Sponsored Links

TEXT-S&P revises Scientific Games outlook

Thu May 31, 2012 4:59pm EDT

Overview	
     -- U.S. gaming services provider Scientific Games performed well
in the 	
first quarter and we expect the company will be able to further improve credit 	
measures this year.	
     -- We are affirming all ratings on the company, including our 'BB' 	
corporate credit rating, and revising our rating outlook to stable from 	
negative.	
     -- The stable rating outlook reflects our expectation that credit 	
measures will improve to a level we believe is in line with the current rating 	
before the end of 2012.	
	
Rating Action	
On May 31, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its ratings, 	
including its 'BB' corporate credit rating, on New York City-based gaming 	
services provider Scientific Games Corporation and revised the rating outlook 	
to stable from negative.	
	
Rationale	
The revision of our rating outlook to stable reflects the company's strong 	
operating performance in the first quarter relative to our previously 	
published expectations for the full year 2012 and continued improvement in 	
credit measures. In the three months ended March 31, 2012, Scientific Games' 	
revenue and EBITDA improved 19% and 23%, year over year. Leverage improved 	
0.2x to 5.0x at March 31, 2012, from 5.2x at Dec. 31, 2011. 	
	
Furthermore, the outlook revision reflects our expectation that the company 	
will show continuing improvement in credit measures and that by the end of 	
2012, leverage will improve to below our 5x maximum leverage threshold for 	
Scientific Games' 'BB' corporate credit rating. We expect the company will 	
build in cushion relative to that maximum threshold to provide it with 	
flexibility to pursue additional strategic growth opportunities without 	
meaningfully impairing its financial risk profile.	
	
Our rating factors in the expectation that Scientific Games' revenue will grow 	
in the high-single-digit percentage area in 2012. Our revenue assumptions 	
incorporate an expectation for instant ticket revenue growth in the low- to 	
mid-single-digit percentage area and a mid-single-digit percentage increase in 	
sales revenue (excluding the acquisition of Barcrest). Our performance 	
expectations for the company's lottery business factor in our U.S. economist's 	
forecast for modest consumer spending growth and changes in various lotteries, 	
including the Powerball price increase and the ability to sell some lottery 	
products through the Internet channel. We expect growth in the lottery segment 	
to moderate somewhat from first-quarter sales levels, which were aided by 	
strong jackpot activity. Additionally, we believe economic uncertainty in many 	
European markets could damper international growth. Our forecast also factors 	
in a modest level of incremental revenue associated with the company's 	
acquisition of Barcrest last year.	
	
We expect Scientific Games' EBITDA will increase in the high-single-digit 	
percentage area in 2012. Our EBITDA forecast factors in an expectation for 	
about $50 million in cash distributions from joint ventures in 2012, roughly 	
in line with distributions received in 2011. Under our performance 	
expectations, we believe leverage will improve to the high-4x area in 2012, 	
and that the company will show further leverage improvement in 2013, building 	
in additional cushion relative to the 5x maximum leverage threshold. 	
	
Our 'BB' corporate credit rating on Scientific Games reflects our assessment 	
of the company's financial risk profile as "aggressive" and its business risk 	
profile as "fair," according to our criteria. 	
	
Our assessment of its financial risk profile as aggressive reflects our 	
expectation that our measure of leverage will improve somewhat from current 	
levels and remain below 5x over the intermediate term. It also reflects the 	
company's substantial acquisition activity and investments through joint 	
ventures, its "adequate" liquidity profile, and our expectation for interest 	
coverage to track around 3x over the near term.	
	
Our assessment of Scientific Games' business risk profile as fair reflects 	
competitive market conditions in the lottery industry for contract renewals 	
and for new contracts, which often result in pricing pressure; the mature, 	
capital-intense nature of the online lottery industry; and the company's 	
limited business diversity. Offsetting factors are Scientific Games' 	
leadership position in the instant ticket lottery segment of the gaming 	
industry, a diversified customer base, and substantial recurring revenue and 	
cash flow, given long-term contracts with renewal options that are typically 	
exercised.	
	
Scientific Games is a leading integrated supplier of instant tickets, lottery 	
gaming systems and services, and server-based interactive gaming machines and 	
systems to lottery and gaming organizations worldwide. While the company 	
remains a distant second in the lottery systems segment, behind industry 	
leader Lottomatica SpA, Scientific Games is the leader in the instant ticket 	
segment of the lottery industry, which has grown more rapidly in recent years.	
	
Liquidity	
Based on the company's likely sources and uses of cash over the next 12 to 18 	
months and incorporating our performance expectations, Scientific Games has an 	
adequate liquidity profile. Relevant factors in our assessment of Scientific 	
Games' liquidity profile include the following:	
     -- We expect the company's sources of liquidity over this period to 	
exceed its uses by 1.2x or more.	
     -- We expect that net sources of liquidity would be positive, even if 	
forecasted EBITDA declined 15%.	
     -- We believe that Scientific Games has sufficient covenant headroom, 	
such that a 15% decline in forecasted EBITDA would not result in a breach of 	
financial covenants.  	
     -- We believe Scientific Games has a sound relationship with lenders and 	
a satisfactory standing in credit markets.	
	
Liquidity sources include a $250 million revolving credit facility, a moderate 	
cash balance, and internally generated cash. As of March 31, 2012, the company 	
had approximately $189 million in availability under its revolving credit 	
facility (after accounting for letters of credit outstanding) and a cash 	
balance of $100 million.	
	
In the 12 months ended March 31, 2012, Scientific Games generated about $144 	
million in cash flow from operations and spent about $92 million on capital 	
expenditures. We expect that operating cash flow generation in 2012 will be 	
sufficient to cover our expectations for around $150 million in capital 	
expenditures and that the company will generate a modest amount of free 	
operating cash flow (FOCF) that it could use for debt repayment, modest-sized 	
acquisitions, or possible additional strategic growth opportunities.	
	
The company's credit facility includes several financial maintenance 	
covenants. The total leverage covenant is set at 5.75x through Dec. 31, 2013, 	
5.50x for all of 2014, and 5.25x thereafter. The senior leverage covenant is 	
set at 2.75x, and the interest coverage covenant is at 2.25x. Under our 	
forecast assumptions, the company maintains adequate cushion with respect to 	
these financial maintenance covenants. 	
	
Debt maturities are manageable over the next few years--consisting primarily 	
of amortization payments under the term loan--until the company's term loan 	
and revolver mature in June 2015. 	
	
Scientific Games has a $200 million share repurchase authorization in place 	
through the end of 2012, with roughly $174 million remaining. We have not 	
incorporated any meaningful future share repurchase activity into our rating 	
assumptions, and we do not expect the company to pursue share repurchases 	
until it has built in some level of cushion in credit measures.	
	
Outlook	
Our rating outlook on Scientific Games is stable, reflecting our expectation 	
that credit measures will improve to a level we believe is in line with the 	
current rating before the end of 2012. Furthermore, we expect the company will 	
show continuing leverage improvement over the next two years, and will build 	
in some cushion relative to a 5x maximum leverage threshold to provide it with 	
some flexibility to make additional strategic investments without meaningfully 	
impairing its financial risk profile. For 2012, we have factored into our 	
rating a high-single-digit revenue and EBITDA increase. Under our performance 	
expectations, we expect leverage to be in the high-4x area at the end of 2012 	
and EBITDA coverage of interest around 3x.	
	
We could lower the rating if operating performance is meaningfully worse than 	
our current expectations and the company does not demonstrate organic growth 	
in its existing businesses or if the company embarks on larger-than-expected 	
investments for acquisitions or other strategic growth opportunities, such 	
that we no longer believe the company has the ability to reduce and maintain 	
leverage below 5x over the next two years. Furthermore, we could also lower 	
the rating if the company completes any meaningful share repurchases, as this 	
action would signal a more aggressive financial policy than we have currently 	
contemplated.	
	
A higher rating is unlikely over the next two years, given our expectation 	
that Scientific Games will pursue investment opportunities and that leverage 	
will remain in the mid- to high-4x area on average.	
	
Related Criteria And Research	
     -- Business Risk/Financial Risk Matrix Expanded, May 27, 2009	
     -- 2008 Corporate Criteria: Analytical Methodology, April 15, 2008	
     -- Methodology And Assumptions: Liquidity Descriptors For Global 	
Corporate Issuers, Sept. 28, 2011	
     -- Use Of CreditWatch And Outlooks, Sept. 14, 2009 	
	
Ratings List	
	
Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action	
                                        To                 From	
Scientific Games Corp.	
 Corporate Credit Rating                BB/Stable/--       BB/Negative/--	
	
Ratings Affirmed; Recovery Ratings Unchanged	
	
Scientific Games Corp.	
 Subordinated                           BB-                	
   Recovery Rating                      5                  	
	
Scientific Games International Inc.	
 Senior Secured                         BBB-               	
   Recovery Rating                      1                  	
 Subordinated                           BB-                	
   Recovery Rating                      5
Comments (0)
This discussion is now closed. We welcome comments on our articles for a limited period after their publication.