation of relatively heavy capital 	
expenditures.	
	
Liquidity	
In our view, Halliburton's liquidity is "strong." Key elements of its 	
liquidity profile include:	
     -- Ready liquidity totaled $2.7 billion of cash and $100 million of 	
conservatively invested marketable securities as of March 31, 2012. These 	
amounts are larger than Halliburton typically holds, reflecting management's 	
caution regarding the Macondo matter. About $460 million of the cash was held 	
by foreign subsidiaries and would be subject to tax if repatriated.	
     -- An unsecured $2 billion revolving credit facility will mature in 2016. 	
As of March 31, 2012, the full amount of the revolving credit facility was 	
available. The company uses this facility, in part, to back up commercial 	
paper issuance, which has been minimal in recent years. This facility includes 	
no financial covenants or material adverse-change provisions.	
     -- There are no maturities of long-term debt over the next five years.	
     -- Operating cash flow should cover the budgeted capital expenditures of 	
about $3.5 billion to $4.0 billion in 2012 (in accordance with management's 	
most recent guidance).	
     -- The common stock dividend is relatively modest, consuming about $330 	
million per year at the recent payout rate. Halliburton has suspended share 	
repurchases amid the uncertainties of the Macondo situation, except in 	
conjunction with its employee stock programs.	
     -- Additional bolt-on acquisitions over the next one to two years could 	
necessitate some external funding or drawdown of liquidity reserves, as would 	
also be the case with larger acquisitions or sizeable Macondo-related payouts. 	
     -- Related to its operations, Halliburton has agreements with financial 	
institutions under which approximately $1.8 billion of letters of credit, bank 	
guarantees, or surety bonds were outstanding as of March 31, 2012. Some of the 	
outstanding letters of credit have triggering events that would entitle banks 	
to require cash collateralization. We view material cash draws related to 	
these arrangements as highly unlikely.	
	
	
Outlook	
The outlook is stable. We believe that court judgments or litigation 	
settlements related to the Macondo well incident are unlikely to reach a level 	
that would lead us to lower the rating. Similarly, we consider it unlikely 	
that Halliburton would pursue large, debt financed acquisitions. Although, 	
particularly as uncertainties related to its Macondo exposure are resolved, 	
Halliburton could adopt a less conservative financial posture than previously 	
and resume share repurchases, we expect Halliburton to maintain adjusted funds 	
from operations to total debt well in excess of 60%. We would consider 	
lowering the rating if we came to expect funds from operations to total debt 	
to be less than 50% for a period greater than one year. Particularly given our 	
view that Halliburton's capital spending could well remain aggressive over the 	
next several years, and given the possibility that the company could undertake 	
a large debt-financed acquisition at some point, we believe there is little 	
upgrade potential.	
	
Related Criteria And Research	
     -- Standard & Poor's Lowers Its U.S. Natural Gas Price Assumptions; Oil 	
Price Assumptions Are Unchanged, April 18, 2012	
     -- Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Sept. 28, 2011	
     -- Criteria Methodology: Business Risk/Financial Risk Matrix Expanded, 	
May 27, 2009	
     -- Corporate Ratings Criteria 2008, April 15, 2008	
	
Ratings List	
Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action	
                                        To                 From	
Halliburton Co.	
 Corporate Credit Rating                A/Stable/A-1       A/Negative/A-1	
	
Ratings Affirmed	
	
Halliburton Co.	
 Senior Unsecured                       A                  	
 Commercial Paper                       A-1
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