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TEXT-S&P cuts Washington Real Investment Trust ratings

Thu Aug 23, 2012 5:20pm EDT

Overview
     -- Washington Real Estate Investment Trust faces soft demand for
office space in its core market, which we believe, along with near-term
refinancing of draws on revolvers and cash dilution from portfolio
repositioning, will pressure fixed-charge coverage.
     -- We lowered our corporate credit and senior unsecured debt ratings on 
Washington Real Estate Investment Trust to 'BBB' from 'BBB+' after revising 
our assessment of the company's competitive position relative to similarly 
rated peers, given its portfolio concentration and recently weaker than 
expected operating performance. 
     -- The stable outlook reflects our expectation for modestly weaker but 
still sound and relatively stable fixed-charge coverage with internal growth 
in the company's multifamily and retail segments partially offsetting 
operating weakness in its office portfolio.

Rating Action
On Aug. 23, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its corporate 
credit and senior unsecured debt ratings on Washington Real Estate Investment 
Trust (WRIT) to 'BBB' from 'BBB+'. The outlook is stable. The rating actions 
affect approximately $610 million in outstanding senior unsecured notes (see 
list).
Rationale
The downgrade reflects our revised assessment of the company's competitive 
position relative to similarly rated peers given its portfolio concentration 
and recently weaker-than-expected operating performance. We also believe soft 
demand for office space in the Washington D.C., metro area, near-term 
refinancing of draws on revolving credit facilities, and cash flow dilution 
from portfolio repositioning will put some pressure on the company's debt 
coverage measures.

Our ratings on WRIT reflect the company's "satisfactory" business risk 
profile, which is characterized by a comparatively smaller and geographically 
concentrated, diversified commercial real estate portfolio. Our ratings also 
reflect the company's "intermediate" financial risk profile, which is 
supported by moderate leverage, sound fixed-charge coverage, and adequate 
liquidity.

Rockville, Md.-based WRIT is an established, but comparatively small REIT with 
a market capitalization of roughly $3.0 billion. All of the company's 
properties are in the high-barrier, Washington, D.C., metro area. WRIT is 
unique among rated U.S. REITs in that its investment holdings are 
geographically concentrated but diversified by property type. As of June 30, 
2012, WRIT derived 48.5% of its net operating income (NOI) from 27 office 
properties, 21.3% from 16 retail centers, 15.6% from 11 multifamily 
properties, and 14.6% from 18 medical office properties. We estimate that 
WRIT's five largest assets contribute about 22% of NOI and top 10 tenants 
contribute 23% of annualized rent. Although WRIT's properties are older and 
smaller than those of its more geographically diversified REIT peers, we 
believe the majority of its portfolio is consistent in quality with competing 
product. We also believe that WRIT's asset quality should continue to 
gradually improve over the next few years as the company continues to 
reposition its portfolio.

During the second quarter of 2012, WRIT acquired an office building in 
Arlington, Va., for $52 million and was under contract to sell one medical 
office building northeast of Baltimore, Md. The company is also marketing two 
office buildings in Maryland and plans to commence two multifamily development 
projects ($139 million estimated cost) in Northern Virginia over the next few 
quarters. We anticipate that WRIT may annually pursue up to $100 million in 
net acquisitions over the next two years, and we believe the company intends 
to fund growth in a leverage-neutral manner. However, we note that the 
company's portfolio repositioning will likely be dilutive to cash flow, given 
the expected yield differential between older assets being sold (higher 
yielding) and those being acquired (lower yielding).

Soft leasing conditions for office and medical office space in many of WRIT's 
submarkets contributed to an overall 0.7% same-store NOI decline (on a cash 
basis) during the second quarter. Similar to the first quarter, same-store 
rent spreads (up 2.1%) were positive in each of WRIT's property segments but 
same-store physical occupancy dipped 180 basis points (bps; to 89.3%). WRIT 
leased 24% less office and 43% less medical office space during the quarter 
than it averaged during the trailing four quarters, which contributed to 350 
bps lower occupancy (of 84.7%) in its same-store office portfolio and 180 bps 
lower occupancy (of 89.9%) in its same-store medical office portfolio. As a 
result, WRIT's office and medical office portfolios posted same-store NOI 
declines of 5.5% and 8.0%, respectively during the quarter. This 
weaker-than-expected performance was partially offset by 16.4% NOI growth in 
its same-store retail portfolio (due to 3.7% higher revenue and 24.8% lower 
expense) and 2.1% NOI growth in its same-store multifamily portfolio.

We expect WRIT's office portfolio to continue to face very competitive leasing 
conditions over the next two years and now estimate that the company will post 
relatively flat overall same-store NOI growth through 2014. We do believe 
internal growth in the company's stronger multifamily and retail segments will 
partially offset NOI declines in its office portfolio. We also expect its 
medical office portfolio to post flat-to-modestly positive NOI growth during 
this time. Although we expect uncertainty over the federal budget to weigh on 
near-term demand for office space in the Washington, D.C., metro area, we 
believe longer-term fundamentals for the sector are favorable, given its 
prominence as hub to myriad government agencies and related institutions.

The company's overall leverage profile has remained relatively stable over the 
past few years, despite the portfolio repositioning underway: debt-to-total 
capitalization is about 60% on a book-value basis and 40% on a market value 
basis, respectively. As of June 30, 2012, the company's $1.26 billion of debt 
had a weighted average cost of 4.9% and a tenor of 4.8 years. We note that 
about 17.6% of total debt (draws on the revolving credit facilities) was 
floating rate.

Under our revised base-case scenario analysis, we assume flat internal growth, 
$150 million in annual leverage-neutral but modestly dilutive net external 
growth, and a 5.0% debt refinancing cost over the next two years. Under this 
scenario, we estimate that debt-to-EBITDA could increase modestly to the 7x 
area and fixed-charge coverage could decrease to the mid 2x-area (from 6.7x 
and 2.7x, respectively on a trailing-12-month basis in the second quarter of 
2012). Under this scenario, we believe that coverage of the common dividend 
(following the company's recent 31% dividend cut) will remain above 1.0x.
Liquidity

In our view, WRIT has adequate liquidity to cover its capital needs through 
2014. We base our assessment on the following expectations and assumptions:
     -- We expect liquidity sources (including cash, funds from operations 
{FFO}, and revolver availability) to exceed uses by more than 1.2x through 
2014;
     -- We expect liquidity sources to remain positive, even if EBITDA 
declines by more than 15%; and
     -- Compliance with one of the tightest financial covenants could survive 
a 15% drop in EBITDA.
 
WRIT's estimated sources of liquidity (as of June 30, 2012) include $14 
million cash and $278 million availability on two recently extended revolving 
credit facilities that have an aggregate capacity of $500 million (subject to 
$300 million in extension options). We also estimate that WRIT will generate 
between $130 million and $135 million in annual FFO and believe the recent 
dividend cut should free up an estimated $35 million of capital (positioning 
the company to better meet higher expected near-term tenant improvement and 
leasing costs).

Estimated capital needs through 2014 include $4 million in annual principal 
amortization, $20 million in annual property maintenance capital expenditures, 
$80 million in annual dividend distributions, and up to $133 million in 
development spend. WRIT has $60 million 5.125% senior unsecured notes that 
come due on March 15, 2013, and $100 million 5.25% senior unsecured notes that 
come due on Jan. 15, 2014. The company prepaid a $21 million mortgage in the 
third quarter of 2012 and faces $84 million in nonrecourse mortgage debt 
through 2014. We also note that the company has one property under contact for 
sale and estimate that it could pursue up to $100 million in net annual 
discretionary acquisitions through 2014.
Outlook
The stable outlook reflects our expectation for modestly weaker but still 
sound and relatively stable fixed-charge coverage in the mid 2x area over the 
next two years. We believe internal growth in the company's multifamily and 
retail segments will partially offset continued operating weakness in WRIT's 
office portfolio. While we ascribe a low probability to its occurrence, we 
could lower the ratings if fixed-charge coverage drops below 2.2x, if coverage 
of the common dividend declines below 1.0x, or if there were a stumble with 
one of the development projects. An upgrade is unlikely at this time, given 
our expectation for very competitive leasing conditions in the Washington, 
D.C., metro area office sector.
     -- Related Research And CriteriaIndustry Economic And Ratings Outlook: 
North American REIT Ratings Will Likely Remain Stable Despite Slowing Economic 
Growth, July 27, 2012
     -- Issuer Ranking: North American REITs, Strongest To Weakest, July 26, 
2012 
     -- Credit FAQ: How Standard & Poor's Applies Its Liquidity Descriptors 
For Global Corporate Issuers To North American Real Estate Companies, Oct.12, 
2011
     -- Key Credit Factors: Global Criteria For Rating Real Estate Companies, 
June 21, 2011
Ratings List
Rating Lowered
                                        To                 From
Washington Real Estate Investment Trust
 Corporate Credit Rating                BBB/Stable/--      BBB+/Stable/--

Washington Real Estate Investment Trust
 Senior Unsecured                       BBB                BBB+
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