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TEXT-S&P cuts Education Management LLC rating to 'B'

Fri Sep 21, 2012 4:52pm EDT

Overview
     -- We believe that U.S. for-profit post-secondary school operator 
Education Management LLC will remain under pressure from tough regulations and 
weak economic conditions.
     -- We expect persistent enrollment declines to result in weaker credit 
metrics, a narrow cushion under financial covenants, and lower cash flow 
generation.
     -- We are lowering our long-term corporate credit rating on the company 
to 'B' from 'BB-'. 
     -- The negative rating outlook reflects our view that enrollment declines 
will persist in fiscal-year 2013.
 
Rating Action
On Sept. 21, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its corporate 
credit rating on Pittsburgh, Pa.-based for-profit post-secondary school 
operator Education Management LLC to 'B' from 'BB-'. The rating outlook is 
negative.

At the same time, we revised our recovery rating on the company's senior 
secured credit facilities to '3', reflecting our expectation for meaningful 
(50% to 70%) recovery for lenders in the event of default, from '2' (70% to 
90% recovery expectation). We lowered our issue-level rating on this debt to 
'B' (at the same level as the 'B' corporate credit rating on the company), 
from 'BB', in accordance with our notching criteria for a '3' recovery rating. 

We also lowered our issue-level rating on the company's senior unsecured and 
subordinated notes to 'CCC+' from 'B', in conjunction with the corporate 
credit rating change. The recovery rating on this debt remains at '6' (0% to 
10% recovery expectation). 

Rationale
The downgrade reflects our expectation that tough economic conditions and new 
business practices mandated by tighter regulation will cause ongoing 
enrollment declines over the near term. We lowered our previous expectations 
for revenue, EBITDA, and cash flow after the company recently provided public 
guidance for fiscal-year 2013 ending June 30. Given the fixed costs of the 
business, we expect enrollment declines will lead to weaker credit metrics, 
lower cash flow generation, and tight financial covenants over the next 12 to 
18 months. There is also a springing maturity to the senior secured credit 
facilities, which would be accelerated to March 1, 2014, if the company does 
not refinance or repay the $375 million notes due June 2014 prior to this date.

Our 'B' rating reflects Education Management's dependence on Title IV federal 
student loan programs and students' willingness to take on debt despite weak 
economic conditions and high unemployment. We expect the company's revenue and 
EBITDA trends to remain under significant pressure in fiscal-year 2013 and 
potentially beyond, as changes in marketing practices, negative publicity, and 
increased disclosure requirements to potential students hurt enrollments.

We view Education Management's business risk profile as "vulnerable" (based on 
our criteria) because of the severe pressure of regulatory risk on its good 
market position and business fundamentals. We assess the company's financial 
risk profile as "aggressive," because we expect debt leverage between 4x to 5x 
and minimal discretionary cash flow generation relative to total debt levels.

Education Management is one of the leading for-profit post-secondary education 
providers, offering both traditional and online programs in career-oriented 
disciplines. The company directly or indirectly derived 85% of its fiscal-year 
2012 net revenues from Title IV funding. We consider this high exposure to 
federal student lending as a long-term risk for the company because 
legislative or regulatory actions that result in a substantial reduction in 
funding significantly hurt its profits. Crucial issues relate to the adverse 
consequences of the elimination of the safe harbor provision on incentive 
compensation for schools' student recruiters. In addition, it is now more 
difficult for some students to qualify for federal funding, based on their 
family credit histories. In June 2012, a U.S. District Court vacated possible 
rules on gainful employment. However, the potential for future legislation or 
regulation remains a key risk to the rating.

Historically, annual double-digit gains in same-school enrollment, brisk 
growth in online programs, and increases in average annual tuition led to 
healthy EBITDA growth. In recent quarters, changes in recruiting practices, 
adverse publicity, and broad economic weakness have resulted in high 
single-digit percent declines in revenue, and even greater EBITDA declines. We 
expect enrollment declines to persist in fiscal-year 2013 as a result of these 
factors and have limited visibility into when or if declines could moderate.

Under our base-case scenario, we expect a fiscal-year 2013 revenue decline in 
the high-single-digit percent range and a roughly 20% EBITDA decline. This 
incorporates our assumption that total enrollments will decrease at a mid- to 
high-teens percentage rate in 2013. Declines are reducing capacity utilization 
and creating pressure to discontinue programs or even shut down campuses. We 
expect the EBITDA margin to contract by roughly 150 basis points in 
fiscal-year 2013, as we see limited flexibility to reduce costs to offset top 
line pressure. 

In the fourth fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2012, the company's revenue 
declined 8.1% year over year, largely as a result of enrollment declines. 
During the quarter, total enrollment declined 9.3%, while new enrollment 
declined 20.1%. Over the same period, EBITDA plummeted 33%, primarily as a 
result of higher educational services and general and administrative expenses 
from new fixed-cost compensation plans. The EBITDA margin for the 12 months 
ended June 30, 2012, was 18.9%, down sharply from 22.9% a year ago, reflecting 
increasing costs.

For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2012, lease-adjusted debt to EBITDA was 
4.5x--up from 3.7x a year ago--because of lower EBITDA more than offsetting 
modest debt repayment. The company's debt leverage is just below the 5x 
threshold that our criteria generally associate with a "highly leveraged" 
financial risk profile, but is likely to rise further. Our assessment 
incorporates our expectation that leverage could fall within this range in the 
near term. Adjusted EBITDA coverage of interest was 3.2x for the 
period--slightly worse than 3.7x a year ago--primarily because of EBITDA 
declines.

We expect lease-adjusted debt to EBITDA to increase to the low-5x area in 
fiscal-year 2013, given our expectation of continued revenue and EBITDA 
declines. We also expect that EBITDA coverage of interest will weaken to the 
high-2x area in 2013.

Discretionary cash flow swung negative over the last 12 months as a result of 
weak operating trends and partially because the company used balance sheet 
cash to collateralize letters of credit required by the Department of 
Education. We expect discretionary cash flow to become slightly positive in 
2013 as this one-time working capital swing should not occur. Given weak 
operating conditions, we expect cash flow generation to be minimal over the 
near term and believe discretionary cash flow could be negative in 2013 if the 
rate of decline exceeds our current expectations.

Liquidity
We believe that Education Management has "less than adequate" liquidity 
sources to cover its cash needs over the next 12 to 18 months. Our assessment 
includes the following expectations and assumptions:
     -- We expect the company's sources of liquidity over the next 12 to 18 
months to be about 1x. 
     -- We expect the company's net sources to be about zero over the next 12 
months.
     -- The company would not be able to maintain covenant compliance with a 
10% or greater decrease in EBITDA from our base-case scenario over the next 12 
months.
     -- In our view, the company may not be able to absorb low-probability, 
high-impact events over the next 12 to 18 months.
 
Liquidity sources as of June 30, 2012, included cash balances of $191 million, 
and we expect the company to have modest positive discretionary cash flow in 
fiscal-year 2013. Uses of cash include capital expenditures of about $100 
million in 2013 and a manageable 1% term loan amortization over the next 12 
months. The company had a 35% cushion against its total leverage covenant of 
4x as of June 30, 2012. In addition, the company had 48% headroom against its 
interest coverage covenant. The leverage covenant steps down to 3.5x on Sept. 
30, 2012. If recent operating trends do not reverse, we believe the company 
may be unable to meet the leverage covenant test over the next 12 months. We 
expect the company will need to use cash balances to pay down debt and could 
require an amendment to avoid a covenant violation. 

Recovery Analysis
For the complete recovery analysis, see our recovery report on Education 
Management, to be published following the release of this report.

Outlook
The negative rating outlook reflects our view that enrollment declines will 
persist in fiscal-year 2013. Given the current cost structure and current rate 
of decline, we could lower the rating if we become convinced that covenant 
headroom will fall below 15% without any immediate prospect of recovering. We 
could also lower the rating if we become convinced that discretionary cash 
flow will become negative on a sustained basis or if enrollment declines are 
greater than anticipated in our base case scenario.

Although less likely over the intermediate term, we could consider revising 
the rating outlook to stable if the company successfully repays or refinances 
its 2014 debt maturities  and enrollment trends appear to have stabilized, 
leading to revenue and EBITDA growth and meaningful positive discretionary 
cash flow.

Related Criteria And Research
     -- Methodology: Business Risk/Financial Risk Matrix Expanded, Sept. 18, 
2012
     -- Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Sept. 28, 2011
     -- Standard & Poor's Revises Its Approach To Rating Speculative-Grade 
Credits, May 13, 2008
     -- 2008 Corporate Criteria: Analytical Methodology, April 15, 2008
     -- 2008 Corporate Criteria: Rating Each Issue, April 15, 2008
     -- 2008 Corporate Criteria: Ratios And Adjustments, April 15, 2008
 
Ratings List

Downgraded
                                           To                 From
Education Management LLC
 Corporate Credit Rating                   B/Negative/--      BB-/Negative/--
 Senior Secured                            B                  BB
   Recovery Rating                         3                  2
 Senior Unsecured                          CCC+               B
   Recovery Rating                         6                  6
 Subordinated                              CCC+               B
   Recovery Rating                         6                  6
 


Complete ratings information is available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on 
the Global Credit Portal at www.globalcreditportal.com. All ratings affected 
by this rating action can be found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at 
www.standardandpoors.com. Use the Ratings search box located in the left 
column.

Primary Credit Analyst: Chris E Valentine, New York (1) 212-438-1434;
                        chris_valentine@standardandpoors.com
Secondary Contact: Hal F Diamond, New York (1) 212-438-7829;
                   harold_diamond@standardandpoors.com


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 Time          USN   User   Headline
 21/09/2012    WNA5  WE     S&P LOWERS RATING ON EDUCATION
 16:50:29      40    SCRIP  MANAGEMENT TO 'B' FROM 'BB-'
 Overview -- We believe that U.S. for-profit post-secondary school operator
Education Management LLC will remain under pressure from tough regulations and
weak economic conditions. -- We expect persistent enrollment declines to result
in weaker credit metrics, a narrow cushion under financial covenants, and lower
cash flow generation. -- We are lowering our long-term corporate credit rating
on the company to 'B' from 'BB-'. -- The negative rating outlook reflects our
view that enrollment declines will persist in fiscal-year 2013. Rating Action On
Sept. 21, 2012, Standard & Poor's Ratings Services lowered its corporate credit
rating on Pittsburgh, Pa.-based for-profit post-secondary school operator
Education Management LLC to 'B' from 'BB-'. The rating outlook is negative. At
the same time, we revised our recovery rating on the company's senior secured
credit facilities to '3', reflecting our expectation for meaningful (50% to 70%)
recovery for lenders in the event of default, from '2' (70% to 90% recovery
expectation). We lowered our issue-level rating on this debt to 'B' (at the same
level as the 'B' corporate credit rating on the company), from 'BB', in
accordance with our notching criteria for a '3' recovery rating. We also lowered
our issue-level rating on the company's senior unsecured and subordinated notes
to 'CCC+' from 'B', in conjunction with the corporate credit rating change. The
recovery rating on this debt remains at '6' (0% to 10% recovery expectation).
Rationale The downgrade reflects our expectation that tough economic conditions
and new business practices mandated by tighter regulation will cause ongoing
enrollment declines over the near term. We lowered our previous expectations for
revenue, EBITDA, and cash flow after the company recently provided public
guidance for fiscal-year 2013 ending June 30. Given the fixed costs of the
business, we expect enrollment declines will lead to weaker credit metrics,
lower cash flow generation, and tight financial covenants over the next 12 to 18
months. There is also a springing maturity to the senior secured credit
facilities, which would be accelerated to March 1, 2014, if the company does not
refinance or repay the $375 million notes due June 2014 prior to this date. Our
'B' rating reflects Education Management's dependence on Title IV federal
student loan programs and students' willingness to take on debt despite weak
economic conditions and high unemployment. We expect the company's revenue and
EBITDA trends to remain under significant pressure in fiscal-year 2013 and
potentially beyond, as changes in marketing practices, negative publicity, and
increased disclosure requirements to potential students hurt enrollments. We
view Education Management's business risk profile as "vulnerable" (based on our
criteria) because of the severe pressure of regulatory risk on its good market
position and business fundamentals. We assess the company's financial risk
profile as "aggressive," because we expect debt leverage between 4x to 5x and
minimal discretionary cash flow generation relative to total debt levels.
Education Management is one of the leading for-profit post-secondary education
providers, offering both traditional and online programs in career-oriented
disciplines. The company directly or indirectly derived 85% of its fiscal-year
2012 net revenues from Title IV funding. We consider this high exposure to
federal student lending as a long-term risk for the company because legislative
or regulatory actions that result in a substantial reduction in funding
significantly hurt its profits. Crucial issues relate to the adverse
consequences of the elimination of the safe harbor provision on incentive
compensation for schools' student recruiters. In addition, it is now more
difficult for some students to qualify for federal funding, based on their
family credit histories. In June 2012, a U.S. District Court vacated possible
rules on gainful employment. However, the potential for future legislation or
regulation remains a key risk to the rating. Historically, annual double-digit
gains in same-school enrollment, brisk growth in online programs, and increases
in average annual tuition led to healthy EBITDA growth. In recent quarters,
changes in recruiting practices, adverse publicity, and broad economic weakness
have resulted in high single-digit percent declines in revenue, and even greater
EBITDA declines. We expect enrollment declines to persist in fiscal-year 2013 as
a result of these factors and have limited visibility into when or if declines
could moderate. Under our base-case scenario, we expect a fiscal-year 2013
revenue decline in the high-single-digit percent range and a roughly 20% EBITDA
decline. This incorporates our assumption that total enrollments will decrease
at a mid- to high-teens percentage rate in 2013. Declines are reducing capacity
utilization and creating pressure to discontinue programs or even shut down
campuses. We expect the EBITDA margin to contract by roughly 150 basis points in
fiscal-year 2013, as we see limited flexibility to reduce costs to offset top
line pressure. In the fourth fiscal quarter ended June 30, 2012, the company's
revenue declined 8.1% year over year, largely as a result of enrollment
declines. During the quarter, total enrollment declined 9.3%, while new
enrollment declined 20.1%. Over the same period, EBITDA plummeted 33%, primarily
as a result of higher educational services and general and administrative
expenses from new fixed-cost compensation plans. The EBITDA margin for the 12
months ended June 30, 2012, was 18.9%, down sharply from 22.9% a year ago,
reflecting increasing costs. For the fiscal year ended June 30, 2012,
lease-adjusted debt to EBITDA was 4.5x--up from 3.7x a year ago--because of
lower EBITDA more than offsetting modest debt repayment. The company's debt
leverage is just below the 5x threshold that our criteria generally associate
with a "highly leveraged" financial risk profile, but is likely to rise further.
Our assessment incorporates our expectation that leverage could fall within this
range in the near term. Adjusted EBITDA coverage of interest was 3.2x for the
period--slightly worse than 3.7x a year ago--primarily because of EBITDA
declines. We expect lease-adjusted debt to EBITDA to increase to the low-5x area
in fiscal-year 2013, given our expectation of continued revenue and EBITDA
declines. We also expect that EBITDA coverage of interest will weaken to the
high-2x area in 2013. Discretionary cash flow swung negative over the last 12
months as a result of weak operating trends and partially because the company
used balance sheet cash to collateralize letters of credit required by the
Department of Education. We expect discretionary cash flow to become slightly
positive in 2013 as this one-time working capital swing should not occur. Given
weak operating conditions, we expect cash flow generation to be minimal over the
near term and believe discretionary cash flow could be negative in 2013 if the
rate of decline exceeds our current expectations. Liquidity We believe that
Education Management has "less than adequate" liquidity sources to cover its
cash needs over the next 12 to 18 months. Our assessment includes the following
expectations and assumptions: -- We expect the company's sources of liquidity
over the next 12 to 18 months to be about 1x. -- We expect the company's net
sources to be about zero over the next 12 months. -- The company would not be
able to maintain covenant compliance with a 10% or greater decrease in EBITDA
from our base-case scenario over the next 12 months. -- In our view, the company
may not be able to absorb low-probability, high-impact events over the next 12
to 18 months. Liquidity sources as of June 30, 2012, included cash balances of
$191 million, and we expect the company to have modest positive discretionary
cash flow in fiscal-year 2013. Uses of cash include capital expenditures of
about $100 million in 2013 and a manageable 1% term loan amortization over the
next 12 months. The company had a 35% cushion against its total leverage
covenant of 4x as of June 30, 2012. In addition, the company had 48% headroom
against its interest coverage covenant. The leverage covenant steps down to 3.5x
on Sept. 30, 2012. If recent operating trends do not reverse, we believe the
company may be unable to meet the leverage covenant test over the next 12
months. We expect the company will need to use cash balances to pay down debt
and could require an amendment to avoid a covenant violation. Recovery Analysis
For the complete recovery analysis, see our recovery report on Education
Management, to be published following the release of this report. Outlook The
negative rating outlook reflects our view that enrollment declines will persist
in fiscal-year 2013. Given the current cost structure and current rate of
decline, we could lower the rating if we become convinced that covenant headroom
will fall below 15% without any immediate prospect of recovering. We could also
lower the rating if we become convinced that discretionary cash flow will become
negative on a sustained basis or if enrollment declines are greater than
anticipated in our base case scenario. Although less likely over the
intermediate term, we could consider revising the rating outlook to stable if
the company successfully repays or refinances its 2014 debt maturities and
enrollment trends appear to have stabilized, leading to revenue and EBITDA
growth and meaningful positive discretionary cash flow. Related Criteria And
Research -- Methodology: Business Risk/Financial Risk Matrix Expanded, Sept. 18,
2012 -- Liquidity Descriptors For Global Corporate Issuers, Sept. 28, 2011 --
Standard & Poor's Revises Its Approach To Rating Speculative-Grade Credits, May
13, 2008 -- 2008 Corporate Criteria: Analytical Methodology, April 15, 2008 --
2008 Corporate Criteria: Rating Each Issue, April 15, 2008 -- 2008 Corporate
Criteria: Ratios And Adjustments, April 15, 2008 Ratings List Downgraded To From
Education Management LLC Corporate Credit Rating B/Negative/-- BB-/Negative/--
Senior Secured B BB Recovery Rating 3 2 Senior Unsecured CCC+ B Recovery Rating
6 6 Subordinated CCC+ B Recovery Rating 6 6 Complete ratings information is
available to subscribers of RatingsDirect on the Global Credit Portal at
www.globalcreditportal.com. All ratings affected by this rating action can be
found on Standard & Poor's public Web site at www.standardandpoors.com. Use the
Ratings search box located in the left column. Primary Credit Analyst: Chris E
Valentine, New York (1) 212-438-1434; chris_valentine@standardandpoors.com
Secondary Contact: Hal F Diamond, New York (1) 212-438-7829;
harold_diamond@standardandpoors.com No content (including ratings,
credit-related analyses and data, model, software, or other application or
output therefrom) or any part thereof (Content) may be modified, reverse
engineered, reproduced, or distributed in any form by any means, or stored in a
database or retrieval system, without the prior written permission of Standard &
Poor's Financial Services LLC or its affiliates (collectively, S&P). The Content
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with any use of the Content even if advised of the possibility of such damages.
Credit-related and other analyses, including ratings, and statements in the
Content are statements of opinion as of the date they are expressed and not
statements of fact. S&P's opinions, analyses, and rating acknowledgment
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any securities or to make any investment decisions, and do not address the
suitability of any security. S&P assumes no obligation to update the Content
following publication in any form or format. The Content should not be relied on
and is not a substitute for the skill, judgment, and experience of the user, its
management, employees, advisors, and/or clients when making investment and other
business decisions. S&P does not act as a fiduciary or an investment advisor
except where registered as such. While S&P has obtained information from sources
it believes to be reliable, S&P does not perform an audit and undertakes no duty
of due diligence or independent verification of any information it receives. To
the extent that regulatory authorities allow a rating agency to acknowledge in
one jurisdiction a rating issued in another jurisdiction for certain regulatory
purposes, S&P reserves the right to assign, withdraw, or suspend such
acknowledgement at any time and in its sole discretion. S&P Parties disclaim any
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have information that is not available to other S&P business units. S&P has
established policies and procedures to maintain the confidentiality of certain
nonpublic information received in connection with each analytical process. S&P
may receive compensation for its ratings and certain analyses, normally from
issuers or underwriters of securities or from obligors. S&P reserves the right
to disseminate its opinions and analyses. S&P's public ratings and analyses are
made available on its Web sites, www.standardandpoors.com (free of charge), and
www.ratingsdirect.com and www.globalcreditportal.com (subscription), and may be
distributed through other means, including via S&P publications and third-party
redistributors. Additional information about our ratings fees is available at
www.standardandpoors.com/usratingsfees. Any Passwords/user IDs issued by S&P to
users are single user-dedicated and may ONLY be used by the individual to whom
they have been assigned. No sharing of passwords/user IDs and no simultaneous
access via the same password/user ID is permitted. To reprint, translate, or use
the data or information other than as provided herein, contact Client Services,
55 Water Street, New York, NY 10041; (1) 212-438-7280 or by e-mail to:
research_request@standardandpoors.com. Copyright (c) 2012 by Standard & Poor's
Financial Services LLC. All rights reserved. In addition to CreditWire, Standard
& Poor's also offers RatingsDirect, the online source for real-time, objective
credit ratings and research; and RatingsXpress, a real-time, customizable
digital feed of credit information. If you are interested in becoming a
subscriber and would like more information on Standard & Poor's real-time
information products and services, please call: HONG KONG (852) 2533-3500;
LONDON (44) 20-7176-7176; MELBOURNE (61) 3-9631-2000; NEW YORK (1) 212-438-7280;
PARIS (33) 1-4420-6758 NORMAL RATINGS S&P Lowers Rating On Education Management
To 'B' From 'BB-' yes
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