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TEXT-Fitch revises D.R. Horton outlook to positive

Wed Jun 27, 2012 10:59am EDT

June 27 - Fitch Ratings has affirmed its ratings for D.R. Horton, Inc.
 (NYSE: DHI), including the company's long-term IDR at 'BB'.  Fitch 
has also revised DHI's Rating Outlook to Positive from Stable.  A complete list 
of ratings follows this release.

The ratings for DHI reflect the company's strong liquidity position, the 
successful execution of its business model, geographic and product line 
diversity and steady capital structure. Fitch expects better prospects for the 
housing industry this year. That being the case, there are still challenges 
facing the housing market that are likely to meaningfully moderate the early 
stages of this recovery. Nevertheless, DHI has the financial flexibility to 
navigate through the still challenging market conditions and continue to 
selectively and prudently invest in land opportunities. 

Builder and investor enthusiasm have for the most part surged so far in 2012. 
However, housing metrics have not entirely kept pace. Year-over-year comparisons
have been solidly positive on a consistent basis. However, month-to-month the 
statistics (single-family starts, new home and existing home sales) have been 
erratic and, at times, below expectations. However, these macro numbers in May 
were generally positive: single-family starts (+3.2%), new home sales (+7.6%) 
and existing home sales (-1.5%). 

Home prices have also been more encouraging of late, turning positive for some 
series: FHFA +1.8% March, CoreLogic +2.2% April (excluding distressed +2.6% 
April), Lender Processing Services (LPS) +0.9% March, and Case-Shiller's 20-city
price index (+1.3%) in April. Also, in any case, for the large public 
homebuilders spring has so far been a resounding success. As Fitch noted in the 
past, the housing recovery will likely occur in fits and starts. 

Fitch has raised its housing forecasts for 2012 since the beginning of the year.
However, the forecast still assumes a relatively modest rise off a very low 
bottom. Fitch forecasts single-family housing starts to increase about 12%, with
single-family new home sales to expand approximately 10%.

DHI successfully managed its balance sheet during the housing downturn and 
generated significant operating cash flow. DHI had been aggressively reducing 
its debt over the past few years. Homebuilding debt declined from roughly $5.5 
billion at June 30, 2006 to $1.94 billion currently (including $350 million of 
4.75% senior notes due 2017 issued in April 2012), a 65% reduction.  Pro forma 
debt-capitalization is 41.8%.  Net debt-capitalization is 26.6%. DHI has lowered
its homebuilding debt levels meaningfully in each of the last three fiscal years
(as shown below):

--By $336.3 million in fiscal 2009;
--By $991.3 million in fiscal 2010;and
--By $497.2 million in fiscal 2011. 

This was accomplished through debt repurchases, maturities and early 
redemptions. Through the first six months of fiscal 2012 (ending March 31, 
2012), DHI has repurchased an additional $10.8 million of senior notes. DHI has 
$172 million of senior notes maturing in May 2013. DHI's next major debt 
maturity is in January 2014, when $145 million of senior notes mature.   

DHI currently has solid liquidity with unrestricted homebuilding cash of $662.2 
million and marketable securities of $299.1 million as of March 31, 2012. 

DHI maintains a 6.8-year supply of lots (based on last 12 months deliveries), 
71.3% of which are owned and the balance controlled through options. The options
share of total lots controlled is down sharply over the past five years as the 
company has written off substantial numbers of options.  Fitch expects DHI to 
continue rebuilding its land position and increase its community count.

The primary focus will be optioning (or in some cases, purchasing for cash) 
finished lots, wherein DHI can get a faster return of its capital. DHI's cash 
flow from operations during the LTM period ending March 31, 2012 was a negative 
$46.6 million. For all of fiscal 2012, Fitch expects DHI to be cash flow 
negative. 

The ratings also reflect DHI's relatively heavy speculative building activity 
(at times averaging 50-60% of total inventory and 50% at March 31, 2012). DHIhas
historically built a significant number of its homes on a speculative basis 
(i.e. begun construction before an order was in hand).

A key focus is on selling these homes either before construction is completed or
certainly before a completed spec has aged more than a few months.  This has 
resulted in consistently attractive margins.  DHI successfully executed this 
strategy in the past, including during the severe housing downturn. 
Nevertheless, Fitch is generally more comfortable with the more moderate spec 
targets of 2004 and 2005, wherein spec inventory accounted for roughly 35-40% of
homes under construction. 

Future ratings and Outlooks will be influenced by broad housing market trends as
well as company-specific activity, such as

--Trends in land and development spending;

--General inventory levels;

--Speculative inventory activity (including the impact of high cancellation 
rates on such activity);

--Gross and net new order activity;

--Debt levels;

--Free cash flow trends and uses; and

--DHI's cash position.

Negative rating actions could occur if the recovery in housing does not continue
and DHI prematurely and aggressively steps up its land and development spending.
This could lead to consistent and significant negative quarterly cash flow from 
operations and diminished liquidity position. Conversely, Fitch may consider 
taking positive rating actions if the recovery in housing persists, or 
accelerates and is significantly better than Fitch's current outlook. Fitch may 
consider positive rating action if the housing recovery persists and DHI shows 
continuous improvement in credit metrics while maintaining a healthy liquidity 
position.

Fitch has affirmed the following ratings for DHI and revised the Rating Outlook 
to Positive:

--Long-term IDR at 'BB';
--Senior unsecured debt at 'BB'.
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