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TEXT-Fitch cuts LATAM Airlines to 'BB+', upgrades TAM to 'BB'
June 22 - Fitch Ratings has downgraded LATAM Airlines Group S.A.'s (LATAM; formerly known as LAN Airlines S.A. ) foreign currency IDR to 'BB+' from 'BBB'. Fitch has also affirmed LATAM's national equity rating at Level 2 (Primera Clase Nivel 2). In addition Fitch has also upgraded TAM S.A.'s (TAM) foreign and local currency IDRs to 'BB' from 'B+' and its National long-term rating to 'A+(bra)' from 'BBB+(bra)'. The rating actions follow the completion of the LATAM and TAM combination after the closing of the exchange offer for TAM shares occurred today. This has resulted in LATAM acquiring indirectly substantially all of the economic rights and 20% of the voting rights in TAM, now an affiliate company of LATAM. Fitch has also upgraded the following ratings: Tam Linhas Aereas S.A. --Foreign currency to 'BB' from 'B+'; --Local currency IDR to 'BB' from 'B+'. Tam Capital Inc. --Foreign currency IDR to 'BB' from 'B+'; --Local currency IDR to 'BB' from 'B+'; --USD300 million senior unsecured note due 2017 to 'BB' from 'B+/RR4'. Tam Capital Inc. 2 --Foreign currency IDR to 'BB' from 'B+'; --Local currency IDR to 'BB' from 'B+'; --USD300 million senior unsecured note due to 2020 to 'BB' from 'B+/RR4'. Tam Capital Inc. 3: --Foreign currency IDR to 'BB' from 'B+'; --Local currency IDR to 'BB' from 'B+'; --USD500 million senior unsecured note due to 2021 to 'BB' from 'B+/RR4'. Fitch has also assigned the following ratings: Tam Linhas Aereas S.A. --National long-term rating 'A+(bra)' --BRL600 million debentures due 2017 'A+(bra)'.. Fitch has also withdrawn the ratings for TAM S.A's BRL500 million debentures as this security has been fully paid off. The Rating Outlook is Stable for all ratings. LATAM's ratings incorporate its diversified business model, strong regional market position, its credit profile on a standalone basis with high EBITDAR margins above the average in the industry, high gross adjusted leverage, and low liquidity. During the latest twelve months (LTM) March 2012 period, LATAM's EBITDAR and EBITDAR margins were USD1.1 billion and 18.5%, respectively. LATAM's gross adjusted leverage was 4.7x. Also incorporated in the ratings is LATAM's track record of maintaining a relatively stable credit profile through the economic cycle during the last several years as well as the deterioration in its credit metrics during the 24 months period ended in March 2012, this has been driven primarily by the implementation of its strategic fleet plan. TAM's ratings reflect its strong market position, business diversification, volatility in operational results through the economic cycle, and its credit profile on a standalone basis. TAM is the leader in Brazil, which represents approximately 50% of Latin America's total traffic. TAM's market shares in terms of available seat kilometers (ASKs) stand at approximately 41% and 86% of the Brazilian domestic and international segments, respectively. During the LTM March 2012 period TAM's EBITDAR, EBITDAR margin and gross adjusted leverage were USD1.2 billion, 15.6% and 5.7x, respectively. By the end of March 2012, TAM's cash position was adequate at USD1 billion, representing 13.4% of its total LTM revenues. The ratings of LATAM and TAM also incorporate the strong credit linkage between both entities, after the completion of the proposed combination, reflecting the legal, operational and strategic ties existing between the two companies. LATAM's ratings incorporate - on a combined basis - its new competitive position, business diversification, cost structure and expectations on its credit profile and future financial performance through the economic cycle. Post-closing, cross guarantees and cross default clauses related to the aircraft financing for both entities are expected to be in place or start to be actively incorporated during the first year of combined operations. Different jurisdictions are not expected to be an impediment to enforce cross default and guarantee clauses. Dividends and/or intercompany loan restrictions are not anticipated to exist between both entities and substantially all dividend flow generated by TAM is expected to be oriented to LATAM through its non-voting shares in TAM. In addition, TAM's operations are viewed as integral to LATAM's core business. TAM will represent more than 50% of the combined operations in terms of revenues and EBITDAR. Fitch believes that a strong operational tie will exist between both entities. That view is further supported by the expectation that the financial strategy related to the combined capex plan will be primarily oriented to acquire aircraft assets through LATAM. Thus, the entities can take advantage of tax benefits existing in Chile's legislation, and then sub-lease them to TAM. Another positive factor in the ratings is the company business position (after the completion of LATAM and TAM combination) as the largest carrier in Latin America region with annual levels of revenues and transported passengers around USD13.6 billion and 60 million, respectively, by the end of March 2012. The new scale is expected to allow the company to leverage on economy of scale and access to joint hubs, network efficiency, and negotiation power with suppliers and international carriers looking for access to South America to complement its international operations. LATAM and TAM have complementary networks with only 3% overlap which should facilitate the integration process and achieve important synergies during the next few years. The Stable Outlook incorporates the view that LATAM (on a combined basis) will maintain a relatively stable credit profile in the short to medium term. Fitch's base case considers LATAM's combined annual revenues during the 2012-13 period would be approximately USD15 billion, with EBITDAR margins in the 17% to 19% range. The ratings also incorporate the expectation that the company will reduce its combined adjusted gross leverage to levels around 4.5x coupled with adequate liquidity levels (cash plus unused committed credit lines) in the 10% to 15% range over LTM revenues by the end of December 2013. The company's free cash flow (FCF) margin is expected to remain negative in single digits during the 2012-13 period driven primarily by its fleet capex plan. Fitch's FCF calculation considers total cash flow from operations after interest paid less capex and paid dividends. Rating Drivers: A negative rating action could be triggered by a deterioration of the company's credit protection measures due to sizeable negative FCF funded with additional debt. Expectations by Fitch of total adjusted debt to EBITDAR to remain consistently at or beyond 5x coupled with liquidity deterioration by the end of 2013 will likely result in a negative rating action. Conversely, Fitch may take a positive rating action if a combination of the following factors takes place: --Improvement in the company's gross adjusted leverage at or below 3.5x; --Solid liquidity reflected in cash position plus revolving committed facilities consistently around 25% of the company's LTM revenues; - Coverage above 2.0x times the company's debt payments due during the next 24 months; and --Improving FCF generation trending to neutral to positive levels. Synergies Target Realizable: The company is managing the target to reach synergies of the USD600 million to USD700 million over the next four years. Participations at levels of 40%, 40% and 20% are likely to come from passenger revenues, cost, and cargo revenues, respectively. Fitch views the company's expected synergies as attainable. However, Fitch also acknowledges the risk of delay in the integration process due to current slowing macro economy environment affecting the Brazilian economy and the cargo operations. Also a factor is a potential further depreciation of the Real versus the US dollar. This may reduce profitability from the Brazilian operations in USD terms. Additionally, the increasing competition in Brazil's domestic market resulting in operating margin trending negative during the last quarters despite relative healthy traffic. The ratings incorporate Fitch's view that approximately 60% of the company's synergies target could be reached during the 2012-2014 period. One-time combination costs of approximately USD170 million, the bulk of which are expected to be incurred during the first 12 months, should offset synergies during the first year of operations. Business Diversification Offers Operational Flexibility: On a combined basis, LATAM will likely benefit from enhanced revenue diversification reflected in its capacity to adjust its exposure to individual markets. This will likely be accomplished through fleet reassignments as needed to adjust for demand fluctuations. The company's portfolio business diversification includes the international passengers, Brazilian domestic, other regional domestic passengers, cargo, and the loyalty program businesses, which represent approximately 34%, 27%, 11%, 17%, and 6%, respectively, of the company's total revenues. The new company will maintain a unique business position. This is based on broader connectivity in the region resulting from the combination of its strong presence in domestic markets (intra South America routes) and the international passenger segment. The carrier's market position is anticipated to become very attractive not only to its regional customer base, but also to global carriers looking for a regional partner to complement its international routes. Strategic Capex Plan Incorporated: Overcapacity risk will increase during the next years as the company maintains a strategic capex plan that will limit its FCF generation during the next two years ended in December 2013. Counterbalancing this risk is the company's positive track record to properly anticipate demand and focus on profitability instead of market share, as well as LATAM's flexibility to adjust fleet size as a result of the staggered expiration of operating and financial leases and to reassign aircraft to different markets adjusting for demand trends. LATAM's capex related to aircraft equipment during 2012-2014 periods is expected to reach a total net amount around USD7.9 billion. Capex annual levels should come in between USD2.5 billion and USD2.9 million during the period. LATAM has already secured certain long-term financing (12-year tenor on average) from financial institutions. By the end of December 2011, on a combined basis, LATAM's consolidated capacity in the passenger and cargo businesses were 125 billion and 5.1 billion of available seat kilometers (ASKs) and available tone kilometers (ATKs), respectively. The ratings consider the company plans to increase capacity at a growth rate of approximately 7% to 9% per year during the 2012 - 2014 period for the passenger segment. In the cargo segment, the company's capacity is expected to increase significantly during 2013 and 2014. Also, 2012 cargo combined capacity is expected to grow (albeit moderately) as the company has recently revised its 2012 target. High Combined Gross Adjusted Leverage, Expected to Improve by the end of 2013: The ratings incorporate the company's combined high gross leverage and the expectation that its leverage metrics will improve to the end of 2013. On a proforma basis, LATAM's combined gross adjusted leverage, measured by the total adjusted debt to EBITDAR ratio, was 5.2x by the end of March 2012. Fitch expects to see deterioration in the company's gross adjusted leverage during second half-2012 reaching levels in the 5.5x to 6x range. The 2012 capex plan should be supported with incremental debt. The company's combined adjusted gross leverage metrics are expected to improve toward the end of 2013, trending to levels around 4.5x driven primarily by higher cash flow generation, measured as EBITDAR, as expected synergies start to be realized. On a proforma basis, the company reached combined revenues, EBITDAR, and EBITDAR margin of USD13.6 billion, USD2.3 billion, and 16.8% during the LTM March 2012 period. In addition, the company had approximately USD12 billion in adjusted total debt by the end of March 2012. This debt consists primarily of USD9 billion of on-balance-sheet debt, most of which (approximately 70%) is secured, and an estimated USD3 billion of off-balance-sheet debt associated with lease obligations with total combined rentals payments around USD441 million during the period. Liquidity, Low Cash Position Compensated by Alternative Sources of Liquidity: Fitch views the company's combined cash position as low for the rating category and partially compensated by alternative sources of liquidity. On a combined basis, the company maintains a cash position of USD1.3 billion and USD208 million in unused committed credit lines by the end of March 2012. This level of liquidity, cash plus committed unused credit lines, represents 11.2% over the company's LTM revenues and 0.9x of its total short term debt of USD1.7 billion by the end of March 2012. Additionally, the company maintains as an additional source of liquidity the alternative to obtain financing from its aircraft pre-delivery deposit payments (PDP) own funds of approximately USD800 million by the end of March 2012. Fitch does not expect to see the company improve its cash position during the next 18 months (ended in December 2013). The company's FCF generation is anticipated to be limited considering the capex plan being implemented. The company's liquidity, measured by cash plus committed credit lines, is expected to remain in the 10% to 15% during the near to medium term. Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'. The ratings above were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, Fitch has been compensated for the provision of the ratings. Applicable Criteria and Related Research: --'Corporate Rating Methodology' (Aug. 12, 2011); --'Parent Subsidiary Rating Linkage' (Aug. 12, 2011); --'National Ratings - Methodology Update' (Jan. 19, 2011). Applicable Criteria and Related Research: Corporate Rating Methodology Parent and Subsidiary Rating Linkage National Ratings Criteria
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