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TEXT-Fitch cuts 3 below-investment-grade classes of N-Star VIII
Aug 7 - Fitch Ratings has downgraded three and affirmed 12 classes of N-Star REL CDO VIII, Ltd./LLC (N-Star VIII) reflecting Fitch's base case loss expectation of 47.4%. Fitch's performance expectation incorporates prospective views regarding commercial real estate market value and cash flow declines. A detailed list of rating actions follows at the end of this release. The transaction exited its reinvestment period in February 2012. Since the last rating action, six assets were no longer in the pool. One asset was repaid in full, while five others were removed with total realized losses of approximately $48 million. Eleven new assets were added to the pool with total built par of approximately $37 million. Since the last rating action, total paydown to classes A-1 and A-R was $4.4 million. As of the July 2012 trustee report, all overcollateralization and interest coverage tests were in compliance. The commercial real estate loan portion of the collateral pool is made up of 54.3% whole loans/A-notes, 24.1% mezzanine debt, 7.7% preferred equity, and 2.5% B-notes. The rated securities portion of the collateral pool comprises 7.8% commercial real estate collateralized debt obligations (CRE CDO) and 2.6% commercial mortgage-backed securities (CMBS). The rated securities have a weighted average Fitch-derived rating of 'CCC+/CCC' compared to 'CCC/CCC-' at the last rating action. Defaulted assets make up 3% of the pool and include one CMBS bond (2.4%) and one CRE CDO bond (0.7%). An additional 14 loans (39.4%) were identified as Loans of Concern and include eight whole loans/A-notes (29.5%), two B-notes (2%), and four mezzanine loans (7.9%). Fitch modeled significant to full losses on the defaulted assets and Loans of Concern. Under Fitch's surveillance methodology, approximately 86.8% of the portfolio is modeled to default in the base case stress scenario, defined as the 'B' stress. In this scenario, the modeled average cash flow decline is 7.4% from, generally, year-end 2011 or trailing 12-month first quarter 2012). Fitch estimates that average recoveries will be moderate at 45.3%. The largest component of Fitch's base case loss expectation is the modeled loss on the rated securities portion of the collateral (10.4% of the pool). The next largest component of Fitch's base case loss expectation is a mezzanine loan (6.2%) secured by interests in a 2.2 million square foot office complex located in Chicago, Illinois. Although current occupancy is greater than 90% and performance has been relatively stable, the property cash flow does not support debt service on a stressed basis. Fitch modeled a term default with a full loss under the base case stress scenario. The third largest component of Fitch's base case loss expectation is a mezzanine loan (4.2%) secured by interests in a portfolio of 12 retail properties located in Phoenix, Arizona. Fitch modeled a term default with a full loss under its base case scenario due to the loan's high leverage under Fitch's base case stress scenario. This transaction was analyzed according to the 'Surveillance Criteria for U.S. CREL CDOs and CMBS Large Loan Floating-Rate Transactions', which applies stresses to property cash flows and debt service coverage ratio tests to project future default levels for the underlying portfolio. Recoveries are based on stressed cash flows and Fitch's long-term capitalization rates. The default levels were then compared to the breakeven levels generated by Fitch's cash flow model of the CDO under the various default timing and interest rate stress scenarios, as described in the report 'Global Criteria for Cash Flow Analysis in CDOs'. Based on this analysis, the breakeven rates for classes A-1, A-R, A-2, and B are generally consistent with the ratings assigned below. The Negative Outlook on classes A-1, A-R, A-2, and B reflects the expectation for further potential negative credit migration of the underlying collateral. The 'CCC' and below ratings for classes C through N are based on a deterministic analysis that considers Fitch's base case loss expectation for the pool and the current percentage of defaulted assets and Fitch Loans of Concern factoring in anticipated recoveries relative to each class' credit enhancement. N-Star VIII was initially issued as a $900 million CRE CDO managed by NS Advisors, LLC. The transaction has a five-year reinvestment period during which principal proceeds may be used to invest in substitute collateral. The reinvestment period ends in February 2012. In November 2009, $31.1 million of notes were surrendered to the trustee for cancellation. Fitch has downgraded the following classes as indicated: --$60,300,000 class B to 'Bsf' from 'BBsf'; Outlook Negative; --$24,300,000 class C to 'CCCsf' from 'Bsf'; RE 0%; --$17,100,000 class D to 'CCCsf' from 'Bsf'; RE 0%; In addition, Fitch has affirmed the following classes as indicated: --$98,778,422 class A-1 at 'BBBsf'; Outlook Negative; --$256,823,897 class A-R at 'BBBsf'; Outlook Negative; --$103,050,000 class A-2 at 'BBsf'; Outlook Negative; --$22,050,000 class E at 'CCCsf'; RE 0%; --$25,200,000 class F at 'CCCsf'; RE 0%; --$9,100,000 class G at 'CCCsf'; RE 0%; --$20,700,000 class H at 'CCCsf'; RE 0%; --$12,000,000 class J at 'CCCsf'; RE 0%; --$18,900,000 class K at 'CCCsf'; RE 0%; --$22,050,000 class L at 'CCCsf'; RE 0%; --$14,850,000 class M at 'CCCsf'; RE 0%; --$22,500,000 class N at 'CCCsf'; RE 0%. Additional information is available at 'www.fitchratings.com'. The ratings above were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, Fitch has been compensated for the provision of the ratings. Applicable Criteria and Related Research: --'Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria' (June 6, 2012); --'Surveillance Criteria for U.S. CREL CDOs and CMBS Large Loan Floating-Rate Transactions' (Dec. 1, 2011); --'Global Rating Criteria for Structured Finance CDOs' (Oct. 6, 2011); --'Global Criteria for Cash Flow Analysis in CDOs' (Sept. 15, 2011). Applicable Criteria and Related Research: Global Criteria for Cash Flow Analysis in CDOs Global Rating Criteria for Structured Finance CDOs Surveillance Criteria for U.S. CREL CDOs and CMBS Large Loan Floating-Rate Transactions Global Structured Finance Rating Criteria
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