JGB outlook negative for second week - Thomson Reuters survey
TOKYO, Sept 10
TOKYO, Sept 10 (Reuters) - A gauge of sentiment in the Japanese government bond market turned more negative for the second straight week as heightened expectations of U.S. Federal Reserve stimulus and European Central Bank steps to alleviate the debt crisis raised investor risk appetite, a weekly Thomson Reuters survey showed on Monday.
The weekly poll's JGB bull-bear diffusion index, calculated by subtracting the number of bearish market players from those that are bullish, came in at minus 14, below minus 11 in last week's survey.
This week, investors will focus on the Fed's Sept. 12-13 meeting, and whether central bank policy makers will decide to take any action after Friday's disappointing U.S. employment data. U.S. nonfarm payrolls grew by 96,000 jobs in August, sharply below the 125,000 forecast.
Growing expectations of more Fed stimulus bolstered U.S. Treasuries on Friday, though the U.S. yield curve steepened as longer maturities underperformed due to investor concerns about potential inflation from additional easing.
The ECB unveiled a potentially unlimited bond-buying programme last week which will focus on short-dated bonds, aiming to rein in borrowing costs for debt-burdened southern euro zone countries.
The JGB survey found that most respondents did not expect big JGB market moves, with 40.0 percent expecting yields to move sideways, up from 37.0 percent in the previous survey.
Some 37.1 percent of respondents expect yields to rise, nearly flat from 37.0 percent in last week's poll, while 22.9 percent of total respondents expect JGB yields to fall this week, down from 26.1 percent in the previous survey.
The median forecast for the 10-year JGB yield for the end of this week was 0.820 percent, half a basis point above Friday's closing level.
The online survey of 93 JGB market participants from major institutions received 35 responses, for a response rate of 37.6 percent. These included 15 responses from "real money" investors from institutions such as banks, pension and investment funds and insurance companies.
The benchmark 10-year cash note slipped 1.5 basis point on Monday morning to 0.800 percent, while the 10-year JGB futures contract rose 0.17 point to 144.10.
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