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TEXT-S&P affirms Enbridge Energy Partners L.P.

Tue May 22, 2012 2:32pm EDT

Overview	
     -- U.S. midstream energy partnership Enbridge Energy Partners L.P. (EEP) 	
and parent Enbridge Inc. have announced expansion projects to its
Lakehead pipeline system totaling about $2.6 billion.	
     -- We are affirming EEP's 'BBB' corporate credit rating and maintaining 	
the stable outlook.	
     -- The stable outlook reflects the steady cash flows from EEP's liquids 	
segment and the assets' strategic importance to North American crude oil 	
supply, and our view that the partnership will fund the expansion in a 	
balanced manner that will result in financial leverage in the low 4x area by 	
2013.	
	
Rating Action	
On May 22, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its 'BBB' 	
corporate credit rating on midstream energy partnership Enbridge Energy 	
Partners L.P. (EEP). The short-term rating of 'A-2' is unchanged and the 	
outlook is stable.	
	
Rationale	
The ratings affirmation reflects our opinion that the announced expansion 	
projects enhance EEP's competitive position, take advantage of production 	
trends in the Bakken and Canadian oil sands, and will provide steady cash 	
flows mainly through cost-of-service tolling arrangements or firm 	
transportation contracts. Financial leverage in 2012 that is high for the 	
rating and some execution risk with the expansion projects partly temper these 	
strengths.	
	
Under our base case forecast, we expect debt to adjusted EBITDA of about 5x in 	
2012, as the partnership funds its large capital program. We assume that 	
financial leverage improves to the low-4x area in 2013 and less than 4x in 	
2014 as incremental cash flows from the projects come on line. We also expect 	
that the partnership will continue to pay down spill-related borrowing with 	
insurance claim proceeds, that its liquids segment will continue to benefit 	
from tariff increases, and that its Anadarko system will realize higher 	
gathering and processing volumes. Higher throughput volumes along the North 	
Dakota and Lakehead systems have helped improve financial measures from weak 	
2010 levels, with funds from operations (FFO) to total adjusted debt of 23% 	
and adjusted debt to EBITDA of 4.1x as of March 31, 2012.	
	
The partnership announced the projects in conjunction with its parent, 	
Enbridge Inc. (ENB; A-/Stable/--). The Eastern Access project will cost about 	
$2.2 billion, consisting mainly of replacing and expanding line 6B, which 	
spilled crude oil in Marshall, Mich. in 2010, and the addition of pump 	
capacity to boost throughput on lines 5 and 62, all of which will bring 	
additional crude to the Chicago/Flanagan-Sarnia corridor, and help feed lines 	
9A and 9B, which ENB is reversing to carry crude to eastern Canada. The 	
Lakehead expansion will cost about $360 million and consist mainly of 	
additional pump capacity to boost throughput on EEP's Alberta Clipper and 	
Southern Access systems. However, the projects will require significant 	
funding requirements and result in additional financial leverage. ENB will 	
provide a 60% equity funding contribution for the Eastern Access projects, and 	
we expect that EEP will fund its $880 million share of Eastern Access and full 	
$360 million share of the Lakehead expansions in a balanced manner. We believe 	
once the projects are completed cash flows will be relatively low risk and 	
will get support from cost-of-service tariffs.	
	
We characterize EEP's business risk profile as "strong", based on the 	
competitive position of its crude pipeline system and the stable cash flow 	
these assets provide. Partially offsetting these credit strengths are:	
     -- Commodity price volatility related to its natural gas gathering and 	
processing segment, 	
     -- The costs related to the Marshall and Romeoville oil spills, 	
     -- A financial risk profile we characterize as "significant"' because of 	
financial measures that are somewhat weak for the rating, and 	
     -- The master limited partnership (MLP) structure, which gives EEP 	
incentive to pay out the vast majority of available cash flow to its 	
unitholders each quarter. 	
	
In addition, we expect the National Transportation Safety Board to release its 	
report on EEP's 2010 oil spill later this year, which could lead to additional 	
fines and penalties for the partnership.	
	
The liquids segment includes 6,500 miles of crude oil gathering and 	
transportation lines and 32 million barrels of crude oil storage and terminal 	
capacity. The segment includes the Lakehead, North Dakota, and Mid-Continent 	
systems. The stable crude transportation business represented about 74% of 	
2011 EBITDA. In addition to the recently announced expansions, EEP has a 	
significant portion of its capital spending planned for the North Dakota 	
system. We expect the Bakken Expansion Program, which the partnership 	
announced in August 2010, will add 145,000 barrels per day (bpd) of capacity, 	
25,000 bpd of which is already available; EEP expects the remaining 120,000 	
bpd to be in service by early 2013. EEP expects the Bakken expansion to cost 	
about $370 million for the U.S. projects and about C$190 million for the 	
Canadian projects. In addition, the $90 million Bakken Access Program, which 	
the partnership announced in October 2011, involves increasing gathering 	
pipeline capacity and building additional storage tanks at multiple locations 	
in western North Dakota. The Bakken Access Program will be in service before 	
the Bakken Expansion Program goes into service. In December 2011, EEP 	
announced a further $145 million investment, which will expand capacity into 	
the Berthold terminal by 80,000 bpd.	
	
The natural gas segment includes the East Texas, Anadarko, and North Texas 	
systems. We expect this segment will contribute about one-quarter of 2012 	
EBITDA. In September 2011, EEP announced a joint venture with Enterprise 	
Products Partners L.P. and Anadarko Petroleum Corp. to build a new natural gas 	
liquids pipeline, the Texas Express Pipeline. EEP will own 35% of that 	
pipeline and the partnership's portion of the estimated cost is $385 million. 	
The pipeline will originate at Skellytown, Texas, and extend about 580 miles 	
to Mont Belvieu, Texas. The pipeline's initial capacity will be about 280,000 	
bpd and customers have subscribed about 232,000 bpd of that capacity under 	
long-term take-or-pay contracts.	
	
Liquidity	
The short-term credit rating on EEP is 'A-2'. We characterize its liquidity as 	
"adequate". We assume uses of funds at about $3.2 billion for the next 12 	
months, including $2.3 billion of capital spending, about $750 million of 	
distributions, and $100 million in debt maturities. Although we project 	
current sources over uses of less than 1.2x, we believe EEP will have access 	
to the capital markets to raise about $1.6 billion in sources to complement 	
existing liquidity of about $2.6 billion, consisting of $277 million of cash 	
on hand as of March 2012, $1.5 billion of availability under its $2 billion 	
revolving credit facility that supports a $1.5 billion commercial paper 	
program, and our expectation of about $850 million in FFO. If EEP has 	
difficulty in accessing capital markets for funding, we believe it could 	
significantly reduce or delay the capital program to maintain adequate 	
liquidity. To the extent that EEP receives insurance proceeds, we expect the 	
partnership will repay borrowings to further improve liquidity.	
	
We expect that EEP will continue to prudently balance the distribution 	
requirements of its unitholders with the need for preserving internal 	
liquidity. The partnership has maintained a 53.25 cent-per-unit distribution, 	
with cash distribution coverage for the 12 months ended March 31, 2012 of 	
about 1.1x and total coverage of about 1.01x, when including EEP's i-shares 	
program (an equity paid-in-kind security that does not require cash payments, 	
owned by Enbridge Energy Management LLC).	
	
Outlook	
The stable outlook on the ratings reflects our view that EEP will have 	
adequate liquidity to fund its capital spending program and that, although its 	
credit measures will deteriorate in 2012, we expect them to improve to the low 	
4x area in 2013 and below 4x in 2014 after cash flow begins from its expansion 	
projects. The outlook also reflects our view of a modestly improved business 	
position if EEP completes the expansions on time and within budget. However, 	
there is little financial cushion in the current rating and we could lower the 	
rating if there are cost overruns or delays in EEP's capital program, or there 	
are significant fines and penalties or exposure to additional litigation for 	
its 2010 oil spill that result in weaker financial measures that are at levels 	
inconsistent with the 'BBB' rating. We could also lower the rating if weak 	
commodity prices result in lower-than-expected volumes in the gathering and 	
processing business, or if the partnership does not finance future funding 	
needs in a balanced manner. Specific triggers that could lead us to consider a 	
ratings downgrade are FFO to total debt below 15% and debt to EBITDA above 	
4.5x for a sustained period. We feel that a ratings upgrade is unlikely at 	
this time, absent a marked change in EEP's financial risk profile.	
	
Related Criteria And Research	
     -- Key Credit Factors: Criteria For Rating The Global Midstream Energy 	
Industry, April 18, 2012	
     -- Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Sept. 28, 2011	
     -- Business Risk/Financial Risk Matrix Expanded, May 27, 2009	
	
Ratings List	
Ratings Affirmed	
	
Enbridge Energy Partners L.P.	
Corporate Credit Rating                 BBB/Stable/A-2     	
 Senior Unsecured                       BBB                	
 Junior Subordinated                    BB+                	
 Commercial Paper                       A-2                	
	
Enbridge Energy L.P.	
Corporate Credit Rating                 BBB/Stable/--      	
 Senior Unsecured                       BBB
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