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METALS-Copper, zinc hit four-month highs on stimulus hopes

Mon Sep 10, 2012 3:36am EDT

* ShFE copper, zinc touch four-month highs
    * LME copper breaks above $8,000 per tonne
    * China August copper imports fall 2.9 pct on month -
customs
    * QE3 more likely next week after August jobs numbers - poll
    * China approves $150 bln of infrastructure projects


    By Carrie Ho
    SHANGHAI, Sept 10 (Reuters) - Shanghai copper and zinc hit
their highest levels in four months on Monday as hopes that the
United States and China will roll out more stimulus measures
offset a slight decline in China's August copper imports. 
    The Shanghai contracts were also catching up with gains in
London on Friday, when base metals rallied on news of a
$150-billion infrastructure building programme by Beijing and on
hopes of easing by the Federal Reserve after disappointing U.S.
jobs numbers.   
    The most active December copper contract on the Shanghai
Futures Exchange shot up 2.7 percent to the highest
since early May, before closing the session at 58,120 yuan. 
    This was despite a 2.9 percent fall in Chinese copper
imports in August from July, which Great Wall Futures analyst Li
Rong attributed to China's still-sluggish downstream order books
and lower financing demand due to easing credit conditions.
 
    Market players said base metals were mostly bolstered in the
session by expectations of the Fed embarking on another round of
bond purchases, also known as QE3, next week. The chances of
this have jumped after disappointing August U.S. employment
numbers released on Friday, according to a Reuters poll of
economists. 
    "We are mostly looking forward to the Federal Reserve
meeting for announcement of QEIII, which we think will boost
commodities more than infrastructure-building programmes in
China and more policy details from the euro zone," said a
Shanghai-based trader with an international firm. "But if the
Fed doesn't roll out a QEIII soon, base metals prices are
expected to fall."
    ShFE website data showed net daily open interest in Shanghai
copper rising by 8,526 lots, reversing a trend of net daily
decreases during the whole of last week, and showing the entry
of fresh longs. 
    All eyes are also on Europe this week, where key events
include a Sept. 12 ruling by Germany's constitutional court on
the new euro zone bailout fund. 
    Madrid intends to discuss conditions attached to the ECB's
bond-buying plan with euro zone finance ministers this week
while global lenders will return to Athens to assess Greece's
austerity reforms before granting a bailout crucial to keeping
the country afloat. A European Union finance ministers meeting
is set for Sept. 14-15. 
    Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange,
which already hit a near four-month high in the prior session,
had extended gains on Monday by 0.8 percent to $8,030 per tonne
by 0713 GMT. This is the first session in which it has broken
above $8,000 since May 14.
    Shanghai zinc hit a session high of 15,460 yuan,
the highest since early May.
    Shanghai lead rose to a high of 15,910 yuan, the
loftiest since March. Shanghai aluminium touched 15,785
yuan, the highest since mid-June.
    Also helping to spur stimulus hopes was a media report on
Sunday that China would provide subsidies worth $2.2 billion to
buyers of energy-efficient computers and air-conditioners in the
latest effort to encourage the use of environmentally friendly
technology and to stimulate domestic demand, especially after
recent weak economic data.  
    A longer term plan by Beijing to order its dominant
electricity distributors to source up to 15 percent of their
power from renewable energy including wind may also boost the
construction of more energy facilities and boost metals demand. 
    But slow compliance with this order means it may be years
before the country's struggling wind power developers benefit,
industry executives say. 
    In industry news, trading in shares of Glencore
International Plc was suspended in Hong Kong on
Monday, pending the release of information relating to its
proposed all-share merger of equals with Xstrata Plc.
 
                                                               
  Base metals prices at 0713 GMT
  Metal              Last       Change   Pct Move YTD pct chg
  LME Cu            8030.00     60.00     +0.75      5.66
  SHFE CU FUT DEC2    58120      1470     +2.59      4.48
  LME Alum          2044.00     21.00     +1.04      1.19
  SHFE AL FUT DEC2    15780       135     +0.86     -0.38
  HG COPPER DEC2     366.50      2.00     +0.55      6.66
  LME Zinc          1990.25     20.25     +1.03      7.87
  SHFE ZN FUT DEC2    15395       335     +2.22      4.06
  LME Nickel       16712.00    212.00     +1.28    -10.68
  LME Lead          2133.00     38.00     +1.81      4.82
  SHFE PB FUT         15905       405     +2.61      4.02
  LME Tin          20300.00    325.00     +1.63      5.73
  LME/Shanghai arb    1422
 
   Shanghai and COMEX contracts show most active months
   ^ LME 3-m copper in yuan, including 17 pct VAT, minus SHFE 
 third month
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