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TEXT-Fitch rates Duke Energy Corp and units

Fri Jul 6, 2012 1:19pm EDT

July 6 - Fitch Ratings has assigned initial Issuer Default Ratings (IDR) and
instrument ratings to Duke Energy Corp. (DUK) and its operating
subsidiaries as follows:

DUK
--IDR 'BBB+';
--Senior unsecured debt 'BBB+'. 

Duke Energy Carolinas, LLC (DEC) 
--IDR 'A-';
--Secured debt 'A+'. 

Duke Energy Indiana, Inc. (DEI)
Duke Energy Ohio, Inc. (DEO)
Duke Energy Kentucky, Inc. (DEK)
--IDR 'BBB+';
--Secured debt 'A'. 

The Rating Outlook for all entities is Stable. A detailed list of rating actions
appears at the end of this release.

The existing ratings of recently acquired Progress Energy, Inc. (PGN, 'BBB' IDR)
and its operating subsidiaries Carolina Power & Light Co. (PEC, d/b/a Progress 
Energy Carolinas, Inc.; 'A-' IDR) and Florida Power Corp. (PEF, d/b/a Progress 
Energy Florida; 'BBB+' IDR) are unchanged. 

Key Rating Drivers

PGN merger: The ratings incorporate DUK's increased scale and enhanced financial
flexibility as a result of the merger with PGN. Longer-term, economies of scale 
and the geographic proximity of the service territories should create synergy 
opportunities that strengthen credit quality measures. The recently announced 
resignation of the Chief Executive Officer did not affect the ratings.

Utility Operations: The consolidated ratings are supported by the credit 
strength and cash flow diversity of six regulated utility subsidiaries operating
in six states. Post-merger, utility operations will provide approximately 85% of
consolidated earnings and cash flow. DUK's two largest and financially sound 
utility subsidiaries, DEC and PEC (IDR 'A-' for both companies), will account 
for approximately 55% - 60% of utility earnings. 

Credit Metrics: In 2013, the first full year of operation for the combined 
entity Fitch estimates consolidated EBITDA/interest, FFO/interest and FFO/debt 
of approximately 4.75 times (x), 5.0x, and 20% respectively, which is consistent
with Fitch's target ratios for 'BBB+' issuers and DUK's peer group of utility 
parent companies. Debt/EBITDA, however, will be somewhat weak for the rating 
category with 2013 Debt/EBITDA projected by Fitch to be about 4.25x, trending 
down to about 4.0x over the next two years. 

Construction Expenditures: Consolidated capital expenditures for the merged 
entity trend downward through 2013, as current modernization projects come on 
line through 2012. Expenditures then begin to increase in 2014 reflecting 
environmental expenditures, an expected increase in customer connections 
relative to recent years, potential new generation and discretionary 
expenditures. 

Liquidity: DUK has sufficient liquidity to meet its operational needs and debt 
refinancing requirements, but will require continued capital market access. In 
November 2011, the company entered into a new $6 billion, five-year master 
credit facility; $4 billion became available at closing and the remaining $2 
billion became available following the completion of the PGN merger. 

Rating Concerns

Consolidated Leverage: The acquisition of the more levered PGN increases the 
proportion of debt at the parent level (DUK plus PGN). Pre-merger, Duke had 
approximately 20% of its $23 billion consolidated debt at the parent level, 
compared to about 33% for PGN. Post-merger parent debt (DUK plus PGN) is 
expected to approximate 25% - 27% of total debt.

Achieving synergies: DUK is at risk for system fuel savings included as part of 
the merger settlement agreement with the North and South Carolina  Commission's.
The companies agreed to guarantee $650 million in system fuel savings for 
Carolina retail customers over the next five years (plus an additional 18 months
if coal consumption at certain plants is less than originally forecast due to 
low gas prices). 

Environmental Exposure: Pre-merger, DUK (excluding PGN) derived approximately 
60% of its electric generation from coal-fired facilities and Fitch expects 
environmental spending  to increase  over the five-year period 2012-2016. DEI 
and DEK are authorized to recover environmental spending through tracker 
mechanisms. Both PEC and PEF are relatively well positioned to meet 
environmental compliance regulations and have more modest capital investment 
requirements. 

What would lead to consideration of a negative rating action?

--Adverse regulatory outcomes;

--An increase  in the percentage of  parent level debt.

What would lead to consideration of a positive rating action?

--Not likely at parent or Duke Carolinas;

--Ratings of DEI could improve with continued rate support, while any 
improvement in the DEO ratings would be dependent on more clarity with respect 
to the proposed asset transfer and regulatory environment in Ohio.

Duke Energy Carolinas, LLC

Key Rating Drivers

Credit metrics: Credit metrics are strong and should improve in 2012, due to 
rate increases implemented in North and South Carolina effective January 2012. 
Fitch expects EBITDA/interest and FFO/interest coverage measures to approximate 
5.5x and 6.0x, respectively in 2012 and debt to EBITDA roughly 3.5x. 

Constructive regulatory environment: Fitch considers regulation in North 
Carolina, DEC's primary regulatory jurisdiction, to be constructive. NC state 
regulation permits annual tariff adjustments to recover fuel, demand side 
management, energy efficiency and certain renewable costs. 

Capital expenditures: DEC is nearing the end of a major construction cycle with 
the expected completion in 2012 of two major projects. Both the 825 MW Cliffside
coal-fired unit and the 620 MW Dan River combined cycle gas-fired unit are 
expected to enter commercial operation before year-end. Capex is expected to 
ramp up after 2013 primarily due to environmental spending.

Rate support: Continued rate support is critical for maintenance of existing 
ratings. Duke Carolinas expects to file a rate case in North Carolina in 2012 
with rates to be effective in 2013. The 2012 filing is the last of a three-year 
plan (2009, 2011 and 2013) to recover modernization investments. 

Duke Energy Indiana

Key Rating Drivers

Credit metrics: Credit metrics are strong and should begin to trend upward 
following the expected recovery of additional Edwardsport financing costs later 
this year. Fitch expects EBITDA/interest and FFO/interest coverage measures to 
approximate 5.5x and 5.0x, respectively in 2012. Leverage is moderately high 
with 2012 debt to EBITDA and FFO/debt projected at approximately 4.0x and 17%, 
respectively. 

Regulatory environment: Fitch considers regulation in Indiana to be 
constructive. Favorably Indiana statutes permit recovery of environmental costs.


Settlement Agreement: In April 2012, DEI entered into a settlement agreement 
that largely resolves the regulatory treatment of the company's investment in 
the Edwardsport integrated gasification combined cycle (IGCC) plant. The 
agreement establishes a $2.59 billion cap on costs to be reflected in customer 
rates compared to a final estimated cost of $3.3 billion. The company also 
agreed not to request a retail base rate increase prior to March 2013, with 
rates in effect no earlier than April 1, 2014.

However, due to the settlement, customer rates will increase approximately 9.6% 
above the approximately 5% impact already in rates through a rider mechanism. 
Due to the settlement agreement, DEI wrote-off $420 million, in addition to 
previous write downs of $222 million and $44 million. To restore DEI's balance 
sheet and achieve its authorized regulatory equity ratio of 51%, DUK is 
foregoing dividends from DEI in 2012.

  

Duke Energy Ohio

Key Rating Drivers

Credit metrics: Credit metrics are very strong but will trend downward due to 
the new electric security plan (ESP) implemented Jan. 1, 2012. The ESP 
effectively moved all generation to market based rates effective Jan. 1, 2012. 
The current market price for energy is well below the power prices embedded in 
its previous ESP. 

ESP: The ESP provides for competitive auctions to supply the load obligations of
customers that do not choose an alternative energy supplier. Supply costs are 
recovered from rate payers. The ESP requires DEO to transfer its generating 
assets at net book value to an affiliate by Dec. 31, 2014 and establishes a 
non-bypassable charge of $110 million per year for the three-year period 2012 - 
2014 that will mitigate the impact of losing the above market margins on retail 
supply under the previous ESP. The ESP stipulates that the transferred 
generation cannot receive credit support from Duke Ohio. DUK will provide credit
support, if needed, through an inter-company loan agreement.

Recapitalization: To reflect the higher merchant risk of the generating assets 
and to maintain credit quality, DEO will be recapitalized by refinancing 
approximately $900 million of debt at DUK. The debt transfer will be 
accomplished by refinancing $500 million of maturing debt (Sept. 15, 2012) with 
new parent debt and remarketing $400 million of tax-exempt debt at the parent 
thereby avoiding any make-whole premiums.

Duke Energy Kentucky

Key Rating Drivers

Credit metrics: Credit metrics are strongly positioned in the 'BBB+' rating 
category. In the near term, credit metrics are expected by Fitch to trend 
downward but remain supportive of the current ratings, due to high capex and a 
two year rate freeze agreed to as part of the settlement agreement approving the
merger with PGN. Fitch expects EBITDA/interest and FFO/interest coverage 
measures to approximate 6.0x in 2012 and to trend moderately downward in 2013. 

Regulatory environment: Fitch considers regulation in Kentucky to be 
constructive. Regulatory statutes permit recovery of environmental costs, which 
is particularly important given the company's reliance on coal-fired generation.


Environmental exposure: Relatively large capital expenditures are required to 
comply with environmental regulations. Fitch expects the financial impact to be 
mitigated by the environmental cost recovery clause in Kentucky, but credit 
metrics are expected to trend down from currently very strong levels. 

Fitch has assigned the following ratings with a Stable Outlook: 

Duke Energy Corp.
--Long-term IDR 'BBB+';
--Senior unsecured debt 'BBB+';
--Short-term IDR 'F2';
--Commercial paper 'F2' 

Duke Energy Carolinas, LLC
--Long-term IDR 'A-';
--First mortgage bonds 'A+'; 
--Senior unsecured debt 'A';
--Short-term IDR 'F2'

Duke Energy Indiana, LLC
--Long-term IDR 'BBB+';
--First mortgage bonds 'A'; 
--Senior unsecured debt 'A-';
--Short-term IDR 'F2'

Duke Energy Ohio, LLC
--Long-term IDR 'BBB+';
--First mortgage bonds 'A'; 
--Senior unsecured debt 'A-';
--Short-term IDR 'F2'

Duke Energy Kentucky, LLC
--Long-term IDR 'BBB+';
--First mortgage bonds 'A'; 
--Senior unsecured debt 'A-';
--Short-term IDR 'F2'
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