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TEXT-S&P revises Nacional del Petroleo outlook to stable

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Mon Jul 30, 2012 4:15pm EDT

(The following statement was released by the rating agency)

Overview
     -- Chile-based oil and gas company ENAP's stand-alone credit profile 
(SACP) continues to weaken due to volatile profitability and weak cash flow 
generation.
     -- We are revising our outlook to stable from positive and the SACP to 
'b' from 'b+', and affirming the 'BBB-' ratings.
     -- The stable outlook still reflects our expectation that there is a very 
high likelihood that the Republic of Chile would provide timely and sufficient 
extraordinary support to the company in the event of a financial distress. 


Rating Action
On July 30, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services revised its outlook on 
Empresa Nacional del Petroleo (ENAP) to stable from positive. At the same 
time, we revised the company's SACP to 'b' from 'b+'. In addition, we affirmed 
our 'BBB-' ratings on ENAP. 

Rationale
The SACP revision reflects ENAP's deteriorating financial performance, 
particularly in the refining and marketing segment. This is due to lower 
global refining margins, a relative appreciation of price for its crude oil , 
and rising energy costs. ENAP's high debt continues to weaken capital 
structure and credit metrics. Because we expect the firm's free cash flow to 
be negative in the next 12 months, ENAP is likely to continue refinancing most 
of its short-term maturities, which will gradually increase its gross debt. We 
expect that ENAP will continue to post funds from operations to total debt of 
less than 5% and total debt to EBITDA of more than 10x during the next two 
years amid continuing tight refining margins. 

The SACP on the company incorporate its dominant as Chile's only domestic oil 
refiner, volatility and cyclicality in international refining margins, weak 
profitability and cash flow generation, and high debt and difficulties 
reducing it because of very limited free operating cash flow. The SACP also 
incorporates ENAP's enhanced financial flexibility and ability to tap credit 
market thanks to government ownership. We continue to assess the company's 
business risk profile as fair and its financial risk profile as highly 
leveraged.

At the same time, the ratings on ENAP reflect our opinion that there is a very 
high likelihood that the Republic of Chile (foreign currency: A+/Positive/A-1; 
local currency: AA/Positive/A-1+) would provide timely and sufficient 
extraordinary support to the company in the event of financial distress. 

In accordance with our criteria for government-related entities, our view of a 
very high likelihood of extraordinary government support is based on our 
assessment of ENAP's very important role as Chile's only domestic oil refiner: 
ENAP supplies about 70% of the local market's needs. The company also has a 
very strong link with the Chilean state, particularly regarding debt 
authorization, budget approval, and tax payments.

Liquidity
We assess ENAP's liquidity on a stand-alone basis as less than adequate. Our 
assessment incorporates ENAP's very good access to refinancing, good standing 
in credit markets, and sound relationship with banks, due to its government 
ownership. 
As of March 31, 2012, ENAP had about $222 million in cash and short-term 
investments. In 2012, following a weak first quarter, we believe that the 
company will likely generate annual EBITDA below $300 million, pay interest 
payments of approximately $200 million, and fund capital expenditures of $250 
million. Due to the company's very low or negative free cash flow, we 
anticipate ENAP will continue to gradually increase its debt and refinance the 
$668 million immaturity due 2012 and $338 million due 2013). We don't expect 
ENAP to pay dividends in 2012.ENAP's financial debt doesn't not have financial 
covenants.

Outlook
The stable outlook reflects our expectation that ENAP will continue to play a 
very important role in Chile's energy policy. Any rating upside is limited at 
this point and would depend on a significant improvement in the company's 
SACP, for example, if it's able to materially reduce debt. We could lower the 
rating if, in the next 12 months, there is further deterioration in ENAP's 
stand alone credit quality or if we perceive that the company has become less 
important to the Chilean government.

Related Criteria And Research
     -- Key Credit Factors: Criteria For Rating The Global Oil Refining 
Industry, Nov. 28, 2011
     -- Rating Government-Related Entities: Methodology And Assumptions, Dec. 
9, 2010
     -- Stand-Alone Credit Profiles: One Component Of A Rating, Oct. 1, 2010
     -- Key Credit Factors: Business And Financial Risks In The Oil And Gas 
Exploration And Production Industry, Nov. 10, 2008
     -- 2008 Corporate Criteria: Analytical Methodology, April 15, 2008

Ratings List

Ratings Affirmed; CreditWatch/Outlook Action
                                        To                 From
Empresa Nacional del Petroleo
 Corporate Credit Rating
  Foreign Currency                      BBB-/Stable/--     BBB-/Positive/--
 Senior Unsecured                       BBB-               

 (Caryn Trokie, New York Ratings Unit)
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