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TEXT-Fitch rates NY MTA revs 'A', outlook is stable
June 28 - Fitch Ratings has assigned an 'A' rating to the Metropolitan Transportation Authority, New York's (MTA) $500,000,000 transportation revenue bonds, series 2012E. Fitch also affirms the 'A' rating on approximately $16.1 billion in outstanding MTA transportation revenue bonds. The Rating Outlook is Stable. Bond proceeds will be used to finance transit and commuter projects associated with the MTA's 2010 - 2014 Capital Plan. KEY RATING DRIVERS --Strategic Importance: The MTA transit network is essential to the economy of the New York region, and the MTA and its regional and federal partners have demonstrated the ability to produce solutions aimed at closing projected budget gaps and addressing capital needs. --Highly Constrained Financial Operations: The MTA's financial operations are constrained given its extremely large operating profile and significant retiree pension benefits. The MTA's operating subsidies are vulnerable to economic conditions. There is limited flexibility to offset revenue declines to cover operations of the system despite high debt service coverage ratios. --Strong Security Pledge: The bonds are secured by a gross lien on a diverse stream of pledged revenues. --Extremely Large Capital Needs: The MTA anticipates additional debt to fund the large 2010 - 2014 MTA Capital Programs. The MTA has the constant challenge of delicately balancing the large capital needs of the system while covering operating expenses and maintaining financial flexibility. --Growing Annual Debt Burden: The MTA's capacity to continue to leverage resources to fund expansion projects while meeting renewal and replacement needs may be limited in the future if projected financial performance does not come to fruition. WHAT MAY TRIGGER A RATING ACTION --Inability to achieve operating efficiencies and implement other key elements of the cost reduction initiatives and/or maintain an ongoing state of good repair and other elements of the capital program; --Significant cost overruns or delays in the capital program's mega-projects that would require additional funding; --Additional service cuts or deferral of core capital projects that result in deterioration of key transportation services; --Deterioration or limited growth in dedicated tax subsidies. SECURITY The transportation revenue bonds are primarily secured by a gross lien on the MTA's operating receipts and subsidies, including: transit and commuter rail fares and other operating revenues, surplus toll revenues, and certain dedicated tax sources, state and local operating subsidies, and reimbursements. CREDIT UPDATE The MTA expects to issue its MTA 2013 Preliminary Budget - July Financial Plan 2013 - 2016 in late July. The July Financial Plan includes baseline and below-the-line fare/toll projections, MTA initiatives and policy actions as well as the MTA's consolidated financial forecasts. Also included are the individual agency sections which incorporate descriptions of individual agency programs, supporting baseline estimated forecasts and details regarding proposed Agency Budget Reduction Programs (BRP). Information related to the MTA Capital Program is also included. Following the release of the financial plan Fitch expects to update its analysis of the credit, focusing on actual vs. projected operating revenues, expenses and operating subsidies along with progress on the Capital Plan. For additional information related to the MTA, please see Fitch's press release 'Fitch Rates Metropolitan Transportation Authority (NY) Revs 'A'; Stable Outlook' dated April 10, 2012 and Feb. 28, 2012. Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'. The ratings above were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, Fitch has been compensated for the provision of the ratings. Applicable Criteria and Related Research: --'Rating Criteria for Infrastructure and Project Finance' (Aug. 16, 2011); --'Tax Supported Rating Criteria' (Aug. 11, 2011). Applicable Criteria and Related Research: Rating Criteria for Infrastructure and Project Finance Tax-Supported Rating Criteria
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