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TEXT-S&P revises Ecopetrol outlook to positive from stable

Thu Aug 16, 2012 3:12pm EDT

Overview
     -- On Aug. 15, 2012, we revised our outlook on Colombia to positive from 
stable.
     -- We are revising our outlook on Colombia-based oil and gas company 
Ecopetrol to positive from stable and affirming our 'BBB-' ratings on the 
company.
     -- The positive outlook on Ecopetrol reflects our expectation that we 
would raise the ratings on the company if we upgrade the Republic of Colombia.


Rating Action
On Aug. 16, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services revised its outlook on 
Ecopetrol S.A. to positive from stable. At the same time, we affirmed
our 'BBB-' ratings on the company.

Rationale
The outlook revision and rating affirmation on Ecopetrol follows the recent 
outlook revision on the Republic of Colombia to positive from stable.

In accordance with our criteria on government-related entities and assuming no 
changes in the current likelihood of extraordinary support from the 
government, the outlook revision on Ecopetrol reflects the fact that a 
potential upgrade of Colombia would lead to a similar rating action on the 
company. This is due to our assessment that there is a high likelihood that 
the government would provide timely and extraordinary support to Ecopetrol in 
case of financial distress. In addition, we assess the company's stand-alone 
credit profile (SACP) at 'bbb-'.
 
Outlook
The positive outlook on Ecopetrol reflects that on the Republic of Colombia. 
We could raise the ratings on the company if we upgrade the sovereign. A 
downgrade is unlikely at this point. Incorporating the high likelihood that 
Ecopetrol's main shareholder, the government, would provide timely and 
sufficient extraordinary support to the company, if necessary, and the current 
sovereign rating on Colombia, the company's SACP would have to fall below 'bb' 
to result in a downgrade.


Related Criteria And Research
     -- Republic of Colombia Outlook Revised To Positive; Ratings Affirmed, 
Aug. 15, 2012
     -- Rating Government-Related Entities: Methodology And Assumptions, Dec. 
9, 2010
     -- Stand-Alone Credit Profiles: One Component Of A Rating, Oct. 1, 2010
     -- 2008 Corporate Criteria: Analytical Methodology, April 15, 2008


Ratings List
Ratings Affirmed; CreditWatch/Outlook Action
                                        To                 From
Ecopetrol S.A.
 Corporate Credit Rating                BBB-/Positive/--   BBB-/Stable/--
 Senior Unsecured                       BBB-               

Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on 
the Global Credit Portal at www.globalcreditportal.com. All ratings affected 
by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at 
www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left 
column.
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