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TEXT-S&P cuts GeoEye to 'B-' from 'B+'

Tue Jun 26, 2012 4:05pm EDT

Overview
     -- U.S. satellite imagery provider GeoEye received notice that a U.S. 
government agency has elected not to exercise its full-year option for the 
EnhancedView service-level agreement (SLA) due to potential funding shortfalls.
     -- The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency (NGA) is proposing a 
three-month option for the SLA with an additional nine-month option, pending 
availability of funding. We believe there is heightened risk of a significant 
reduction of revenues from the NGA in future periods.
     -- We are lowering the corporate credit rating on the company to 'B-' 
from 'B+' and lowering all issue-level ratings by two notches.
     -- The outlook is developing, indicating that we could lower the ratings 
further if GeoEye loses a substantial portion of future SLA revenues, or raise 
them if the risk of government cutbacks recedes.

Rating Action
On June 26, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its ratings on 
GeoEye Inc., including the corporate credit rating to 'B-' from 'B+'.
The outlook is developing. 

We also lowered all issue-level ratings by two notches. In addition, we 
withdrew the rating on subsidiary ORBIMAGE Inc., as there is no debt 
associated with this entity.

Rationale
The rating actions reflect what we consider heightened risk of a substantial 
reduction of U.S. government revenues beginning in late 2012 or in late 2013, 
which, in our view, would severely reduce the company's profitability and cash 
flow generation. Accordingly, we have revised our business risk assessment to 
"vulnerable" and our financial risk assessment to "highly leveraged."

GeoEye said it received notice from the National Geospatial-Intelligence 
Agency (NGA) that the government agency would not fully renew the EnhancedView 
service-level agreement (SLA) for the contract year Sept. 1, 2012 through Aug. 
31, 2013. Instead, the NGA proposed a new three-month option, which it intends 
to exercise, providing service revenue to GeoEye from Sept. 1, 2012 through 
Nov. 30, 2012 of $39.75 million. The NGA also proposed an additional 
nine-month option for the remainder of the contract year through Aug. 31, 
2013, providing $119.25 million of revenue. However, the agency said the 
second option is based on the availability of U.S. government funding.

In addition, the NGA told GeoEye that it is proposing to change a cost-sharing 
agreement for the development of GeoEye-2, a new satellite scheduled to launch 
in the first half of 2013. Of the $181 million that the NGA previously agreed 
to fund, GeoEye expects that it will receive $111 million within the next 30 
days. The remaining $70 million in funding depends on certain milestones being 
met, with no guarantees that funding beyond the $181 million will be provided. 

While the temporary SLA renewals would represent a modest increase in revenues 
from the NGA for GeoEye, we believe the developments indicate heightened risk 
of a substantial loss of revenue, amid an already uncertain environment for 
government spending. The EnhancedView SLA program accounted for $147 million 
of GeoEye's revenues during 2011 (approximately 41% of total revenue), and 
U.S. government revenues in total represented $228 million (64% of total 
revenue). Therefore, we believe the loss of most of this business would cause 
GeoEye's credit metrics to deteriorate substantially. As of March 31, 2012, 
the company's adjusted leverage was at 3.4x, but this measure will rise 
substantially if the NGA does not renew the SLA due to potential funding 
shortfalls. The high operating leverage inherent in the satellite imagery 
business implies that nearly all lost revenue from a loss of the EnhancedView 
contract would detract from EBITDA, unless GeoEye can win additional business 
from non-U.S. government or commercial customers to use available capacity on 
its satellites.

Liquidity
We consider liquidity "adequate" based on current sources and uses, but this 
assessment could change in the next year depending on the outlook for future 
renewals of the EnhancedView SLA. Sources of liquidity include $181 million in 
unrestricted cash and short-term investments as of March 31, 2012, and funds 
from operations we assume to be around $110 million per year (which includes 
adjustments for capitalized interest), based on the current level of revenues 
from the U.S. government. We expect capital expenditures of approximately $260 
million in 2012 to be partially offset by the $111 million of cost sharing 
from the NGA which GeoEye expects to receive by the end of July 2012. 

Outlook
The developing outlook indicates there is a one-third or greater possibility 
of a downgrade and a one-third or greater possibility of an upgrade over the 
next year, pending further clarity around the NGA's funding decisions for 
GeoEye's services. We could lower the rating if the NGA decided not to 
exercise the additional nine-month option for the next contract year and all 
SLA revenues ceased in December 2012. We could also lower the rating if the 
likelihood of GeoEye losing all or most of its government business became more 
likely.

Conversely, we could raise the rating if the company were to receive greater 
clarity about future funding for the SLA program and once GeoEye-2 became 
fully operational. However, we believe an upgrade would be limited to one 
notch given the likelihood of ongoing funding risks. The ability to diversify 
with other customers would be a positive factor, but given long lead times for 
new business wins, this is likely to be a positive rating factor on its own in 
the next year.

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Ratings List

Downgraded; CreditWatch/Outlook Action
                                        To                 From
GeoEye Inc.
 Corporate Credit Rating                B-/Developing/--   B+/Negative/--

Downgraded; Recovery Ratings Unchanged
                                        To                 From
GeoEye Inc.
 Senior Secured 2nd-lien                CCC                B-
   Recovery Rating                      6                  6
 Senior Secured 9.625% nts              B                  BB-
   Recovery Rating                      2                  2

Ratings Withdrawn

ORBIMAGE Inc.
 Corporate Credit Rating                NR                  B+/Negative/--



Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on 
the Global Credit Portal at www.globalcreditportal.com. All ratings affected 
by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at 
www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left 
column.
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