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TEXT-Fitch affirms Northern Rock Asset Management covered bonds
Aug 9 - Fitch Ratings has affirmed Northern Rock Asset Management plc's (NRAM, 'A'/Negative/'F1') outstanding GBP5.704bn mortgage covered bonds at 'AAA', following a review of the programme. The bonds constitute direct obligations of NRAM and are guaranteed by Northern Rock Covered Bond LLP, a special-purpose vehicle established for the purpose of the programme. The rating of the covered bonds is based on NRAM's Long-Term Issuer Default Rating (IDR) of 'A' and a D-Factor of 34.7%, the combination of which enables the mortgage covered bonds to be rated as high as 'AA' on a probability of default (PD) basis. The rating also reflects the quality of the collateral and the overcollateralisation (OC) between the cover assets and the covered bonds. The asset percentage (AP) supporting the 'AAA' rating remains unchanged from the previous review in August 2011 at 61.9%. For issuers rated 'F2' or above, Fitch relies on the highest observed nominal AP over the past 12 months, which is 55.3%. This is sufficient to pass 'AA' stress scenarios, and provides for high recoveries given default of the covered bonds in a 'AAA' scenario. All else being equal, the covered bonds can be maintained at 'AAA' as long as NRAM's IDR remains at least 'A'. The D-Factor reflects the strong asset segregation of the cover pool in a bankruptcy-remote special purpose entity, a one-month interest reserve that protects against liquidity gaps following issuer insolvency and a 12-month extendible maturity on the covered bonds. It also reflects the contractual provisions for the guarantor to take decisions after issuer default, aided by the adequate quality of NRAM's IT systems and swap counterparty arrangements. At 30 June 2012, the cover pool consisted of 71,276 loans with an aggregate outstanding balance of GBP9.537bn. The GIC account, guaranteed by HM Treasury, stands at GBP2.053bn. The weighted-average (WA) original loan to value of the cover pool is 84.9%. Of the portfolio, 66.2% are interest-only mortgages and 18.3% are fixed rate and the pool is seasoned with a WA seasoning of 5.7 years. The portfolio is diversified across the UK, with concentrations in Greater London (12.5%) and the South East (24.7%). In a 'AAA' stress scenario, Fitch has calculated the pool's cumulative WA frequency of foreclosure to be 41.6% with a WA recovery rate of 47.4%. Fitch will monitor the key characteristics of the cover assets and outstanding covered bonds on an ongoing basis, and check whether the AP taken into account in its analysis provides protection commensurate with the rating. The level of AP supporting the rating is affected by, among other factors, the profile of the cover assets relative to outstanding covered bonds, which can change over time, even in the absence of new issuances. Therefore, it cannot be assumed that the rating will remain stable over time. Fitch has published an exposure draft outlining a number of enhancements to its criteria for rating covered bonds (see 'Fitch: Exposure Draft: Global Covered Bonds Rating Criteria' dated 30 May 2012 at www.fitchratings.com). If implemented as proposed and all else being equal, the criteria changes may have an impact on the rating of NRAM's covered bonds. Additional information is available on www.fitchratings.com. The ratings above were solicited by, or on behalf of, the issuer, and therefore, Fitch has been compensated for the provision of the ratings. Applicable criteria, 'Covered Bonds Rating Criteria', dated 30 May 2012, 'Covered Bonds Counterparty Criteria', dated 13 March 2012, 'EMEA Residential Mortgage Loss Criteria Addendum - UK', dated 12 August 2012 and 'EMEA Residential Mortgage Loss Criteria', dated 7 June 2012 are available on www.fitchratings.com Applicable Criteria and Related Research: Covered Bonds Rating Criteria Covered Bonds Counterparty Criteria EMEA Residential Mortgage Loss Criteria EMEA Criteria Addendum - United Kingdom - Mortgage and Cashflow Assumptions
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