Instant View: Jobless claims climb back up
NEW YORK |
NEW YORK (Reuters) - The number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits rebounded last week, pushing them back to levels consistent with only modest job growth after a seasonal quirk caused a sharp drop the prior period.
PETER BOOCKVAR, EQUITY STRATEGIST, MILLER TABAK & CO, NEW YORK:
"The decision on the part of the Fed (whether) to act in two weeks comes down to their view of the labor market and unfortunately the claims data in July is not giving a seasonally adjusted clean report. What the Fed may do is take out the states of Michigan and those in the South whose claims figures are being influenced by the auto plants in order to get a better measure of the jobs picture. Not that the Fed is going to make a decision on a few weeks of jobless claims but in the context of the current debate, every jobs data point counts all that more."
JIM O'SULLIVAN, CHIEF U.S. ECONOMIST, HIGH FREQUENCY ECONOMICS, VALHALLA, NEW YORK:
"We are surprised that the claims bounced back as quickly as they did. But we didn't believe in the drop last week. It's hard (to forecast) due to seasonal adjustment challenges due to estimates on summer auto plant shutdowns. The numbers should be cleaner next week. It's hard to read too much in these numbers."
AVERY SHENFELD, CHIEF ECONOMIST, CIBC WORLD MARKETS, TORONTO:
"Last week's dive in U.S. jobless claims looks to have been a one-week wonder, as claims rebounded to 386,000 from 352,000 the prior week. Note that the timing and extent of seasonal retooling shutdowns in the auto sector often causes volatility in this series at this time of year. The smoother 4-week average edged only slightly lower to 376,000, while continuing claims were little changed from the prior week. Overall, the results are a disappointment to anyone who thought that last week's dip signaled an improving picture for labor markets, a view we cautioned against at the time. U.S. claims data will be judged only slightly negative for equities today, since the market was already doubting that the labor market was really showing much improvement."
DAVID ADER, HEAD OF GOVERNMENT BOND STRATEGY, CRT CAPITAL GROUP, STAMFORD, CONNECTICUT:
"Higher than expected but with the caveats the Bureau of Labor Statistics is offering in the last few weeks, you're probably supposed to look at that 4-week moving average which at 375,500 is pretty middle of the range for the year."
DAVID CARTER, CHIEF INVESTMENT OFFICER AT LENOX WEALTH ADVISORS IN NEW YORK:
"More than forecast. The labor market is clearly not recovering. We're still working off a stronger-than-expected first half of the year as corporations continue to hoard cash. We don't expect employment to recover strongly anytime soon."
(Americas Economics and Markets Desk; +1-646 223-6300)
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