Odds grow for rain next week, but no "drought-buster"

CHICAGO Tue Jul 17, 2012 1:57pm EDT

A drought affected corn crop is seen near Paris, Missouri July 13, 2012. REUTERS/Adrees Latif

A drought affected corn crop is seen near Paris, Missouri July 13, 2012.

Credit: Reuters/Adrees Latif

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CHICAGO (Reuters) - Hot, dry weather for the next two weeks will continue to stress corn and soybean crops in the western and northern U.S. Midwest, although improving odds for rainfall in the east offered some hope to struggling soybeans, meteorologists said on Tuesday.

"The rains will be too late for corn but it will help soybeans. We see upwards of an inch to 1-1/2 inches (of rain) this week and again next week for Indiana, Ohio and Kentucky," said Don Keeney, meteorologist for MDA EarthSat Weather.

A midday run of the weather forecasting models boosted expectations for rain in the middle of next week, said Jason Nicholls, meteorologist for AccuWeather. The new forecast calls for rains of 0.2 to 0.7 inch around the region, up from earlier outlooks of 0.1 to 0.6 inch.

"The front for Wednesday and Thursday of next week looks slightly wetter, (but) not a drought buster," Nicholls said.

Grain prices pared gains after the new forecasts, with November soybeans turning lower after marking a session record high of over $16 per bushel. Corn prices, which came within a whisker of their nearly $8 all-time peak, was marginally higher.

However, the drought is spreading into the western and northwestern crop belt, leading to further stress and more crop losses.

Keeney said hot, dry weather would remain the norm for the next two weeks in Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Nebraska, Minnesota, the Dakotas and southern Wisconsin.

"Temperatures will get up to 100 (degrees Fahrenheit) today in Chicago and 102 in St. Louis," he said. Cooler temperatures in the 80s and 90s are expected by the weekend, but hotter weather is likely to return next week.

The expanding drought, now considered the worst in over a half century, punished the U.S. corn crop last week.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA), in its weekly crop progress report on Monday, said just 31 percent of the corn crop was in good to excellent shape, down from 40 percent a week earlier and below analysts' average estimate of 35 percent.

Soybean conditions fell to 34 percent from 40 percent in the good to excellent category, below estimates for 35 percent.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) said in a report on Monday that based on the Palmer Drought Index, 55 percent of the contiguous United States was under moderate to extreme drought in June. That is the largest land area in the United States to be affected by a drought since December 1956.

Commodity Weather Group (CWG) on Tuesday said over half of the Midwest would continue with severe moisture deficits and plenty of heat, particularly in the western corn belt.

"Late pollinating and filling corn and pod-setting soybeans will see yields fall further," said CWG meteorologist Joel Widenor.

"Showers may scatter into the south and east Midwest, but relief for the belt as a whole would still be limited."

Chicago Board of Trade corn prices have soared more than 40 percent in only six weeks as crop prospects have plunged.

(Reporting By Sam Nelson; Additional reporting by Mark Weinraub; Editing by Andrew Hay)

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