NORDIC POWER-Spot prices seen falling to 9-month low

* Wind output, lower consumption weigh on system price
* Oil rise over $106 a barrel, but carbon falls sharply

OSLO, July 19 (Reuters) - Nordic spot power prices are
expected to fall to a nine-month low on Thursday due to
increased wind power output and decreasing consumption ahead of
the weekend, analysts said.
Friday's system price, to be published later on Thursday,
was expected to come out at 7.3 euros per MWh, down from 8.2
euros a day earlier, analysts at Point Carbon said.
That would be the lowest system price since October 2011.
"Both wind power output and consumption point in a bearish
direction and no changes in water values are expected," an
analyst at Point Carbon said, adding consumption was down mainly
due to the Friday effect.
Low Nordic prices open up arbitrage opportunities with
Germany, where the day-ahead baseload spot power price settled
at 40.25 euros a MWh for Thursday delivery.
Water reservoir levels for hydropower generation in Norway
and Sweden have been well above long-term median levels, putting
downward pressure on prices as the region generates over half of
its electricity needs from hydropower.

FORWARD PRICES
Further out on the curve, prices firmed between Wednesday
and Thursday in early trading hours, but gains looked temporary,
traders said.
The benchmark quarter-ahead contract for baseload
(24 hours) delivery rose by 45 euro cents to 37.60 euros a MWh
at 0830 GMT.
The contract lost 10 euro cents by 0930 GMT.
"There are some bulls in the market, but, I think it's a
temporary sentiment and prices will continue to fall in line
with weaker economy," a Swedish-based trader said.
A Norwegian-based trader also said he didn't see clear
reasons for the market to be up as weather forecasts were still
not showing stable dry conditions ahead.
The baseload contract for delivery in 2013 firmed by 20 euro
cents to 37.50 euros per MWh at 0830 GMT, but was moving
sideways at 0930 GMT.
The contract was lifted by crude oil rising to a seven-week
high above $106 a barrel on supply concerns, but gains were
offset by EU carbon prices dropping by more than 5
percent later.
"In spite of the current bullish sentiment, we expect both
the quarter-ahead and year-ahead contracts to fall later due to
falling carbon prices," one trader said.
Swedish Ringhals-2 nuclear power reactor failed to restart
after maintenance on Thursday morning.

(Reporting by Nerijus Adomaitis; Editing by Henning Gloystein
and Alison Birrane)