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TEXT-S&P revises United Technologies outlook to stable

Fri Jul 27, 2012 5:16pm EDT

Overview
     -- United Technologies Corp. has completed its acquisition of Goodrich 
Corp. and announced agreements to sell certain previously identified 
businesses and that it intends to use expected proceeds of more than $3 
billion to reduce debt.
     -- We believe that the divestiture agreements and UTC's re-affirmed 
commitment to debt reduction and curtailed share repurchases support the 
increased likelihood of credit measures returning to levels that will be 
consistent with our expectations for the 'A' rating, despite slowing revenue 
and profit growth arising from the weaker global economic environment. 
     -- We are affirming our 'A' rating on UTC and revising the outlook to 
stable from negative.
     -- The stable outlook also reflects our expectation UTC will improve its 
balance sheet profile and adjusted funds from operations to total debt will 
reach 35%-40% in 2013.

Rating Action
On July 27, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services affirmed its ratings on 
United Technologies Corp. (UTC), including the 'A' corporate credit rating. We 
revised our outlook to stable from negative.

Rationale
The affirmation and outlook revision to stable reflect the reduced likelihood 
of a downgrade following the company's entry into definitive agreements to 
sell its Hamilton Sundstrand industrial product businesses for $3.46 billion 
and its Rocketdyne businesses for $550 million. UTC expects to complete these 
transactions in late 2012 and early 2013, respectively. The company yesterday 
closed its $18.4 billion acquisition of Goodrich Corp. We view UTC's business 
risk profile as "excellent" and its financial profile as "intermediate."

The slowing global economy is curtailing revenue and profit growth (organic 
revenues were up just 1% in the second quarter), and uncertain macroeconomic 
conditions are tempering operating prospects for 2013. However, we believe 
that agreed divestitures, a re-affirmed commitment to debt reduction, 
effective cost control to mitigate the effects of the weaker environment, and 
consistent cash flow generation (of more than $4 billion after dividends) will 
lead to pro forma financial leverage improving below 2.5x by year end and 
toward 2.0x during 2013. We expect funds from operation (FFO) to total debt 
will be 35%-40%. These metrics would be consistent with our expectations for 
the 'A' rating.

UTC's excellent business risk profile reflects the company's substantial 
operating and global diversity, strong positions in its key markets, and its 
portfolio of technologically advanced products--all characteristics that the 
acquisition of Goodrich Corp. has recently strengthened. UTC also has a good 
track record of operational execution, in our view. Although the company's 
markets will remain cyclical and competitive, UTC's portfolio is well-balanced 
among businesses tied to different stages of the economic cycle. The company 
services a large installed base of equipment that should continue to generate 
high-margin aftermarket revenues, contributing to stability. 

We believe the acquisition of Goodrich has enhanced UTC's overall business 
profile by consolidating and expanding UTC's Hamilton Sundstrand subsidiary 
market position in various aerospace systems. Goodrich will be combined with 
Hamilton Sundstrand to create the new UTC Aerospace Systems business unit. 
Together with Pratt & Whitney and Sikorsky, commercial aerospace and 
defense-related business will account for about 30% and 20%, respectively, of 
UTC's total revenues. UTC will derive the remaining 50% of revenues from its 
building technologies businesses, Otis and UTC Climate Control & Security. 

Although we consider UTC's businesses to have favorable overall long-term 
growth prospects, performance will remain correlated with global GDP trends 
and business conditions in the construction, aerospace, and defense markets. 
We expect UTC's operating performance to remain solid and fairly steady and 
for the company to have EBITDA margins of about 15% and return on capital of 
about 20%, with some modest variability over the cycle. These measures compare 
well both with most peers in specific segments in which UTC competes (for 
example, Rolls-Royce PLC and Ingersoll-Rand PLC) and with those of diversified industrial peers such as 
Honeywell International Inc. (A/Stable/A-1), General Electric Co. 
(AA+/Stable/A-1+), and Siemens AG (A+/Positive/A-1+). We expect the addition 
of Goodrich will enhance UTC's overall profitability and further support its 
cash flow generation. 

With slower global economic growth, we expect overall revenue growth at a low- 
to mid-single-digit rate over the next two to three years, reflecting 
double-digit growth in demand for original equipment (OE) for the commercial 
aerospace businesses, modestly negative revenue performance in the 
defense-related businesses, and global GDP-like growth for the building 
technologies businesses and the aftermarket aerospace businesses. In addition, 
we expect that the company will retain steady profit margins, reflecting 
continued focus on productivity improvement across the portfolio to offset 
cost inflation and competitive pressures. Initial integration costs could 
partly offset the higher profitability of the Goodrich business and benefits 
from overall higher business volumes. 

We view UTC's financial risk profile as intermediate. To fund the Goodrich 
acquisition, the company increased debt significantly. We estimate that total 
funded debt at closing was about $27 billion, (including $2.3 billion of 
Goodrich debt and about $3 billion of commercial paper, which we expect will 
be repaid with repatriated excess cash in the next six months, and excluding 
mandatory convertible notes) with an additional $5 billion of debt adjustment 
for pension and lease obligations. We assume funded debt will fall to less 
than $22 billion by year-end 2012 with proceeds from divestitures and internal 
cash flows, which should translate in pro forma debt to EBITDA below 2.5x. We 
also assume UTC will return to more active share repurchases in 2013 but that 
these--and acquisition spending--will be calibrated to cash flow generation 
and allow for up to $2 billion in additional debt reduction in 2013, leading 
to further leverage and cash flow coverage improvement.

Liquidity
Our short-term rating on UTC is 'A-1'. We expect the company will maintain 
"strong" liquidity. In addition to commercial paper borrowings, UTC has about 
$3 billion of term debt maturing in the next two years. Although this is 
substantial, the company's internal and external liquidity sources are 
significant. Because the company has announced definitive agreements with 
respect to certain divestitures, we have included expected net proceeds in our 
liquidity sources.

We have assumed the following liquidity sources: 
     -- About $6 billion of annual free cash flow; 
     -- Cash balances of about $4.5 billion after the closing of the 
International Aero Engine transaction; 
     -- Expected net divestiture proceeds of about $3.5 billion; and 
     -- Full availability of $4 billion in committed credit facilities that 
expire in 2016. The facilities are available as backup for UTC's commercial 
paper program and do not include maintenance financial covenants.

In addition, we believe the company has demonstrated good access to the 
capital markets to roll over debt maturities.

Primary uses of liquidity include: 
     -- Debt maturities, including outstanding commercial paper of about $3 
billion after the closing of Goodrich, a $2 billion term loan due in December 
2012, and $1 billion notes due in December 2013;
     -- Annual dividends of $1.7 billion; and 
     -- Acquisitions and share buybacks, which we expect the company to resume 
at a measured pace in 2013, although these are more discretionary and would 
likely be curtailed to preserve liquidity if needed. 

Outlook
The outlook is stable. We expect the company will use divestiture proceeds and 
its cash flow generation to reduce debt and restore its balance sheet profile, 
such that credit measures will, by the end of 2013, be in line with our 
expectations for the 'A' rating. These would include, among others, adjusted 
FFO to total debt of 35% to 40%. 

We could consider a lower rating if UTC departs from its debt reduction 
commitments, or engages in acquisitions or shareholder initiatives that 
meaningfully delay or compromise the improvement we expect. Although we 
believe the rating can accommodate a weaker economy, a global recession that 
would result in a double-digit EBITDA decline--and cause FFO to debt to 
stagnate around 30%--with limited prospect for subsequent improvements could 
also lead to a downgrade.

We could raise the rating if FFO to debt improves to more than 45% for a 
sustained period as a result of positive operating and cash flow performance, 
and if management commits to pursuing financial policies that are more 
conservative than recently demonstrated, including in its financing of 
acquisitions.

Related Criteria And Research
     -- Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Sept. 28, 2011
     -- Business Risk/Financial Risk Matrix Expanded, May 27, 2009
     -- Hybrid Capital Handbook: September 2008 Edition, Sept. 15, 2008
     -- 2008 Corporate Criteria: Analytical Methodology, April 15, 2008


Ratings List
Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Action
                                        To                 From
United Technologies Corp.
 Corporate Credit Rating                A/Stable/A-1       A/Negative/A-1

Ratings Affirmed

United Technologies Corp.
 Senior Unsecured                       A                  
 Junior Subordinated                    BBB+               
 Commercial Paper                       A-1
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